ATL: JOSE - Models

[Powellrm]

god what a nightmare scenario. thats a long ways off, but still. damn.

[GlennOBX]

Yes, I watched this loop!

Not sure how to embed.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/34 ... 44dd72.gif

Just wrap it in image tags like you would any other type of image. That's what I did above.

What model is this? And at what timeframe would it cross the Outer Banks as depicted? I understand it's not a forecast, just curious.

[forecasterjack]

The fact that the Leeward Islands could deal with another strong hurricane this weekend makes me sick to my stomach. https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/640-w-160-n/2017090712-240-jose.html

[SootyTern]

Wasn't there a movie where the lead characters re-lived the same day over and over again?

I look at model runs and I can't keep track of which storm they are talking about anymore. And there is another one possibly after Jose? Lordy...

At least it is easier to track the one that is the most immediate threat to my location; now that we are under a watch all sorts of wonderful NWS products are out to give detailed and solid info on expected local conditions.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

This season is starting to remind me of 2004. Lets hope the ITCZ has nothing else in the pipe behind Jose

FYI: Jeanne did the same act

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q ... 1467372054

[stormreader]

0Z Euro loop solution

https://i.imgur.com/X6UMhP4.gif

Unreal. But this season is looking unreal.

[AutoPenalti]

What the heck Euro, oh boy I hope that doesn't pan out.

[LarryWx]

I did a double take when I saw this, but many members (nearly half) of the 0Z EPS actually hit the CONUS with Jose (yes, Jose) between 9/16 and 9/22 anywhere from FL to ME! So, we may have to deal with Jose here in the CONUS after all in 8-14 days!

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF simulated satellite has the eyewall of Jose passing over the exact same areas that just got creamed by Irma. Not good news https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/640-w-160-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170910-0000z.html

[SoupBone]

Any model updates? Is Jose still expected to turn north? I feel for this islands currently in his path.

[shaneomac]

Any model updates? Is Jose still expected to turn north? I feel for this islands currently in his path.

12 z models have Jose meandering in the atlantic then eventually getting picked up by trof and moving off into the atlantic avoiding any land.. but subject to change over course we are 10 days out !

[MrStormX]

Any model updates? Is Jose still expected to turn north? I feel for this islands currently in his path.

12 z models have Jose meandering in the atlantic then eventually getting picked up by trof and moving off into the atlantic avoiding any land.. but subject to change over course we are 10 days out !

Indeed, ultimately what Irma does is ultimately going to impact Jose's direction.

[sma10]

I know Jose is an immediate problem for the islands this weekend, but really wasn't thinking he'd be even a hint of a threat down the road. But the JMA, Euro and UK all have him meandering pretty darn close to the Bahamas end of next week.

[Mello1]

Ahem, that is an insane track. Seriously??????

[jlauderdal]

0Z Euro loop solution

https://i.imgur.com/X6UMhP4.gif

Unreal. But this season is looking unreal.

i guess i will have to start monitoring this thread too...interesting loop it takes but certainly not without precedent...euro was very good with irma and continues to be so will have to go with that until further notice...hopefully the leewards get spared anything real nasty

[Michele B]

0Z Euro loop solution

https://i.imgur.com/X6UMhP4.gif

Unreal. But this season is looking unreal.

Looking at that clip, I wonder if Irma's push to the west has influenced Jose's future track at all?

[clipper35]

That was the morning run, now looks like trof will pick him up and scoot him out
to sea. 12z run starts to show that,ecmwf and gfs.

[tolakram]

12z UKmet showing a loop.

[CrazyC83]

The trough would also be the remnants of Irma...how it behaves after landfall might play a big role.

[Kazmit]

A lot of ensemble models showing a cyclonic loop now.