ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

I'm not liking these west trends on the west coast north of tampa. Going into full prep mode today and tomorrow. Pulling the boat out, getting sandbags, removing lawn furniture, stocking up, helping my elderly neighbor with shutters. We fortunately have the accordian metal shutters that are easy to close. Not anticipating the storm to ride up the west coast. If that happens we have a plan B to evacuate to a well built home above the surge zone locally. I'm praying for all you south Florida posters like jlaud, sanibel, Sflcane, and others as you guys will take the brunt of this cane. I fear the state and we Floridians will never be the same after this monster ravages us but I'm confident we'll all help each other during the storm and its aftermath like in Tx. We are americans first and foremost and we look out for each other in times like these.

[Extratropical94]

USAF 12 - descending
URNT15 KNHC 081053
AF304 2111A IRMA HDOB 12 20170908
104400 1909N 07239W 3933 07706 0402 -159 -302 222029 031 /// /// 03
104430 1911N 07241W 3929 07713 0403 -162 -295 221026 027 /// /// 03
104500 1913N 07242W 3929 07715 0403 -151 -284 219025 026 /// /// 03
104530 1916N 07243W 3926 07719 0404 -145 -272 220023 024 /// /// 03
104600 1918N 07244W 3931 07707 0402 -141 -262 228025 026 /// /// 03
104630 1920N 07246W 3925 07719 0401 -143 -256 232027 028 /// /// 03
104700 1922N 07247W 3930 07708 0400 -142 -252 231026 027 /// /// 03
104730 1925N 07248W 3931 07706 0399 -140 -247 231025 026 /// /// 03
104800 1927N 07250W 3929 07709 0399 -139 -245 231026 026 /// /// 03
104830 1929N 07251W 3927 07711 0398 -140 -245 225026 026 /// /// 03
104900 1931N 07252W 3930 07707 0398 -139 -246 218026 026 /// /// 03
104930 1934N 07253W 3928 07711 0400 -141 -247 221025 026 /// /// 03
105000 1936N 07255W 3968 07640 0400 -143 -249 214026 028 /// /// 03
105030 1938N 07256W 4119 07362 0385 -131 -252 215029 030 /// /// 03
105100 1941N 07257W 4278 07072 0367 -118 -252 221031 031 /// /// 03
105130 1943N 07259W 4451 06767 0346 -095 -247 228033 034 /// /// 03
105200 1945N 07300W 4611 06490 0326 -086 -236 228034 034 /// /// 03
105230 1948N 07300W 4759 06246 0310 -071 -220 219036 037 /// /// 03
105300 1950N 07259W 4888 06035 0295 -062 -199 221037 038 /// /// 03
105330 1952N 07258W 5054 05771 0276 -046 -176 222038 039 /// /// 03

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 21
URNT15 KWBC 081054
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 21 20170908
104500 2252N 07500W 7531 02443 9983 +132 +120 063080 081 /// /// 03
104530 2251N 07459W 7525 02452 9982 +131 +127 065082 082 /// /// 03
104600 2249N 07459W 7519 02453 9975 +133 +126 067083 084 /// /// 03
104630 2247N 07458W 7528 02438 9969 +134 +125 067088 092 /// /// 03
104700 2246N 07457W 7512 02451 9963 +133 +127 068092 093 /// /// 03
104730 2244N 07456W 7514 02442 9956 +134 +123 067092 092 /// /// 03
104800 2242N 07455W 7528 02423 9949 +140 +116 067093 094 /// /// 03
104830 2240N 07454W 7519 02428 9945 +137 +123 067093 093 /// /// 03
104900 2239N 07453W 7498 02444 9934 +136 +133 069095 095 /// /// 03
104930 2237N 07453W 7509 02429 9927 +141 +124 069092 094 050 006 03
105000 2235N 07452W 7518 02409 9925 +137 +129 068095 097 051 009 00
105030 2234N 07451W 7515 02410 9916 +138 +134 065098 101 053 010 00
105100 2232N 07450W 7522 02395 9910 +137 +122 064097 098 056 011 00
105130 2230N 07449W 7519 02390 9904 +135 +126 067095 097 061 010 00
105200 2229N 07448W 7515 02389 9893 +137 +136 066097 097 061 009 00
105230 2227N 07448W 7510 02393 9886 +141 +137 065096 096 063 009 00
105300 2225N 07447W 7510 02384 9878 +140 +140 063099 100 062 012 00
105330 2223N 07446W 7517 02365 9865 +141 //// 065098 098 063 013 01
105400 2222N 07445W 7510 02365 9851 +143 //// 064089 090 067 013 01
105430 2220N 07444W 7506 02361 9839 +150 +142 065095 098 069 009 00

[Extratropical94]

USAF 13
URNT15 KNHC 081103
AF304 2111A IRMA HDOB 13 20170908
105400 1955N 07257W 5195 05548 0257 -034 -154 223039 042 /// /// 03
105430 1957N 07255W 5331 05342 0242 -032 -137 219040 040 /// /// 03
105500 1959N 07254W 5482 05118 0228 -014 -122 225041 043 /// /// 03
105530 2001N 07253W 5633 04894 0053 -004 -108 223044 045 /// /// 03
105600 2004N 07252W 5757 04712 0070 -006 -095 213055 057 /// /// 03
105630 2006N 07251W 5877 04542 0076 -003 -084 217056 059 /// /// 03
105700 2008N 07250W 6017 04351 0086 +002 -074 214053 059 /// /// 03
105730 2010N 07248W 6144 04179 0071 +020 -069 212052 054 /// /// 03
105800 2012N 07246W 6321 03950 0058 +040 -062 205051 052 /// /// 03
105830 2015N 07245W 6505 03712 0054 +058 -053 205050 050 /// /// 03
105900 2017N 07244W 6699 03469 0070 +059 -044 205051 052 /// /// 03
105930 2019N 07243W 6877 03250 0061 +077 -034 207051 052 /// /// 03
110000 2021N 07241W 6961 03146 0064 +075 -024 207052 053 /// /// 03
110030 2023N 07240W 6969 03132 0057 +079 -016 208054 054 /// /// 03
110100 2025N 07239W 6968 03132 0046 +085 -005 206056 058 /// /// 03
110130 2028N 07238W 6969 03130 0041 +087 +001 206056 058 /// /// 03
110200 2030N 07237W 6970 03126 0044 +083 -001 207057 059 /// /// 03
110230 2032N 07237W 6976 03115 0043 +083 +002 209056 059 /// /// 03
110300 2034N 07238W 6964 03130 0049 +075 +009 207055 056 038 004 03
110330 2035N 07239W 6967 03125 0039 +082 +011 206055 056 040 004 00

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 22
URNT15 KWBC 081104
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 22 20170908
105500 2218N 07443W 7503 02352 9828 +149 +145 064097 099 070 007 00
105530 2217N 07442W 7500 02343 9812 +153 +135 065099 102 070 006 00
105600 2215N 07442W 7505 02328 9803 +149 +137 065104 105 074 007 00
105630 2213N 07441W 7496 02326 9789 +149 +138 063109 110 076 007 00
105700 2211N 07440W 7506 02299 9776 +144 +135 061114 116 080 009 00
105730 2210N 07439W 7544 02234 9754 +146 +145 061119 121 083 015 00
105800 2208N 07438W 7493 02276 9732 +144 //// 064123 126 084 013 01
105830 2206N 07437W 7507 02235 9705 +144 +142 063127 128 085 013 00
105900 2205N 07437W 7482 02235 9672 +145 //// 062133 135 092 031 01
105930 2203N 07436W 7496 02188 9637 +148 +146 062135 136 101 039 00
110000 2201N 07435W 7501 02143 9594 +153 //// 065133 135 105 027 01
110030 2200N 07434W 7470 02150 9553 +163 //// 069118 122 108 008 01
110100 2158N 07433W 7490 02106 9525 +166 //// 065110 112 106 005 01
110130 2156N 07433W 7525 02040 9493 +170 //// 062110 112 107 002 05
110200 2154N 07433W 7514 02018 9449 +182 +168 055105 106 095 001 03
110230 2151N 07433W 7495 02018 9419 +192 +155 047103 103 096 004 03
110300 2149N 07434W 7477 02025 9406 +191 +159 037095 099 084 000 00
110330 2146N 07435W 7545 01932 9390 +193 +161 027088 089 085 000 03
110400 2144N 07433W 7510 01940 9354 +195 +165 020087 088 071 003 03
110430 2143N 07431W 7495 01921 9318 +194 +180 014069 075 069 003 03

[PandaCitrus]

Cuban radar shoes the inner eyeball has collapsed. We now have a brand new 45 mile wide eye.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[dizzyfish]

Well, this isn't what I wanted to see at all this morning. Most concerned and we will kick it into high gear today and get shuttered. We will shelter in place - and pray. We are not in an evac zone. I pray for everyone here in my home state of Florida. All the storms I have been through in my life and this one truly scares me.

If they tell you to evac PLEASE GO.

My thoughts are with all enduring this monster!

Dot

[NDG]

First morning visible shot of Irma, she keeps expanding.

[Michele B]

Wow, the European keeps trending westward and the latest 06z GFS also shifted westward. If there is any good news this morning is that Miami may not get hit directly the inner side of the eyewall (direct hit) or not get hit by the eyewall at all if the latest Euro model is correct and it keeps trending westward. But this means that SW FL may get worst conditions than many previously thought.
Irma may have come down to a Cat 4 four this morning but she is expanding the possibility still exists that she may strengthen some over the FL straits.
Stay tunned, model watching continues, wow!

RUN, IRMA, RUN!!

RUN AWAY FROM MIAMI!!! THAT'S WHERE CANTORE IS!!!!

Sheeesh, Thanks, Jim.

[Extratropical94]

USAF 14
URNT15 KNHC 081113
AF304 2111A IRMA HDOB 14 20170908
110400 2036N 07240W 6964 03126 0039 +081 +014 201056 058 040 003 00
110430 2038N 07242W 6969 03120 0026 +090 +015 201059 060 043 002 00
110500 2039N 07244W 6969 03118 0021 +092 +017 201060 061 046 002 00
110530 2040N 07245W 6968 03117 0024 +089 +019 203061 061 046 003 00
110600 2041N 07247W 6967 03118 0026 +085 +020 201063 064 046 003 00
110630 2042N 07248W 6967 03117 0028 +082 +020 201065 067 048 003 00
110700 2043N 07250W 6970 03112 0031 +080 +020 202066 068 049 004 00
110730 2044N 07252W 6964 03117 0034 +075 +019 198064 067 050 009 00
110800 2045N 07253W 6961 03121 0045 +066 +017 200069 072 049 010 00
110830 2046N 07255W 6969 03103 0027 +072 +014 205061 075 042 036 00
110900 2048N 07256W 6939 03146 0036 +069 +012 206068 073 054 025 03
110930 2049N 07258W 6968 03108 0024 +080 +009 203064 068 054 008 00
111000 2050N 07300W 6965 03111 0021 +081 +006 200060 062 048 003 00
111030 2051N 07301W 6969 03106 0025 +078 +005 198059 060 051 004 00
111100 2052N 07303W 6967 03107 0022 +080 +005 199061 063 051 004 00
111130 2053N 07304W 6967 03103 0018 +080 +006 201063 066 051 005 00
111200 2054N 07306W 6970 03098 0027 +070 +006 202065 067 053 008 00
111230 2055N 07308W 6969 03097 0020 +074 +005 204061 065 053 007 00
111300 2056N 07309W 6968 03096 0014 +075 +005 203063 064 053 011 00
111330 2057N 07311W 6965 03096 0012 +075 +004 201066 066 064 009 03

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 23
URNT15 KWBC 081114
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 23 20170908
110500 2143N 07429W 7508 01885 9289 +202 +184 018044 050 051 003 00
110530 2142N 07427W 7510 01871 9278 +199 +190 021030 035 040 003 03
110600 2142N 07425W 7545 01822 9272 +198 +191 043012 017 025 001 03
110630 2140N 07423W 7495 01884 9273 +197 +188 145005 007 020 001 03
110700 2138N 07423W 7509 01871 9279 +197 +190 250012 016 015 001 00
110730 2136N 07422W 7529 01860 9286 +200 +193 251026 030 029 002 00
110800 2134N 07421W 7532 01868 9305 +199 +188 257043 048 039 003 00
110830 2132N 07420W 7515 01914 9332 +194 +192 255057 062 051 005 00
110900 2131N 07419W 7527 01933 9362 +195 +191 251068 071 062 009 00
110930 2129N 07418W 7526 01971 9410 +185 +184 249082 085 070 003 00
111000 2127N 07417W 7527 02006 9450 +181 +170 245086 087 078 003 00
111030 2125N 07416W 7504 02063 9490 +174 +165 242091 093 100 005 00
111100 2124N 07416W 7531 02057 9522 +170 //// 250088 093 104 009 01
111130 2122N 07415W 7488 02146 9569 +151 //// 244121 135 109 018 01
111200 2120N 07414W 7374 02307 9607 +147 //// 244120 126 109 048 05
111230 2118N 07413W 7502 02190 9647 +148 //// 249116 117 098 051 01
111300 2117N 07412W 7484 02246 9688 +144 //// 247115 118 092 031 01
111330 2115N 07412W 7498 02261 9713 +153 //// 246103 105 085 012 01
111400 2113N 07411W 7517 02265 9748 +150 +138 242098 099 079 009 00
111430 2112N 07410W 7534 02262 9776 +144 +136 238091 093 076 007 00

[Michele B]

Cuban radar shoes the inner eyeball has collapsed. We now have a brand new 45 mile wide eye.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

I wondered about that, looking at the recon pic above your post.

[ObsessedMiami]

Wow, the European keeps trending westward and the latest 06z GFS also shifted westward. If there is any good news this morning is that Miami may not get hit directly the inner side of the eyewall (direct hit) or not get hit by the eyewall at all if the latest Euro model is correct and it keeps trending westward. But this means that SW FL may get worst conditions than many previously thought.
Irma may have come down to a Cat 4 four this morning but she is expanding the possibility still exists that she may strengthen some over the FL straits.
Stay tunned, model watching continues, wow!

RUN, IRMA, RUN!!

RUN AWAY FROM MIAMI!!! THAT'S WHERE CANTORE IS!!!!

Sheeesh, Thanks, Jim.

Should invite Jim to my house so the eye stays far away. Buckle up everyone on the peninsula.

[Extratropical94]

USAF 15
URNT15 KNHC 081123
AF304 2111A IRMA HDOB 15 20170908
111400 2059N 07312W 6968 03089 0014 +072 +004 201070 070 /// /// 03
111430 2100N 07314W 6970 03083 0011 +070 +003 200069 070 /// /// 03
111500 2101N 07315W 6971 03079 0012 +067 +002 197070 074 /// /// 03
111530 2102N 07317W 6962 03085 0004 +070 -000 195070 074 /// /// 03
111600 2103N 07319W 6970 03073 0003 +068 -001 192068 069 /// /// 03
111630 2104N 07320W 6968 03070 9997 +070 -002 196067 070 /// /// 03
111700 2105N 07322W 6970 03067 9992 +071 -002 199064 070 /// /// 03
111730 2106N 07324W 6967 03066 9985 +072 -002 196065 066 /// /// 03
111800 2108N 07325W 6968 03061 9979 +072 -001 196067 069 /// /// 03
111830 2109N 07327W 6962 03063 9971 +075 -000 197066 067 /// /// 03
111900 2110N 07329W 6976 03041 9969 +073 +001 194069 070 /// /// 03
111930 2111N 07330W 6967 03047 9963 +073 +001 193070 071 /// /// 03
112000 2112N 07332W 6964 03047 9958 +071 +002 197069 071 060 015 03
112030 2113N 07334W 6964 03040 9954 +070 +002 198062 069 064 011 00
112100 2114N 07335W 6962 03035 9940 +077 +002 201066 068 069 011 00
112130 2116N 07337W 6962 03029 9933 +076 +003 200068 070 070 011 03
112200 2117N 07338W 6970 03015 9903 +094 +003 201069 070 069 003 00
112230 2118N 07340W 6963 03017 9894 +098 +005 201072 073 069 003 00
112300 2119N 07341W 6963 03010 9886 +098 +010 203076 077 071 001 00
112330 2120N 07343W 6972 02990 9886 +088 +015 203081 082 069 003 00

[NDG]

Latest ewrp of Irma has taken a toll on her, eye does not have the best presentation on IR Satellite this morning.
She has been tracking a little north of due west this morning and has not slowed down much yet, if it keeps it up it may make landfall in north central coast of Cuba at least temporarily before turning north towards FL.

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 24
URNT15 KWBC 081124
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 24 20170908
111500 2110N 07409W 7518 02303 9794 +147 +128 238085 086 071 006 00
111530 2108N 07408W 7516 02319 9807 +149 +138 238083 084 067 007 00
111600 2107N 07407W 7533 02308 9817 +152 +132 236081 081 067 005 00
111630 2105N 07407W 7515 02343 9831 +151 +127 235078 079 064 005 00
111700 2103N 07406W 7513 02357 9843 +149 +127 232073 073 063 003 00
111730 2102N 07405W 7527 02350 9853 +151 +127 229071 072 063 003 00
111800 2100N 07404W 7530 02354 9867 +145 +136 231069 069 062 003 00
111830 2058N 07403W 7519 02375 9881 +139 +133 232066 067 060 003 00
111900 2057N 07402W 7513 02390 9890 +136 //// 232065 065 059 004 01
111930 2055N 07402W 7530 02374 9898 +137 //// 233062 064 055 004 01
112000 2053N 07401W 7503 02405 9900 +137 //// 242062 065 051 020 01
112030 2051N 07400W 7527 02387 9900 +141 //// 250063 066 053 011 01
112100 2050N 07359W 7501 02418 9906 +141 +136 251064 065 052 010 00
112130 2048N 07358W 7514 02415 9914 +142 +137 251063 064 054 007 00
112200 2046N 07357W 7495 02444 9923 +138 +137 243065 068 054 014 00
112230 2044N 07356W 7510 02433 9933 +137 //// 238069 071 050 018 01
112300 2042N 07355W 7510 02438 9938 +137 //// 238067 071 048 014 01
112330 2041N 07354W 7496 02461 9953 +129 //// 232068 069 047 011 01
112400 2039N 07354W 7512 02445 9957 +132 //// 225059 060 045 010 01
112430 2037N 07353W 7510 02454 9959 +137 +129 226058 058 047 010 00

[flamingosun]

geeze...
Just saw on TV that Irma has some 89 degree water just ahead! Knew those waters were warm, but that's down right HOT.

[wxman57]

This trend is definitely not good for us on the South west coast. Worried about the surge coming up the river here in Fort Myers. It didn't rise here for Charlie or Wilma, but this might be different.

If Irma tracks up the central FL Peninsula then you would see tides below normal there with a strong northerly wind. Very good GFS/EC agreement now. Eyewall may miss Miami/Palm Beach to the west and Ft. Myers to the east.

[ronjon]

This trend is definitely not good for us on the South west coast. Worried about the surge coming up the river here in Fort Myers. It didn't rise here for Charlie or Wilma, but this might be different.

If Irma tracks up the central FL Peninsula then you would see tides below normal there with a strong northerly wind. Very good GFS/EC agreement now. Eyewall may miss Miami/Palm Beach to the west and Ft. Myers to the east.

Yes wxman IF it can thread the needle with the eyewall but one wobble west or east and well we all know what that means.

[M3gaMatch]

Why does the northern inner-eyewall continue to try to re-emerge?