ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

What a beautiful yet scary picture.

[tolakram]

Off topic but I think it should be a law that if you are in a Mandatory Evacuation area and are responsible for either children or the elderly and do not evacuate and as a result they get hurt or die you should be held responsible. CNN just had a guy on in Miami Beach has 2 kids and they are riding it out, yesterday it was a young girl with 2 kids in Homestead, 1 a 11 month old, and she was riding it out. These kids/elderly have no idea what is about to hit

My concern is the apparent ignorance to the post hurricane conditions. They ride it out without any issues and then are shocked that everything is such a mess they can't get food, water, or other essentials for days if not weeks. Hopefully they have supplies.

[pcolaman]

Amazing how Irma's outflow is not affecting Jose at all contrary to what models were earlier showing, is like the usual Pacific's atmospheric conditions are over the Atlantic

Just wow !

[Blown Away]

I expect another slight W shift at 11am...

[WeatherGuesser]

Off topic but I think it should be a law that if you are in a Mandatory Evacuation area and are responsible for either children or the elderly and do not evacuate and as a result they get hurt or die you should be held responsible. CNN just had a guy on in Miami Beach has 2 kids and they are riding it out, yesterday it was a young girl with 2 kids in Homestead, 1 a 11 month old, and she was riding it out. These kids/elderly have no idea what is about to hit

My concern is the apparent ignorance to the post hurricane conditions. They ride it out without any issues and then are shocked that everything is such a mess they can't get food, water, or other essentials for days if not weeks. Hopefully they have supplies.

Remember how long it has been. Many of these people have never seen a Hurricane of any intensity, let alone one like this. They have NO idea of what is about to happen. They have NO experience to base anything on.

[northjaxpro]

Seems both gfs and euro wanna strengthen this more whereas nhc wants to weaken her. Really depends on that massive ewrc. I was thinking she finished last night.

That's what people are overlooking, they both a did a very good job on forecasting Harvey to strengthen before landfall, this could be very well the same case and it regaining Cat 5 is not out of the question if not at least a strong Cat 4.

This is very worrisome. Great point NDG. The potential once the ERC is completed, Irma can rapidly intensify again., on this case a Cat 5. I pray that she does not do that. It is possible, especially given the conducive environment she is in right now!

[Evil Jeremy]

I expect another slight W shift at 11am...

.6 degrees west at 3 day point.

[PandaCitrus]

A 20 mile error on Euro would put the entire south east florida metro in the NE quadrant eyewall. I don't think people are understanding we are looking at a 50 mile eye and a 20 or 30 mile eyewall band surrounding it with the highest winds.

That is up to 100 mile swath of destruction from east coast to weat coast. This 50 mile eye is a really really bad thing.

[dukeblue219]

Dropsonde just came through from the last eyewall pass. Found 151 knots at around 1000 feet up and ended up splashing in 104kts -- looks to have been dropped in the SW quadrant, not the NE. The high winds are still there folks, even if they're not finding them at the surface routinely.

[flamingosun]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

...EYE OF HURRICANE IRMA MONITORED BY HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES AND
CUBAN RADARS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 75.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from Jupiter Inlet
northward to Sebastian Inlet and from Bonita Beach northward to
Venice.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of Sebastian Inlet to
Ponce Inlet.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the east
coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, and along the
west coast of Florida to Anclote River.

. . . snip . . .

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by both Air Force
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes was 927 mb (27.38 inches).

See the full advisory here{ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/081450.shtml

[znel52]

125700 2203N 07429W 6956 02765 9612 +091 +090 145141 147 132 021 03
125730 2205N 07428W 6975 02771 9653 +080 +078 141144 148 144 039 03
125800 2206N 07427W 6968 02804 9692 +070 +061 143137 140 141 036 03


What does the 03 at the end indicate? 05 means flagged correct? This looks off.

[utweather]

Off topic but I think it should be a law that if you are in a Mandatory Evacuation area and are responsible for either children or the elderly and do not evacuate and as a result they get hurt or die you should be held responsible. CNN just had a guy on in Miami Beach has 2 kids and they are riding it out, yesterday it was a young girl with 2 kids in Homestead, 1 a 11 month old, and she was riding it out. These kids/elderly have no idea what is about to hit

My concern is the apparent ignorance to the post hurricane conditions. They ride it out without any issues and then are shocked that everything is such a mess they can't get food, water, or other essentials for days if not weeks. Hopefully they have supplies.

Yeah, especially if Jose were to do the euro models loop and hit already damaged areas.

[jhpigott]

40 mile wide eye.... the width of the state from Naples to Miami is approx 100 miles..... A landfall at everglades city as the Euro states puts Miami-Dade County and points north in the East Eyewall or its periphery... These news stations need to put away these silly spaghetti lines unless they start making the lines 40 miles wide.

How many miles wide is the eyewall?

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes
indicate that Irma's intensity remains at 130 kt, although this
value could be 5 kt higher or lower. The central pressure has been
oscillating around 927 mb.

The environment continues to be favorable for Irma to maintain its
category 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles
could result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours.
Nevertheless, the NHC forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a
category 4 hurricane. Thereafter, interaction with land and an
increase in shear should induce gradual weakening.

Plane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of
Irma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12
kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24
hours. After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of
the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and
northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still
uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus
on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted
just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and
the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very
close to each other.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will
continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards to the Bahamas through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will
spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the
adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is likely to make landfall in Florida as a dangerous major
hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of
the state regardless of the exact track of the center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. In particular, the threat
of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of
Florida has increased, and 6 to 12 feet of inundation above ground
level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening
situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to
protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation
instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 4 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida peninsula Saturday through
Monday. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida
peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North
Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are
more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from
Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.8N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.7N 80.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.0N 81.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1200Z 29.3N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 34.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Steve]

I expect another slight W shift at 11am...

I haven't seen the new track, but from the discussion, "The new NHC forecast was adjusted
just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and
the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very
close to each other."

[Extratropical94]

USAF 16-35
112400 2121N 07345W 6963 02994 9873 +091 +019 201082 083 068 006 00
112430 2122N 07346W 6971 02977 9873 +087 +022 199084 085 072 004 00
112500 2123N 07348W 6962 02979 9861 +087 +024 198087 088 075 003 00
112530 2124N 07350W 6965 02966 9849 +087 +025 196090 091 076 003 00
112600 2125N 07351W 6969 02951 9837 +088 +026 193092 093 080 004 00
112630 2127N 07353W 6969 02938 9840 +074 +026 192097 098 081 010 00
112700 2128N 07355W 6970 02921 9828 +070 +024 194100 101 083 010 00
112730 2129N 07356W 6971 02903 9809 +070 +020 194105 107 087 012 00
112800 2130N 07358W 6967 02893 9789 +068 +016 194111 113 091 012 00
112830 2131N 07400W 6956 02883 9758 +076 +012 198115 115 096 012 00
112900 2132N 07401W 6965 02844 9723 +082 +010 197116 118 102 008 00
112930 2133N 07403W 6963 02819 9693 +085 +009 197122 123 109 014 00
113000 2135N 07404W 6964 02790 9651 +091 +010 200120 123 111 024 03
113030 2136N 07406W 6970 02754 9614 +094 +014 204122 125 /// /// 03
113100 2137N 07407W 6986 02709 9576 +104 +019 196097 125 125 006 02
113130 2138N 07409W 6959 02715 9521 +131 +023 191100 104 124 003 00
113200 2139N 07411W 6967 02681 9480 +146 +029 190092 093 109 003 00
113230 2140N 07413W 6969 02652 9440 +158 +037 187091 092 104 003 00
113300 2141N 07414W 6974 02617 9410 +156 +047 184091 093 082 002 00
113330 2143N 07416W 6961 02601 9382 +150 +056 178090 093 082 001 03
113400 2143N 07418W 6974 02554 9360 +139 +065 174080 089 079 005 00
113430 2144N 07420W 6976 02527 9324 +148 +071 171061 074 079 005 03
113500 2144N 07422W 6974 02511 9289 +165 +077 165039 053 064 002 00
113530 2143N 07424W 6967 02510 9283 +161 +082 168028 035 045 003 00
113600 2143N 07426W 6967 02506 9278 +160 +088 162015 025 035 002 00
113630 2142N 07428W 6967 02504 9277 +160 +092 086004 009 030 001 00
113700 2141N 07430W 6976 02500 9285 +158 +095 002008 009 032 002 00
113730 2141N 07431W 6970 02512 9298 +148 +097 324015 018 032 003 03
113800 2141N 07433W 6963 02523 9294 +155 +099 321016 018 034 001 00
113830 2142N 07434W 6973 02511 9287 +162 +099 341014 017 037 000 00
113900 2143N 07435W 6969 02515 9289 +161 +101 009020 023 037 001 00
113930 2145N 07437W 6970 02517 9292 +159 +102 016035 040 044 001 00
114000 2146N 07438W 6963 02532 9301 +158 +103 024048 052 055 001 00
114030 2147N 07439W 6968 02539 9310 +162 +104 027059 063 066 003 00
114100 2148N 07440W 6960 02561 9331 +155 +104 030068 070 070 006 00
114130 2149N 07441W 6970 02567 9363 +140 +103 030082 087 079 007 00
114200 2150N 07442W 6966 02590 9392 +131 +099 031095 099 089 013 00
114230 2151N 07444W 6967 02613 9410 +135 +094 035097 099 091 006 00
114300 2152N 07445W 6971 02631 9415 +157 +087 037099 101 098 001 03
114330 2154N 07446W 6962 02664 9446 +152 +084 040100 101 103 000 03
114400 2155N 07447W 6967 02679 9477 +142 +084 044100 100 113 000 03
114430 2156N 07448W 6966 02698 9506 +133 +084 044098 100 114 001 00
114500 2157N 07449W 6967 02720 9544 +117 +083 052102 108 114 001 00
114530 2158N 07450W 6942 02782 9604 +089 +079 052128 134 107 019 03
114600 2200N 07452W 6995 02743 9650 +078 +069 043126 134 118 040 00
114630 2200N 07452W 6995 02743 9670 +078 +056 043126 128 104 023 00
114700 2201N 07454W 6967 02816 9699 +076 +043 045126 127 102 021 00
114730 2203N 07455W 6966 02836 9722 +073 +032 048127 128 098 014 00
114800 2204N 07456W 6961 02863 9732 +085 +023 050124 127 093 007 00
114830 2205N 07457W 6972 02866 9748 +088 +017 050120 120 090 007 00
114900 2206N 07458W 6967 02886 9764 +089 +014 052118 120 085 006 00
114930 2207N 07459W 6971 02895 9789 +080 +012 053112 115 085 008 00
115000 2208N 07500W 6963 02920 9804 +083 +011 052106 109 084 007 00
115030 2209N 07502W 6968 02928 9804 +094 +011 052105 106 080 006 00
115100 2211N 07503W 6967 02941 9810 +100 +011 054103 104 078 007 00
115130 2212N 07504W 6967 02949 9833 +089 +013 055100 102 076 009 00
115200 2213N 07505W 6963 02964 9849 +083 +014 057098 099 075 013 00
115230 2214N 07507W 6963 02971 9853 +088 +013 059097 098 073 012 00
115300 2216N 07508W 6970 02973 9856 +095 +014 059094 097 073 007 00
115330 2217N 07509W 6965 02987 9860 +098 +014 060091 092 075 007 00
115400 2218N 07511W 6966 02994 9878 +091 +016 062090 091 072 007 00
115430 2220N 07512W 6968 02997 9875 +101 +018 061087 091 073 004 00
115500 2221N 07513W 6965 03009 9881 +101 +020 063083 085 072 004 00
115530 2222N 07515W 6967 03012 9902 +090 +022 062084 087 071 005 00
115600 2224N 07516W 6968 03017 9925 +077 +023 063089 090 069 007 00
115630 2225N 07517W 6966 03027 9930 +077 +021 059083 089 069 010 00
115700 2227N 07519W 6965 03033 9930 +083 +017 059083 084 069 009 00
115730 2228N 07520W 6966 03034 9932 +085 +014 062082 084 068 007 00
115800 2229N 07522W 6967 03037 9932 +087 +012 062086 087 068 007 00
115830 2231N 07523W 6967 03043 9935 +090 +012 063088 090 065 008 00
115900 2232N 07524W 6969 03045 9952 +081 +014 062090 091 062 010 03
115930 2233N 07526W 6965 03054 9960 +078 +014 061089 090 065 012 03
120000 2235N 07527W 6967 03054 9970 +074 +013 061093 099 063 013 03
120030 2236N 07528W 6967 03061 9979 +071 +012 061097 099 062 013 00
120100 2237N 07530W 6967 03063 9979 +074 +010 061089 095 062 012 03
120130 2238N 07531W 6968 03068 9994 +067 +008 060082 086 /// /// 03
120200 2240N 07532W 6967 03072 0002 +065 +006 058083 085 057 014 03
120230 2241N 07534W 6967 03076 0009 +063 +004 055085 086 056 015 03
120300 2242N 07535W 6965 03083 0012 +064 +001 056081 085 056 015 03
120330 2244N 07536W 6967 03082 0008 +070 -001 060077 080 052 021 03
120400 2245N 07538W 6968 03087 0012 +071 -001 062074 075 053 019 00
120430 2246N 07539W 6972 03084 0017 +067 -000 060078 082 054 021 03
120500 2248N 07540W 6960 03099 0020 +066 -001 061080 083 053 012 03
120530 2249N 07542W 6972 03089 0018 +074 -001 058082 083 055 010 00
120600 2250N 07543W 6965 03101 0009 +084 -001 058082 082 051 006 00
120630 2252N 07544W 6979 03085 0013 +082 +003 059074 081 052 008 00
120700 2253N 07546W 6962 03109 0008 +087 +005 060075 077 052 003 00
120730 2254N 07547W 6970 03105 0003 +096 +009 062076 077 052 001 00
120800 2254N 07547W 6970 03105 0011 +092 +014 061072 075 051 001 00
120830 2257N 07550W 6967 03113 0021 +086 +019 058071 072 050 002 00
120900 2258N 07551W 6968 03115 0027 +082 +022 056074 076 049 003 00
120930 2300N 07553W 6966 03120 0021 +088 +024 057074 075 047 002 03
121000 2300N 07555W 6963 03124 0020 +090 +028 056075 075 /// /// 03
121030 2258N 07556W 6967 03120 0023 +088 +032 055073 074 /// /// 03
121100 2256N 07556W 6972 03111 0024 +085 +034 053073 073 047 003 00
121130 2254N 07556W 6978 03101 0021 +086 +034 052071 073 049 001 00
121200 2252N 07556W 6967 03113 0013 +090 +033 053070 071 049 002 00
121230 2250N 07556W 6967 03112 0009 +093 +033 054072 074 050 002 00
121300 2247N 07557W 6967 03110 0005 +093 +033 053074 074 051 001 00
121330 2245N 07557W 6963 03113 0007 +092 +033 051076 077 050 001 00
121400 2243N 07557W 6966 03109 0005 +092 +034 048078 080 050 002 00
121430 2241N 07558W 6973 03100 0023 +075 +034 047077 080 050 003 00
121500 2239N 07558W 6966 03105 0027 +070 +032 050071 075 050 007 00
121530 2236N 07558W 6968 03098 0016 +075 +028 046069 070 049 009 03
121600 2234N 07558W 6973 03094 9998 +091 +025 047068 070 048 008 00
121630 2232N 07558W 6959 03107 9988 +095 +023 045073 075 048 009 03
121700 2230N 07559W 6966 03096 9985 +095 +023 043076 076 049 001 00
121730 2228N 07600W 6965 03095 9986 +095 +026 041076 077 048 002 03
121800 2226N 07600W 6972 03084 0000 +081 +028 038073 075 051 004 00
121830 2223N 07601W 6961 03096 0017 +064 +028 034073 076 051 004 00
121900 2221N 07601W 6971 03083 0003 +076 +024 037072 076 054 005 00
121930 2221N 07601W 6971 03083 0000 +077 +023 038071 073 055 005 00
122000 2221N 07601W 6971 03083 0000 +077 +023 038071 073 055 005 00
122030 2221N 07601W 6971 03083 0000 +077 +023 038071 073 055 005 00
122100 2221N 07601W 6971 03083 0000 +077 +023 038071 073 055 005 00
122130 2221N 07601W 6971 03083 0000 +077 +023 038071 073 055 005 00
122200 2207N 07605W 6965 03076 9985 +084 +015 033073 074 055 005 03
122230 2205N 07606W 6967 03078 9992 +078 +012 026078 081 /// /// 03
122300 2203N 07607W 6965 03082 0001 +072 +012 023081 082 053 005 00
122330 2201N 07608W 6972 03076 9996 +077 +011 023079 083 053 003 00
122400 2201N 07608W 6972 03076 9989 +081 +011 024075 078 053 003 00
122430 2156N 07607W 6969 03075 9978 +088 +011 022066 072 053 002 00
122500 2154N 07606W 6968 03074 9981 +084 +012 024065 066 055 002 00
122530 2152N 07605W 6969 03069 9975 +086 +014 023067 070 055 002 03
122600 2150N 07606W 6966 03075 9975 +087 +016 018069 071 053 003 00
122630 2147N 07606W 6963 03077 9969 +090 +020 016070 072 052 003 03
122700 2147N 07606W 6963 03077 9962 +092 +023 017068 069 050 003 03
122730 2146N 07603W 6971 03060 9951 +098 +026 021068 070 052 002 00
122800 2146N 07601W 6969 03058 9943 +101 +029 018071 073 052 003 00
122830 2146N 07600W 6964 03058 9956 +085 +031 019070 074 051 009 00
122900 2146N 07558W 6973 03046 9960 +077 +031 018072 074 053 015 00
122930 2146N 07556W 6967 03051 9955 +079 +028 021076 077 053 017 03
123000 2146N 07555W 6959 03051 9948 +079 +025 022080 083 052 020 03
123030 2146N 07553W 6969 03041 9949 +077 +022 021070 079 057 009 03
123100 2146N 07552W 6967 03039 9934 +088 +020 020066 067 056 008 00
123130 2146N 07550W 6965 03038 9923 +093 +019 018066 068 056 005 00
123200 2146N 07548W 6967 03032 9925 +088 +019 016068 070 057 008 00
123230 2146N 07547W 6965 03026 9918 +088 +021 018069 071 058 008 00
123300 2146N 07545W 6965 03024 9915 +088 +022 017066 067 062 009 00
123330 2146N 07543W 6967 03018 9912 +088 +023 013066 067 062 008 00
123400 2146N 07542W 6969 03012 9913 +081 +023 013067 069 060 009 00
123430 2146N 07540W 6963 03011 9905 +082 +023 018070 071 060 008 00
123500 2146N 07538W 6970 02998 9878 +098 +022 014068 070 060 007 00
123530 2146N 07537W 6962 03002 9877 +095 +023 015070 071 061 004 00
123600 2146N 07535W 6972 02983 9862 +103 +025 015072 073 063 004 00
123630 2146N 07533W 6966 02987 9850 +108 +028 013075 078 064 003 00
123700 2146N 07532W 6973 02973 9842 +110 +033 014078 080 065 001 00
123730 2146N 07530W 6971 02967 9841 +102 +037 014080 081 066 002 00
123800 2146N 07528W 6967 02962 9831 +101 +039 015080 082 068 005 00
123830 2146N 07527W 6972 02944 9817 +102 +041 014084 084 069 004 00
123900 2146N 07525W 6969 02944 9825 +090 +041 015088 089 069 006 00
123930 2146N 07524W 6969 02934 9806 +099 +041 014094 096 073 005 00
124000 2146N 07522W 6964 02921 9788 +098 +040 015100 101 073 004 00
124030 2146N 07521W 6966 02909 9780 +093 +039 013100 101 075 003 00
124100 2146N 07519W 6963 02899 9761 +096 +038 011105 106 076 003 00
124130 2146N 07518W 6970 02872 9743 +096 +038 011108 109 079 004 00
124200 2146N 07516W 6970 02854 9726 +093 +037 010110 112 082 006 00
124230 2146N 07515W 6962 02843 9714 +082 +037 011115 118 088 009 00
124300 2146N 07513W 6974 02805 9691 +080 +035 008119 120 091 016 00
124330 2147N 07512W 6968 02796 9671 +079 +030 002121 121 091 030 00
124400 2147N 07510W 6969 02773 9649 +079 +025 000121 124 100 057 00
124430 2147N 07509W 6925 02797 9606 +087 +022 008124 131 103 036 03
124500 2147N 07507W 6987 02683 9552 +106 +023 012098 119 109 017 00
124530 2147N 07506W 6955 02706 9497 +132 +026 004094 097 107 002 00
124600 2147N 07504W 6971 02652 9457 +144 +031 002096 097 110 004 00
124630 2147N 07502W 6966 02628 9444 +123 +038 002098 099 111 008 00
124700 2147N 07500W 6967 02594 9423 +107 +043 004097 099 098 017 00
124730 2147N 07459W 6967 02566 9371 +129 +045 002078 096 088 019 03
124800 2147N 07457W 6971 02538 9320 +160 +048 357056 063 078 006 00
124830 2147N 07455W 6969 02521 9295 +166 +054 356044 053 056 002 00
124900 2147N 07453W 6966 02512 9283 +161 +065 352026 038 041 002 00
124930 2147N 07451W 6967 02506 9275 +165 +076 000009 019 036 001 03
125000 2147N 07449W 6965 02506 9275 +162 +086 355002 006 030 000 00
125030 2147N 07447W 6971 02496 9268 +168 +093 222005 007 030 000 03
125100 2148N 07445W 6966 02502 9271 +162 +099 173011 016 030 002 03
125130 2148N 07445W 6966 02502 9272 +159 +102 159024 030 035 001 00
125200 2150N 07443W 6970 02500 9279 +155 +105 157039 045 043 002 00
125230 2152N 07441W 6963 02518 9287 +156 +106 153053 057 056 004 00
125300 2153N 07440W 6970 02524 9307 +153 +107 153067 072 076 004 00
125330 2154N 07438W 6969 02552 9339 +146 +107 148090 097 078 003 00
125400 2156N 07437W 6970 02582 9368 +149 +106 145096 097 080 001 00
125430 2157N 07436W 6970 02611 9389 +159 +104 144095 096 086 000 03
125500 2158N 07434W 6960 02651 9418 +162 +104 143100 102 100 001 03
125530 2158N 07434W 6960 02651 9455 +147 +104 146105 109 113 000 03
125600 2201N 07432W 6965 02694 9500 +130 +104 147116 118 124 000 03
125630 2202N 07430W 6973 02706 9541 +118 +101 150119 125 132 019 03
125700 2203N 07429W 6956 02765 9612 +091 +090 145141 147 132 021 03
125730 2205N 07428W 6975 02771 9653 +080 +078 141144 148 144 039 03
125800 2206N 07427W 6968 02804 9692 +070 +061 143137 140 141 036 03
125830 2207N 07425W 6960 02842 9724 +070 +046 141132 137 113 023 00
125900 2208N 07424W 6974 02848 9753 +068 +034 139128 129 108 016 00
125930 2209N 07423W 6965 02882 9770 +075 +025 138125 125 103 008 00
130000 2210N 07422W 6967 02899 9779 +086 +018 138121 124 100 007 00
130030 2211N 07421W 6966 02915 9795 +090 +013 136114 119 097 006 00
130100 2212N 07420W 6967 02928 9818 +082 +012 135112 116 088 010 00
130130 2213N 07418W 6965 02944 9834 +082 +011 136107 108 087 010 00
130200 2215N 07417W 6967 02951 9849 +080 +010 135105 109 080 010 00
130230 2216N 07416W 6967 02964 9865 +076 +009 135099 102 080 012 00
130300 2217N 07415W 6970 02969 9872 +078 +008 135095 098 079 013 00
130330 2218N 07414W 6957 02998 9881 +081 +007 139094 098 078 022 00
130400 2218N 07414W 6957 02998 9893 +076 +006 136088 094 076 025 03
130430 2220N 07411W 6974 02993 9912 +071 +005 134095 098 076 014 00
130500 2222N 07410W 6963 03011 9917 +073 +004 133101 101 075 009 00
130530 2223N 07409W 6970 03012 9927 +073 +002 132100 102 069 007 00
130600 2224N 07408W 6953 03038 9929 +077 +001 137100 102 061 013 03
130630 2225N 07406W 6965 03031 9936 +076 +001 136099 100 060 014 03
130700 2226N 07405W 6976 03018 9943 +076 +001 135096 097 /// /// 03
130730 2227N 07404W 6970 03034 9948 +075 +001 133096 099 /// /// 03
130800 2228N 07403W 6964 03046 9955 +075 +001 135087 094 062 013 03
130830 2230N 07401W 6967 03045 9963 +074 +002 131087 091 060 011 00
130900 2231N 07400W 6983 03028 9969 +071 +002 138086 089 062 011 03
130930 2232N 07359W 6965 03057 9965 +079 +002 140090 092 061 005 00
131000 2233N 07358W 6973 03054 9963 +087 +002 139094 094 060 002 00
131030 2234N 07356W 6966 03066 9959 +093 +003 140094 094 058 001 00
131100 2236N 07355W 6969 03066 9969 +088 +007 139096 100 071 004 03
131130 2237N 07354W 6973 03063 9978 +082 +012 134096 100 /// /// 03
131200 2238N 07353W 6969 03073 9988 +078 +013 136090 092 /// /// 03
131230 2239N 07351W 6967 03079 9977 +090 +014 134087 092 087 003 00
131300 2240N 07350W 6963 03091 9995 +082 +016 129087 089 082 009 00
131330 2241N 07349W 6973 03079 9991 +087 +017 134088 090 063 003 00
131400 2243N 07348W 6967 03095 9999 +087 +018 133083 087 071 001 03
131430 2244N 07347W 6970 03094 9999 +088 +020 133083 085 068 000 00
131500 2245N 07345W 6967 03102 0011 +082 +021 134082 085 061 005 00
131530 2246N 07344W 6967 03104 0015 +082 +022 133077 081 062 004 00
131600 2247N 07343W 6972 03102 0019 +082 +022 133073 075 060 005 00
131630 2248N 07342W 6968 03110 0031 +074 +021 132076 078 059 006 00
131700 2250N 07340W 6966 03116 0033 +077 +019 130073 074 058 007 00
131730 2251N 07339W 6965 03117 0039 +072 +017 131076 078 056 009 00
131800 2252N 07338W 6966 03118 0041 +073 +015 130075 077 056 008 00
131830 2253N 07337W 6966 03121 0034 +080 +014 129075 075 055 007 00
131900 2254N 07335W 6971 03116 0039 +078 +013 128074 075 055 007 00
131930 2255N 07334W 6968 03123 0039 +081 +012 129074 075 053 007 00
132000 2257N 07333W 6965 03128 0040 +081 +012 130075 075 054 006 00
132030 2258N 07332W 6970 03124 0037 +086 +012 131076 076 053 004 00
132100 2259N 07330W 6970 03126 0035 +088 +013 130075 076 053 003 00
132130 2300N 07329W 6969 03128 0031 +094 +015 131075 075 053 001 00
132200 2301N 07328W 6965 03137 0033 +095 +018 130074 075 051 001 00
132230 2302N 07327W 6967 03134 0033 +094 +021 131074 075 051 001 00
132300 2304N 07325W 6973 03129 0036 +093 +025 131072 074 050 001 00
132330 2305N 07324W 6962 03140 0033 +092 +029 130072 072 049 002 03
132400 2307N 07325W 6971 03130 0035 +095 +033 127071 072 /// /// 03
132430 2307N 07327W 6963 03143 0037 +091 +037 126071 071 /// /// 03
132500 2306N 07330W 6967 03135 0033 +091 +039 127073 074 050 002 00
132530 2306N 07332W 6967 03133 0032 +094 +039 127074 074 051 001 00
132600 2306N 07334W 6968 03132 0031 +094 +040 125074 074 051 000 00
132630 2307N 07337W 6968 03129 0030 +091 +040 124075 075 054 000 00
132700 2307N 07339W 6969 03128 0027 +095 +040 126076 076 052 002 00
132730 2307N 07342W 6967 03127 0023 +095 +040 125076 077 058 001 00
132800 2307N 07344W 6967 03127 0017 +098 +039 125077 077 057 001 00
132830 2307N 07347W 6969 03122 0017 +097 +039 124077 078 056 001 00
132900 2307N 07349W 6965 03126 0019 +095 +039 123078 079 055 003 00
132930 2307N 07352W 6968 03120 0017 +094 +039 121078 079 056 003 00
133000 2307N 07354W 6967 03120 0019 +090 +038 121079 080 055 003 00
133030 2307N 07357W 6968 03117 0021 +089 +036 120081 081 056 005 00
133100 2307N 07400W 6968 03116 0027 +084 +034 119080 080 056 007 00
133130 2308N 07402W 6965 03117 0027 +081 +031 118079 080 057 007 00
133200 2308N 07402W 6965 03117 0024 +082 +028 118080 081 057 010 03
133230 2308N 07407W 6968 03111 0029 +077 +025 117081 082 058 009 00
133300 2308N 07410W 6966 03111 0028 +077 +021 118083 084 058 008 00
133330 2308N 07412W 6969 03105 0015 +085 +018 116082 084 058 007 00
133400 2308N 07415W 6968 03104 0007 +090 +016 113084 084 059 006 00
133430 2308N 07418W 6969 03103 0016 +082 +016 109083 084 058 006 00
133500 2308N 07420W 6966 03105 0020 +077 +015 109085 086 057 008 00
133530 2308N 07423W 6967 03101 0015 +080 +013 112083 084 057 010 00
133600 2308N 07426W 6966 03101 0011 +081 +012 111080 083 058 009 00
133630 2308N 07428W 6967 03099 0002 +088 +010 107077 079 057 006 00
133700 2309N 07431W 6967 03098 9995 +091 +010 105083 084 059 006 00
133730 2309N 07434W 6968 03095 9993 +094 +011 104084 086 060 006 00
133800 2309N 07436W 6968 03093 9996 +090 +013 103083 084 061 005 00
133830 2309N 07439W 6966 03096 9999 +087 +014 101084 085 061 005 00
133900 2309N 07442W 6970 03089 9997 +087 +015 102085 086 061 007 00
133930 2309N 07444W 6969 03093 9984 +097 +016 101084 085 061 006 00
134000 2309N 07447W 6966 03093 9988 +092 +016 098085 087 061 006 00
134030 2309N 07450W 6974 03084 9988 +091 +017 097085 088 062 005 00
134100 2309N 07452W 6967 03092 9991 +090 +018 096087 088 061 004 00
134130 2309N 07455W 6966 03094 9992 +089 +018 096089 090 061 004 00
134200 2309N 07458W 6968 03090 9984 +097 +019 095085 088 060 004 00
134230 2310N 07501W 6969 03089 9978 +100 +020 096083 084 060 005 00
134300 2310N 07503W 6962 03098 9982 +097 +023 095085 085 075 010 03
134330 2310N 07506W 6970 03089 9989 +090 +026 093086 087 /// /// 03
134400 2310N 07509W 6966 03093 9991 +089 +028 090087 088 /// /// 03
134430 2310N 07511W 6966 03093 9985 +095 +029 088089 090 /// /// 03
134500 2310N 07514W 6972 03088 9990 +092 +030 087091 091 060 000 03
134530 2310N 07517W 6967 03093 9991 +091 +030 084089 090 059 000 00
134600 2310N 07520W 6971 03090 9994 +090 +030 081086 087 055 002 00
134630 2310N 07522W 6969 03094 9992 +093 +030 080087 087 056 001 00
134700 2310N 07525W 6966 03099 9992 +094 +031 080088 088 055 002 00
134730 2310N 07528W 6970 03094 9993 +094 +031 080088 089 053 004 00
134800 2310N 07531W 6968 03100 9991 +096 +031 079087 088 053 003 00
134830 2311N 07533W 6969 03100 9997 +092 +031 079086 087 054 003 00
134900 2311N 07536W 6967 03103 9996 +094 +030 078085 086 053 004 00
134930 2311N 07539W 6967 03103 9999 +090 +030 078083 084 055 002 00
135000 2311N 07541W 6967 03106 0007 +087 +030 077081 084 055 002 00
135030 2311N 07544W 6967 03105 0010 +088 +029 077081 082 056 001 00
135100 2311N 07546W 6969 03107 0011 +088 +028 075080 081 055 001 00
135130 2311N 07549W 6965 03112 0013 +088 +028 074079 080 053 002 00
135200 2311N 07552W 6971 03107 0022 +083 +029 073080 080 050 000 00
135230 2311N 07554W 6970 03111 0034 +075 +029 071080 080 048 001 00
135300 2311N 07557W 6969 03116 0035 +077 +028 068075 079 048 001 00
135330 2311N 07559W 6959 03129 0025 +086 +026 068076 076 047 001 00
135400 2311N 07602W 6970 03118 0020 +094 +026 070073 076 049 001 00
135430 2311N 07605W 6959 03132 0024 +091 +027 068074 076 049 002 00
135500 2311N 07607W 6970 03118 0033 +085 +029 066070 072 049 001 00
135530 2311N 07610W 6973 03118 0042 +078 +030 066071 072 047 004 00
135600 2312N 07612W 6967 03127 0027 +093 +028 063069 070 046 001 00
135630 2312N 07614W 6967 03129 0024 +098 +028 062068 069 044 000 00
135700 2312N 07617W 6968 03130 0027 +096 +030 061069 070 044 000 00
135730 2312N 07619W 6970 03130 0029 +095 +033 061068 070 044 000 00
135800 2312N 07622W 6967 03134 0032 +094 +035 061067 068 044 000 00
135830 2312N 07624W 6970 03130 0036 +091 +037 060066 066 046 002 00
135900 2312N 07627W 6964 03139 0034 +094 +038 061066 067 046 001 00
135930 2312N 07629W 6970 03133 0041 +089 +040 059064 066 046 000 00
140000 2312N 07632W 6967 03137 0043 +087 +040 060061 062 046 000 00
140030 2312N 07634W 6971 03134 0043 +090 +039 056064 065 048 002 00
140100 2312N 07636W 6968 03137 0044 +089 +038 057064 065 049 001 03
140130 2312N 07639W 6955 03154 0043 +090 +038 057064 064 045 002 03
140200 2310N 07639W 6969 03137 0042 +091 +039 058062 063 /// /// 03
140230 2309N 07638W 6968 03138 0044 +090 +038 056061 062 049 002 00
140300 2307N 07637W 6970 03135 0041 +090 +038 058061 062 048 000 00
140330 2306N 07635W 6967 03134 0040 +090 +037 058061 062 049 000 00
140400 2305N 07634W 6970 03130 0034 +091 +036 057063 063 048 000 00
140430 2304N 07633W 6967 03134 0030 +094 +036 057064 065 048 000 00
140500 2303N 07632W 6969 03130 0041 +085 +036 056064 066 046 000 00
140530 2302N 07630W 6969 03128 0039 +085 +036 054063 064 046 000 00
140600 2301N 07629W 6970 03127 0032 +090 +036 052065 065 046 001 00
140630 2300N 07628W 6967 03127 0028 +091 +036 050063 064 047 001 00
140700 2258N 07627W 6969 03122 0054 +066 +035 042061 063 047 005 03
140730 2257N 07625W 6974 03117 0040 +080 +030 057065 068 051 008 00
140800 2256N 07624W 6962 03124 0013 +095 +024 060068 069 051 005 00
140830 2255N 07623W 6970 03113 0017 +092 +022 060071 072 048 003 00
140900 2254N 07622W 6969 03113 0020 +088 +023 060071 072 047 002 00
140930 2253N 07620W 6963 03117 0023 +082 +024 057070 071 046 001 00
141000 2252N 07619W 6970 03109 0030 +075 +023 054070 071 045 002 00
141030 2250N 07618W 6966 03110 0029 +074 +022 056072 073 046 003 00
141100 2249N 07617W 6963 03111 0003 +093 +018 059078 079 048 000 00
141130 2248N 07616W 6973 03094 9992 +097 +017 059083 083 047 001 00
141200 2247N 07615W 6967 03099 9998 +091 +017 059082 083 049 001 00
141230 2246N 07613W 6967 03096 0003 +085 +019 058079 081 049 001 00
141300 2245N 07612W 6967 03091 0000 +081 +019 056079 080 051 003 00
141330 2244N 07611W 6967 03089 9995 +085 +019 055077 078 052 003 00
141400 2243N 07610W 6967 03087 9982 +092 +019 053079 080 054 001 00
141430 2242N 07609W 6970 03079 9970 +100 +019 052083 084 054 002 00
141500 2241N 07607W 6969 03078 9967 +098 +020 051083 084 054 001 00
141530 2240N 07606W 6967 03074 9964 +096 +022 051085 085 055 002 00
141600 2238N 07605W 6969 03071 9962 +094 +023 052088 089 055 001 00
141630 2237N 07604W 6966 03068 9951 +099 +024 051087 090 057 002 00
141700 2236N 07603W 6970 03060 9961 +089 +025 055083 087 057 002 00
141730 2235N 07601W 6965 03063 9972 +075 +024 056083 086 057 006 00
141800 2234N 07600W 6969 03054 9946 +094 +021 056083 087 060 006 00
141830 2233N 07559W 6965 03053 9939 +095 +018 053086 087 060 005 00
141900 2232N 07558W 6965 03049 9945 +085 +017 051088 089 061 007 00
141930 2231N 07557W 6964 03042 9944 +081 +017 052085 088 063 010 00
142000 2230N 07555W 6972 03028 9932 +085 +015 051085 087 065 007 00
142030 2229N 07554W 6967 03028 9920 +089 +013 051084 086 065 006 00
142100 2228N 07553W 6967 03021 9914 +090 +011 051085 086 066 006 00
142130 2226N 07552W 6971 03010 9899 +096 +011 050085 086 066 004 00
142200 2225N 07551W 6968 03007 9889 +097 +012 049086 086 080 003 00
142230 2224N 07549W 6966 03001 9878 +100 +014 050087 088 094 003 03
142300 2223N 07548W 6967 02992 9866 +103 +016 049087 088 095 001 00
142330 2222N 07547W 6967 02986 9871 +091 +017 050093 095 078 002 00
142400 2221N 07546W 6966 02978 9863 +090 +018 051094 096 087 007 00
142430 2220N 07545W 6967 02969 9848 +093 +017 048093 093 087 007 00
142500 2219N 07543W 6970 02956 9829 +101 +016 047097 099 081 005 00
142530 2218N 07542W 6970 02945 9827 +093 +015 047102 104 081 007 00
142600 2217N 07541W 6967 02936 9812 +095 +016 049108 109 086 006 00
142630 2216N 07540W 6973 02915 9795 +095 +016 052114 115 085 006 00
142700 2215N 07539W 6971 02903 9774 +100 +015 051117 119 086 009 00
142730 2214N 07538W 6963 02898 9771 +089 +015 049119 120 091 006 00
142800 2213N 07537W 6967 02882 9762 +085 +014 045122 123 091 008 00
142830 2212N 07536W 6968 02864 9752 +077 +011 043127 129 095 013 00
142900 2211N 07535W 6963 02847 9725 +080 +008 043125 129 099 030 00
142930 2209N 07533W 6972 02813 9702 +076 +006 045126 128 101 029 00
143000 2208N 07532W 6970 02786 9661 +084 +004 047129 132 106 036 03
143030 2207N 07531W 6965 02764 9620 +092 +005 050129 135 /// /// 03
143100 2207N 07530W 6979 02730 9588 +098 +010 055117 127 124 047 03
143130 2206N 07529W 6978 02698 9553 +106 +014 050100 106 120 019 00
143200 2204N 07528W 6974 02680 9501 +133 +019 048097 098 117 005 00
143230 2203N 07527W 6967 02664 9464 +145 +025 048092 097 111 001 03
143300 2202N 07526W 6972 02636 9420 +166 +033 047084 089 099 000 03
143330 2201N 07524W 6963 02624 9393 +168 +045 046082 084 088 001 00
143400 2200N 07523W 6969 02594 9363 +170 +058 045080 083 074 001 00
143430 2159N 07522W 6967 02567 9336 +168 +070 044066 076 067 003 03
143500 2157N 07520W 6966 02549 9317 +165 +081 048056 061 064 000 00
143530 2156N 07519W 6970 02527 9291 +175 +089 054049 054 055 001 00
143600 2155N 07518W 6969 02512 9272 +176 +097 059037 045 043 001 00
143630 2154N 07517W 6965 02515 9281 +163 +102 062016 029 034 001 03
143700 2152N 07516W 6970 02510 9286 +158 +107 083008 014 030 000 00
143730 2151N 07515W 6969 02515 9289 +159 +110 159004 006 032 001 00
143800 2149N 07514W 6964 02524 9293 +157 +112 216009 011 034 000 00
143830 2148N 07513W 6970 02521 9300 +157 +113 238018 020 036 001 00
143900 2146N 07511W 6970 02532 9312 +153 +112 239027 031 040 001 03
143930 2145N 07510W 6967 02546 9320 +157 +112 235039 045 047 002 00
144000 2144N 07508W 6967 02560 9338 +155 +112 232053 056 060 004 00
144030 2143N 07507W 6970 02575 9362 +150 +110 228062 064 073 007 00
144100 2142N 07505W 6975 02590 9411 +123 +107 228078 088 086 020 00
144130 2141N 07504W 6973 02623 9462 +103 +098 224092 094 107 017 00
144200 2140N 07502W 6964 02669 9468 +136 +083 221095 099 112 004 00
144230 2139N 07501W 6966 02689 9511 +117 +072 219097 100 116 010 00
144300 2137N 07500W 6959 02725 9561 +100 +061 227098 103 116 016 03
144330 2136N 07459W 6984 02740 9616 +089 +053 228109 112 111 028 03

[Full8s]

I'm sure many of you have used this resource before, but for those who are inland like myself, and who are still anxiously following forecast wind speeds, this tabular forecast is very helpful:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=hi&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w10u=0&w12u=1&w13u=1&AheadHour=0&FcstType=digital&textField1=28.3577&textField2=-82.6995&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=&AheadDay.x=60&AheadDay.y=6&AheadDay=48

[NDG]

Seems both gfs and euro wanna strengthen this more whereas nhc wants to weaken her. Really depends on that massive ewrc. I was thinking she finished last night.

That's what people are overlooking, they both a did a very good job on forecasting Harvey to strengthen before landfall, this could be very well the same case and it regaining Cat 5 is not out of the question if not at least a strong Cat 4.

This is very worrisome. Great point NDG. The potential once the ERC is completed, Irma can rapidly intensify again., on this case a Cat 5. I pray that she does not do that. It is possible, especially given the conducive environment she is in right now!

Not only that but if Irma is is on a stage of strengthening before making landfall and tracks over the flat, wet grasslands of the Everglades Irma could not loose any strength or very little at the most until it starts tracking over Hendry County if not Glade County or past Lake O.

[dukeblue219]

Look at that eye opening up now: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=782&y=1112&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Floodo_Is_My_Hero]

What a beautiful yet scary picture.

It looks like an evil face with the 2 eyes in that picture...just had knee surgery so that may be the pain meds talking!