ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

these west shifts in the models every cycle the last 24-36 hours is very reminiscent of Matthew. Seems like every run they keep shifting west even though we are within 48 and sometimes even 24 hours. When will these west shifts stop? Now watch the Euro shift east some.

1:45 runtime correct?

Yep

[SFLcane]

Watch Irma go into the gulf if the west shifts continue.

[tolakram]

12z HWRF landfall

[NFLnut]

If the current run of the GFS is to be believed then it would have Irma as a 940 CAT3 near/south of Orlando. I'll let someone much more wise than me chime in!

The GFS isn't to be believed. Certainly not with intensity. It's moderately close with direction only.

[gatorcane]

Even if the storm tracks up through SW Florida ala latest GFS, the SE FL is going to be getting hit hard:

[PTPatrick]

It's getting to be wobble watch for with respect to Cuba and whether ukmet might verify....euro is really technically offshore, but could be called a landfall on a few Cuban islands... If you look at current satellite animation, its gained around half a degree of latitude in 6 hrs and 2 degree longitude. (.25 lat per long) To stay off Cuba it need only Gain .2 per 1 longitude. So it current trajectory holds, it will stay just offshore. A wobble could make all the difference.

If it reaches 22.5 by 77 It should probably stay more offshore.

Well it's almost to 76 but it's hugging 22. Seems like it almost went west since as it's barely gained any latitude around 75...having said that, ukmet is now barely a Cuba scrape anyway. I think west/sw eyeball could scrape the north coast. But these things like to avoid land. And hard to say with such a huge storm if it would have much effect.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Looks like a very slight shift east with the 12Z GFS ensemble mean and also more tightly clustered over Southern Florida:

[SouthDadeFish]

The 12Z GEFS ensemble mean did shift a touch east. Everyone in the cone is still very much in play for direct impacts from Irma's eyewall. Please don't let your guard down.

[facemane]

Will palm beach county be spared now with the west shift of the models?

no this storm is almost 3 times the width of the state of Florida

The WC reported Palm Beach county can expect 100 Mph winds and up to 14 inches of rain on the current NHC track.

[Maineman]

Still a lot of uncertainty, 14 inches not supported by leading models. ECMWF spaghetti for Boca Raton, mouseover to get to 10 days

Wind

https://weather.us/forecast/4148411-boca-raton/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

Rain

https://weather.us/forecast/4148411-boc ... cipitation

[shah83]

One thing I'm really interested in, is predicting the northward turn. Most hurricanes I'm familiar with turn north earlier than expected at the 48 hour mark, like Ike, Ivan, Katrina, etc... Wonder about the westward trend, and the sort of evidence we have of increasingly good modeling.

[northjaxpro]

The 12Z GEFS ensemble mean did shift a touch east. Everyone in the cone is still very much in play for direct impacts from Irma's eyewall. Please don't let your guard down.

100% agreement. Now is not the time at all to let your guard down people!! This monster is still going to impact the entire peninsula.

[ava_ati]

these west shifts in the models every cycle the last 24-36 hours is very reminiscent of Matthew. Seems like every run they keep shifting west even though we are within 48 and sometimes even 24 hours. When will these west shifts stop? Now watch the Euro shift east some.

I honestly don't think the models will lock in until this thing is heading NNW, in fact I think it is entering the most unpredictable part of it's life at this point, it is slowing down, turning, interacting with land masses, interacting with air masses all over the place, at this point I EXPECT shifts just about every run, just hopefully not huge ones. I mean the cone of concern was just about all of Florida, hopefully people took it seriously even if they were near the edges.

[marciacubed]

Can someone please post the euro. I don't know how to find it. Did it shift west? Thanks

[LCfromFL]

Just wanted to let you know that we have added worldwide ECMWF Ens spaghetti for every place in the world. Loading time will be fast next week, a bit longer today, but we wanted to go online because of Irma. Enjoy best with mouseover.

https://weather.us/forecast/4164138-miami/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

Really cool, Maineman! Thank you for posting!

[jdjaguar]

Can someone please post the euro. I don't know how to find it. Did it shift west? Thanks

It is currently running

You can see updates on tropical tidbits

Or wait. Moderators are excellent about posting the runs on this thread

[MrJames]

[tolakram]

Looks like it will come extremely close if not hit Cuba this run.

[Maineman]

Not there yet, 12z output should start any minute, will be seen here, parameter choice via menu, time zone/units via gear icon. Click to zoom in.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/sea-level-pressure/20170908-1800z.html