ATL: IRMA - Models

[jhpigott]

:uarrow: And to think that just 24 hrs ago people on the west coast of FL were thinking that they had dodge a bullet. Long live the King!

Still have approx 48 hours before landfall. Wouldn't be shocked if we wind shield wipe back to the E a little. 24 hours out with Matthew lots of models scraped coast at WPB and he ended up over Grand Bahama.

[Frank P]

Just have to hope the GFS intensity is over cooked

I mean if Euro/UKMET are correct and this thing goes over Cuba I'm fairly certain there's not much hope for this thing getting anywhere near as strong as the GFS says. Even the GFS has it BARELY offshore in Cuba at this point.

Core stays off Cuba, waters temps 89 deg, no wind shear, no dry air to speak of, and it's past intensity records... yeah I think it can intensify as it runs through the Fl Straits... to me more likely than not... I sure hope not though and love to be wrong on this... will it see GFS pressures probably unlikely but still there is that uncertainty for intensity..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just have to hope the GFS intensity is over cooked

I mean if Euro/UKMET are correct and this thing goes over Cuba I'm fairly certain there's not much hope for this thing getting anywhere near as strong as the GFS says. Even the GFS has it BARELY offshore in Cuba at this point.

Core stays off Cuba, waters temps 89 deg, no wind shear, no dry air to speak of, and it's past intensity records... yeah I think it can intensify as it runs through the Fl Straits... to me more likely than not... I sure hope not though and love to be wrong on this... will it see GFS pressures probably unlikely but still there is that uncertainty for intensity..

GFS really ramps her up in straights below FL and as makes landfall. Rain rates were insane on the eastern side.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: And to think that just 24 hrs ago people on the west coast of FL were thinking that they had dodge a bullet. Long live the King!

People on the east coaat better not feel much better until it passes by...a few wobbles and we get it head on

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: And to think that just 24 hrs ago people on the west coast of FL were thinking that they had dodge a bullet. Long live the King!

People on the east coaat better not feel much better until it passes by...a few wobbles and we get it head on

I feel a little better.

[adam0983]

The models could easily come back to the east coast of Florida. For people to say that they are off the hook because it may hit the west coast of Florida is irresponsible. Hurricane Charley was supposed to hit Tampa and hit Port Charlotte instead.

[NDG]

:uarrow: And to think that just 24 hrs ago people on the west coast of FL were thinking that they had dodge a bullet. Long live the King!

People on the east coaat better not feel much better until it passes by...a few wobbles and we get it head on

Not saying that east coast of FL are out of the woods, both coasts will feel the fury of Irma if current track continues, if it keeps trending west then the west coast of FL will experience the strongest winds versus the east coast. IMO.

[NDG]

The models could easily come back to the east coast of Florida. For people to say that they are off the hook because it may hit the west coast of Florida is irresponsible. Hurricane Charley was supposed to hit Tampa and hit Port Charlotte instead.

This is a much bigger storm than Charley, even if it tracks a little closer to west coast like the Euro is showing the east coast of FL will still feel Cat 2-3 conditions, so I am by no way saying the east coast is off the hook.

[SouthDadeFish]

As long as you are in the cone you should be ready for the worst. That includes all of South Florida. Remember a couple of days ago when people were thinking the models were going out to sea? Then they came back west. They could just as easily tick back east right over the east coast metro areas. Or they could also continue to tick farther west and put some of the larger west coast metro areas at greater risk. We just don't know where the eyewall will cross FL yet. Keep in mind Irma will likely have a large eye at the time of landfall, so hurricane-force winds will extend well away from the center of the storm.

[NDG]

Wind gusts forecast by last night's Euro, even though it shifted westward with the strongest winds forecasted over the middle Keys and west of Miami all of SE FL will get wind gusts over 100 mph, with western Miami getting 120 mph wind gusts. As it tracks north over north central & north FL it starts expanding with the strongest winds over the coastal areas with over 110 mph wind gusts. Very interesting transformation & events as it gets to this area for sure.

i.imgur.com/CThAlfG.gif
https://i.imgur.com/cXe2J3A.gif

Where do you get those gust maps from?

NWS has a very wind forecast map.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Decent shift west for the 12Z:

Intensity models are fascinating...most have this as a strong 3 to almost a "weak" 5 at H48, and many still have a hurricane at H72...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[shawn6304]

The models could easily come back to the east coast of Florida. For people to say that they are off the hook because it may hit the west coast of Florida is irresponsible. Hurricane Charley was supposed to hit Tampa and hit Port Charlotte instead.

This is a much bigger storm than Charley, even if it tracks a little closer to west coast like the Euro is showing the east coast of FL will still feel Cat 2-3 conditions, so I am by no way saying the east coast is off the hook.

Ya i am a bit confused by the east coast is better off talk, i show the official track going right through fortymile Bend which is 45 miles west of downtown Miami, if you cut the eye in radius in half that puts Miami 25 mils from the eye on the north east side.

Seems pretty bad scenario to me.

[ronjon]

:uarrow: And to think that just 24 hrs ago people on the west coast of FL were thinking that they had dodge a bullet. Long live the King!

People on the east coaat better not feel much better until it passes by...a few wobbles and we get it head on

Not saying that east coast of FL are out of the woods, both coasts will feel the fury of Irma if current track continues, if it keeps trending west then the west coast of FL will experience the strongest winds versus the east coast. IMO.

NDG looks like you might get hammered with the eastern eyewall in orlando...although hopefully she'll be much weaker by then taking 12-18 hours to get to you.

[CFLHurricane]

The models could easily come back to the east coast of Florida. For people to say that they are off the hook because it may hit the west coast of Florida is irresponsible. Hurricane Charley was supposed to hit Tampa and hit Port Charlotte instead.

This is a much bigger storm than Charley, even if it tracks a little closer to west coast like the Euro is showing the east coast of FL will still feel Cat 2-3 conditions, so I am by no way saying the east coast is off the hook.

Ya i am a bit confused by the east coast is better off talk, i show the official track going right through fortymile Bend which is 45 miles west of downtown Miami, if you cut the eye in radius in half that puts Miami 25 mils from the eye on the north east side.

Seems pretty bad scenario to me.

Pretty bad is much better than cat 4/5 bad. Yes there could be a wiggle but seeing western consensus is cathartic in a very bittersweet way for east coasters.

[jdjaguar]

People on the east coaat better not feel much better until it passes by...a few wobbles and we get it head on

Not saying that east coast of FL are out of the woods, both coasts will feel the fury of Irma if current track continues, if it keeps trending west then the west coast of FL will experience the strongest winds versus the east coast. IMO.

NDG looks like you might get hammered with the eastern eyewall in orlando...although hopefully she'll be much weaker by then taking 12-18 hours to get to you.

NHC projecting CAT 2 in Orlando per the 5 am discussion

[PandaCitrus]

The larger eyewall is starting to look very strong and dominant on Cuban radar.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[Jevo]

I think the sheer size of the storm is escaping most people (not on this board) right now.. even with a storm landfalling on the extreme SW coast of FL densely populated areas on SE FL will experience Cat 1/2 hurricane force winds for hours. Windfield animation from the 06z GFS

[PTPatrick]

It's getting to be wobble watch for with respect to Cuba and whether ukmet might verify....euro is really technically offshore, but could be called a landfall on a few Cuban islands... If you look at current satellite animation, its gained around half a degree of latitude in 6 hrs and 2 degree longitude. (.25 lat per long) To stay off Cuba it need only Gain .2 per 1 longitude. So it current trajectory holds, it will stay just offshore. A wobble could make all the difference.

If it reaches 22.5 by 77 It should probably stay more offshore.

[tallywx]

This is a much bigger storm than Charley, even if it tracks a little closer to west coast like the Euro is showing the east coast of FL will still feel Cat 2-3 conditions, so I am by no way saying the east coast is off the hook.

Ya i am a bit confused by the east coast is better off talk, i show the official track going right through fortymile Bend which is 45 miles west of downtown Miami, if you cut the eye in radius in half that puts Miami 25 mils from the eye on the north east side.

Seems pretty bad scenario to me.

Pretty bad is much better than cat 4/5 bad. Yes there could be a wiggle but seeing western consensus is cathartic in a very bittersweet way for east coasters.

25 miles NE of center of eye in strongest quad of storm could be cat 4/5 bad. See, e.g., McClellanville and Francis Marion Forest in Hugo 1989. Much worse than Mt. Pleasant which the eye bissected.

[ObsessedMiami]

I have found Ventusky.com a very odd choice for wind prediction. Last night I checked and it had the eye offshore Miami but only 45mph gusts in west Kendall. Impossible It was using the ICON model. GFS is more realistic