ATL: IRMA - Models

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jasons2k
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9321 Postby jasons2k » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:47 pm

Just an average of the 18z and 12z runs so far. I think everything (except that bad run of the NAM) is locking-in now. Key Largo area/Just SW of Miami-Dade. Checkmate.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9322 Postby pcolaman » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:47 pm

Raebie wrote:899 at the tip.

I think that's 898
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9323 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:48 pm

Raebie wrote:899 at the tip.


GFS might sniff out direction, but I don't think it does very well with intensity.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9324 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:49 pm

GFS doesn't get too bad under 72 hours...regardless, I don't think there's any comfort or solace for South Florida. We're in it deep at this point.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9325 Postby Raebie » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:50 pm

pcolaman wrote:
Raebie wrote:899 at the tip.

I think that's 898


Tropical Tidbits says 899 at 054. Was looking at that.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9326 Postby pcolaman » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:51 pm

Looks like it's gonna be the battle with King Euro and GFS
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9327 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:51 pm

Punishing the coast all the way north

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9328 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:52 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
Raebie wrote:899 at the tip.


GFS might sniff out direction, but I don't think it does very well with intensity.



my concern is the preponderance of models show some lowering of pressure there near in the straight. It may be so big it wont matter at that point though.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9329 Postby pcolaman » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:52 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Punishing the coast all the way north

Image


About the same as last run I believe.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9330 Postby Noles2016 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:54 pm

Very similar to the 18z.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9331 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:57 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9332 Postby got ants? » Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:58 pm

Looking at these models..is that eyewall really 150 miles across?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9333 Postby Tertius » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:02 pm

got ants? wrote:Looking at these models..is that eyewall really 150 miles across?
No it isn't, what made you think it was?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9334 Postby PandaCitrus » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:10 pm

Here is the HD image of the latest 00z GFS zoomed into Miami-Dade county.

Landfall is directly over Downtown Miami.

https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 1500z.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9335 Postby NFLnut » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:11 pm

got ants? wrote:Looking at these models..is that eyewall really 150 miles across?


Not even close.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9336 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:12 pm

CMC and GFS both east a tad but not much, probably noise at this range, but they did trend a bit slower with that NE trough.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9337 Postby got ants? » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:13 pm

NFLnut wrote:
got ants? wrote:Looking at these models..is that eyewall really 150 miles across?


Not even close.


Okay, I guess the colors of the graphics had me confused. Any idea how big it might be (I know this is a Discussion thread comment, but this will be my last question)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9338 Postby boca » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:15 pm

Stuck here in South Florida can't leave its s gridlock
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9339 Postby smithtim » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:16 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


Question in the 11pm they mentioned an elliptical eye rather than symmetric - eg failed to sustain after EWRC - did this current run of gfs have data fed of a symmetrical eye?

If so I don't think that deepening will come to fruition...

Thanks
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9340 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:16 pm

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 72.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2017 0 21.1N 72.0W 936 95
1200UTC 08.09.2017 12 21.4N 74.6W 931 96
0000UTC 09.09.2017 24 21.9N 76.9W 929 91
1200UTC 09.09.2017 36 22.1N 79.0W 944 89
0000UTC 10.09.2017 48 22.6N 80.4W 942 90
1200UTC 10.09.2017 60 23.4N 81.1W 936 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 72 24.9N 81.4W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 84 26.9N 81.4W 933 88
0000UTC 12.09.2017 96 29.5N 81.3W 954 75
1200UTC 12.09.2017 108 32.5N 81.8W 967 62
0000UTC 13.09.2017 120 35.1N 82.5W 990 28
1200UTC 13.09.2017 132 37.2N 83.0W 997 14

it appears to be too far south. Irma is already tracking right of the UKMET points
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