ATL: IRMA - Models

[NDG]

People on the east coaat better not feel much better until it passes by...a few wobbles and we get it head on

Not saying that east coast of FL are out of the woods, both coasts will feel the fury of Irma if current track continues, if it keeps trending west then the west coast of FL will experience the strongest winds versus the east coast. IMO.

NDG looks like you might get hammered with the eastern eyewall in orlando...although hopefully she'll be much weaker by then taking 12-18 hours to get to you.

Yeah, what I hope is that by the time it gets here is that its coc expands enough so that the strongest winds get closer to the coast (hate to wish that on other people) but either way I am expecting 100-110 mph winds here in my area just like the NWS is forecasting. Good thing that after I rebuilt our house 8 years ago after a fire the roof was brought up to current codes, they reinforced the heck out of it, the windows were also brought up to current codes. The outside walls are concrete blocks.

[adam0983]

Is there anything that will make the models shift back to the east coast of Florida.

[Jevo]

I have found Ventusky.com a very odd choice for wind prediction. Last night I checked and it had the eye offshore Miami but only 45mph gusts in west Kendall. Impossible It was using the ICON model. GFS is more realistic

Make sure to update your parameters by default it wants to use NAM at 1000mb for some reason. I used it more for Winfield purposes then intensity

[NDG]

Is there anything that will make the models shift back to the east coast of Florida.

Unfortunately at this short range the models are very good, so it will be impossible for Irma at this stage to track east of FL.

[chris46n]

Hopefully will go more west.

[tgenius]

If the eye is 45 miles wide, the kill shot for miami ft. Lauderdale and palm beach is for the center of the eye to come ashore in far southwest miami Dade almost in the center of the tip of florida. This would put all of metro south Florida in the northeast eyewall. No break. Just hours of relentless cat 4 winds. It will be extremely close.

With all due respect using the word "kill shot" is a really poor choice of words.

[Jevo]

Is there anything that will make the models shift back to the east coast of Florida.

Unfortunately at this short range the models are very good, so it will be impossible for Irma at this stage to track east of FL.

Agreed!. I think we are at the range (48 hours where we will stop seeing drastic shifts).. Based on the current consensus I think an initial landfall in Marathon Key then secondary between Everglades City and 20 miles West of Homestead

But does it matter at this point with this Leviathan bearing down

[TheStormExpert]

Is there anything that will make the models shift back to the east coast of Florida.

Unfortunately at this short range the models are very good, so it will be impossible for Irma at this stage to track east of FL.

Agreed!. I think we are at the range (48 hours where we will stop seeing drastic shifts).. Based on the current consensus I think an initial landfall in Marathon Key then secondary between Everglades City and 20 miles West of Homestead

But does it matter at this point with this Leviathan bearing down

Not to mention Irma could grow even more if the models are correct.

[adam0983]

Maybe a east shift in the gfs we shall see.

[skufful]

Maybe a east shift in the gfs we shall see.

Is it running now and showing a shift?

[Steve]

Maybe a east shift in the gfs we shall see.

Is it running now and showing a shift?

No. It doesn't run until 10:30ish (11:30 your time if you're in EDT). I think that was just user speculation.

[Steve]

Also, the NAM (!) 12km 12Z is now in line with the ECMWF for a run through the keys. It then goes through the center of the state as it heads toward SE GA. Looks like coastal impacts into South Carolina with this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=48

[pgoss11]

Also, the NAM (!) 12km 12Z is now in line with the ECMWF for a run through the keys. It then goes through the center of the state as it heads toward SE GA. Looks like coastal impacts into South Carolina with this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=48

I thought the NAM was a bad tropical model?

[Steve]

Also, the NAM (!) 12km 12Z is now in line with the ECMWF for a run through the keys. It then goes through the center of the state as it heads toward SE GA. Looks like coastal impacts into South Carolina with this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=48

I thought the NAM was a bad tropical model?

It is. But it's the only model that runs this early and is taken into consideration for steering and other upper issues by the NWS and NHC. It's been east of Florida the last several runs, but it's finally getting its **** together in regards to Irma (within 48 hours, so that tells you it's not equipped for tropical cyclone tracks).

[pgoss11]

Also, the NAM (!) 12km 12Z is now in line with the ECMWF for a run through the keys. It then goes through the center of the state as it heads toward SE GA. Looks like coastal impacts into South Carolina with this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=48

I thought the NAM was a bad tropical model?

It is. But it's the only model that runs this early and is taken into consideration for steering and other upper issues by the NWS and NHC. It's been east of Florida the last several runs, but it's finally getting its **** together in regards to Irma (within 48 hours, so that tells you it's not equipped for tropical cyclone tracks).

So not necessarily good for tracking but good for synoptic and steering patterns?

[jasons2k]

Just last night, the NAM was a far east outlier to Annapolis MD, then it flipped to a west outlier. No, it cannot be trusted.

[Steve]

I thought the NAM was a bad tropical model?

It is. But it's the only model that runs this early and is taken into consideration for steering and other upper issues by the NWS and NHC. It's been east of Florida the last several runs, but it's finally getting its **** together in regards to Irma (within 48 hours, so that tells you it's not equipped for tropical cyclone tracks).

So not necessarily good for tracking but good for synoptic and steering patterns?

Yeah. It's decent for smaller scale interactions on the continent. Hurricanes have to be north of 25N for any reasonable solutions to come out of it, but I would say that it was ahead of the game in pegging Harvey becoming super strong with a quality structure but screwed up its track most of the runs. GFS should be starting any minute now, and we'll see if it remains mostly with the consensus or wants to do its own thing. I hate the GFS this year, but again, we're around 40 hours until landfall so it's not going to be that bad. Pay particular attention to whether it hooks west and intensifies moving toward the FL Straits. It will be early in the run.

FWIW, 16 days out on the 06Z GFS, the second system to come off Africa is right where Harvey will be tomorrow. I don't buy that long of a range, but it's indicative of possible ripe conditions in a couple of weeks.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS 18hrs... @25 miles SE of 06z...

[pgoss11]

It is. But it's the only model that runs this early and is taken into consideration for steering and other upper issues by the NWS and NHC. It's been east of Florida the last several runs, but it's finally getting its **** together in regards to Irma (within 48 hours, so that tells you it's not equipped for tropical cyclone tracks).

So not necessarily good for tracking but good for synoptic and steering patterns?

Yeah. It's decent for smaller scale interactions on the continent. Hurricanes have to be north of 25N for any reasonable solutions to come out of it, but I would say that it was ahead of the game in pegging Harvey becoming super strong with a quality structure but screwed up its track most of the runs. GFS should be starting any minute now, and we'll see if it remains mostly with the consensus or wants to do its own thing. I hate the GFS this year, but again, we're around 40 hours until landfall so it's not going to be that bad. Pay particular attention to whether it hooks west and intensifies moving toward the FL Straits. It will be early in the run.

FWIW, 16 days out on the 06Z GFS, the second system to come off Africa is right where Harvey will be tomorrow. I don't buy that long of a range, but it's indicative of possible ripe conditions in a couple of weeks.

Thanks Steve. This year certainly seems to be headed for a prolific and catastrophic hurricane season.

[Steve]

12z GFS 18hrs... @25 miles SE of 06z...

NW at 30H and deepening @ 919mb. Cat 5?