ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rickybobby]

I feel bad for the people who returned their hurricane items yesterday.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080506
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 51 20170908
045630 2138N 07319W 6960 02746 9580 +103 +062 044112 114 113 015 00
045700 2137N 07318W 6967 02707 9544 +107 +059 040113 114 108 021 03
045730 2135N 07317W 6964 02676 9513 +100 +060 038114 117 108 037 00
045800 2134N 07316W 6973 02623 9465 +102 +065 037113 116 107 068 03
045830 2133N 07315W 6965 02584 9405 +111 +069 034110 116 108 050 03
045900 2132N 07313W 6960 02551 9357 +118 +074 029089 104 113 008 03
045930 2131N 07312W 6963 02511 9292 +151 +080 027072 081 068 003 03
050000 2130N 07310W 6958 02501 9264 +156 +086 032047 064 055 002 00
050030 2129N 07308W 6981 02455 9250 +156 +092 043026 037 036 002 03
050100 2128N 07307W 6967 02476 9242 +161 +099 071012 019 021 002 03
050130 2126N 07306W 6973 02463 9238 +164 +105 049002 010 012 001 00
050200 2125N 07306W 6963 02481 9239 +169 +104 273014 019 012 000 00
050230 2123N 07305W 6960 02491 9249 +167 +097 268028 037 032 001 00
050300 2121N 07304W 6963 02505 9267 +166 +090 262053 060 049 001 00
050330 2120N 07303W 6966 02526 9303 +158 +085 256073 079 050 001 03
050400 2118N 07301W 6961 02568 9336 +164 +075 253096 099 /// /// 03
050430 2117N 07300W 6974 02602 9390 +157 +067 250103 103 081 001 00
050500 2115N 07258W 6966 02654 9442 +152 +045 243106 107 080 001 03
050530 2114N 07257W 6957 02698 9474 +157 +039 240101 105 080 000 00
050600 2113N 07256W 6978 02710 9505 +168 +025 234096 100 086 000 03
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

My gut feeling is what I posted before, a landfall of 165mph in SEFL. I think the SSTs, OHC, and overall favorable atmospherics are enough to offset the land proximity and shear from Saturday to early Sunday morning. I am not a Promet, these are just my personal thoughts.

I 100% agree with your thinking and believe once the outer-eye takes over and contracts = it'll be a cat5 once again.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I feel bad for the people who returned their hurricane items yesterday.

You gotta be a special kinda of stupid to do that.

[Aric Dunn]

ok night night its going to be a long next few days.. rest up everyone !

[Hurricane Andrew]

Most models show no dry air problems until at least H72...by which case SFL has been hit very, very hard. OHC values are in the 100-150 range, SSTs 30-32. (CIMSS) Unless shear keeps it down, I really doubt Cuba will.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Any idea what kind of impact irma may have on marion county/city of dunnellon?

[PaulR]

I feel bad for the people who returned their hurricane items yesterday.

Natural selection in 4, 3, 2, 1...

[ApproximateKnowledge]

For those of you making your own amateur forecasts, I've quickly hacked together an initial version of a program I've been working on for a bit. It is a very, very alpha version but I figured it might be good to get something out now. For right now, it'll only load Irma's track from the NHC, which you can then edit to create your own. You can get it here, if you want: https://sites.google.com/view/approxima ... pproxicane (no charge or ads or anything).

[romeoblade]

For those of you making your own amateur forecasts, I've quickly hacked together an initial version of a program I've been working on for a bit. It is a very, very alpha version but I figured it might be good to get something out now. For right now, it'll only load Irma's track from the NHC, which you can then edit to create your own. You can get it here, if you want: https://sites.google.com/view/approxima ... pproxicane (no charge or ads or anything).

Nice, what language did you use? Any chance to opensource?

[ApproximateKnowledge]

Nice, what language did you use? Any chance to opensource?

It runs on Unity, which has proprietary inner workings, so I don't think so.

[SouthFloridawx]

For those of you making your own amateur forecasts, I've quickly hacked together an initial version of a program I've been working on for a bit. It is a very, very alpha version but I figured it might be good to get something out now. For right now, it'll only load Irma's track from the NHC, which you can then edit to create your own. You can get it here, if you want: https://sites.google.com/view/approxima ... pproxicane (no charge or ads or anything).

Dude, that is amazing. Thank you

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

[PandaCitrus]

Ocala/Gainesville area will probably have sustained 60-70mph winds with hurricane force gusts if the Euro western track prevails. The eyewall would go right over this area.

The eastern GFS track would be better for north central florida. Maybe 40-50mph winds with higher gusts

[mrbagyo]

Eyewall replacement is finishing. Irma is going to have the mother of all eyewalls tomorrow morning. It looks 50 or 60 miles wide in the microwave imagery. At that rate, it won't matter where she hits, East, West, Center. Everybody is going to get the Cat 4 winds.

 https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/906012452835299329




 https://twitter.com/JonathanBelles/status/906015467336114179

Holy... that's one big mega eye. Once the inner eyewall has full collapsed, clearing the eye would be almost seamless given how robust its outflow pattern.

[bahamaswx]

Add little inagua to the list of islands that the eye passed directly over. This one, thankfully, uninhabitated.

[NFLnut]

Off topic: Does anyone here use GRLevel2 or 3? I tried the trial and it has now expired. I didn't really get to use it for severe weather at all so my experience is limited. Which one is better for watching this storm and trying to keep tabs on potential tornadoes? I get confused: is Level2 more advanced than Level3? Does anyone use something else that is better? I guess I would probably buy the one that is $79 because I won't need it often, but I want to make the best and most cost effective choice. This is mostly just as a hobby and for curiosity. Not making crucial decisions (except being informed of potential tornadoes).

[TheDreamTraveler]

So do we know how powerful Irma might be at landfall? Besides the NHC's forecast of it approaching as a major hurricane...I know some meteorologists and people on this board have noted that the area right before Florida has almost nothing to prevent Irma from weakening but instead strengthen. The only thing potentially weakening it is interaction from the mountains on Cuba and slight land interaction.

Also how long has it been since the US has been impacted by a storm of this strength? I can only think of Harvey when it was a cat 4 and then Charley in 2004. I don't think this area of Florida has been hit by a storm this strong since Andrew in 1992. Pretty crazy to think about it.

[northjaxpro]

If my memory serves me right, if Irma maintains her Category 5 status when she makes landfall on the continental United States, she would be the strongest hurricane to impact since Andrew . Andrew was re-assessed as a cat 5 tropical cyclone upon landfall post-analysis. So if I'm not on the mark then I stand to be corrected. I am extremely tired and it is 3 a.m. in the morning as I post this lol.. I am half asleep.

However, I believe Andrew in 1992 in Homestead is the last Category 5 tropical cyclone to impact the continental United States

[JarrodB]

Edit.....my bad i thought you wrote only cat 5 to hit....too tired to sleep

However, I believe Andrew in 1992 in Homestead is the last Category 5 tropical cyclone to impact the continental United States

Camile in 1969.

I suppose the Labor Day storm of 1935 does not count...though it did make landfall in west Fl after destroying the keys.

I've been at the helm all day, moored around 9pm in St Auggie, quickly fell asleep, now i cant go back asleep.

[PaulR]

Any word on the Inagua Islands (Bahamas)?

Wikipedia entry on them:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inagua

Morton Salt has a large facility there, there are a couple sea turtle preserves, and Great Inagua Island has a large avian sanctuary (over 80,000 flamingoes, for starters, probably less now.)

Hopefully the people (only about 900) are ok. (Corrected pop. number.)