jlauderdal wrote:yes, then it becomes wobble watching...hopefully we can get some land interaction with cuba and knock it down a categoryNDG wrote:jlauderdal wrote:bastardi went west to the upper keys, lets see how the next gfs does and of course euro run ensembles...even if stays west on the models i dont trust that it cant come back east, wobbles and these can do strange things as they approach landflall..another thing is cuba interaction...lots of unknowns....i realize to some people we are splitting hairs but in SE florida literally every mile makes a difference for us as to whether we lose roof tiles or lose roofs
I think today's 12z Euro run will be it, close to the final landfall in southern FL, it has been doing really well in its 48 hr forecast. But it will be interesting if it ends up where it was showing landfall across SW FL a few days ago in its medium to long range forecast.
Even if she makes landfall that northern side of central Cuba is not Mountainous at all and it will be for only a few hours, then it will have 14-16 hrs over the FL Straights before making landfall in S FL to strengthen more over upper 80s SSTs and light shear, also its outflow will be tapping into the UL trough over the NE US to help it re-intensify.