ATL: IRMA - Models

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Frank P
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9561 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:55 pm

looks like a shift south and west...center appears somewhat overland @24
Last edited by Frank P on Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9562 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:55 pm

It looks like the center makes landfall in Cuba or is right on the coast. This is more west than the NHC track.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9563 Postby MrJames » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:56 pm

SW shift
Image

NOTE: This is a 12z to 12z trend
Last edited by MrJames on Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9564 Postby tallywx » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:57 pm

Euro has this eating a lot of dirt in Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9565 Postby Maineman » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:57 pm

Now incoming

Most recent ECMWF 12z for now, being constantly updated

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/815-w-213-n/sea-level-pressure/20170909-0900z.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9566 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:58 pm

The Euro ensembles that went over Cuba were further west into Florida or were off the peninsula into Tampa or Big Bend area of panhandle. This could save the peninsula or be devastating for Tampa.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9567 Postby Raebie » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:58 pm

Big jump south there from 24 to 48. Why?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9568 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 08, 2017 12:58 pm

Wonder if the new sampling by the NOAA jet is causing this. Stronger ridge?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9569 Postby Jevo » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:00 pm

12z Euro...... I'm a bit suspect with that jump into Cuba... Lets see how this plays out... I don't dare doubt king Euro, but we'll see
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9570 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:01 pm

Well ...

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9571 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:01 pm

Yet another west shift by the Euro...west shifts don't seem to have stopped
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9572 Postby tallywx » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:02 pm

One thing to be wary of is that some land interaction can help tighten up the inner core. We've seen a few storms ramp up extremely quickly after re-entering after Cuba (Charley, Dennis).
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9573 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:02 pm

tolakram wrote:Well ...

Image


Tampa bound? Gulp :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9574 Postby jdjaguar » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:02 pm

Shift west at 048. Closer to key west than marathon
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9575 Postby PandaCitrus » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:02 pm

This Euro is going to freak the NHC forecasters out. If it rides up southwest coast to Tampa, the surge will be incredible and people have not evacuated and are not expecting this at all.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9576 Postby ColdMiser123 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:02 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9577 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:02 pm

I said it yesterday, and encouraged everyone to view the Matthew archive. It's still in the cone, so these seemingly crazy shifts are not that crazy.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9578 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:03 pm

looks like the west coast rider is now in play per the Euro... does show it strengthening after leaving Cuba in the FL straits...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9579 Postby jdjaguar » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:03 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:This Euro is going to freak the NHC forecasters out. If it rides up southwest coast to Tampa, the surge will be incredible and people have not evacuated and are not expecting this at all.

Tampa and Sarasota zone a already under mandatory evacuation
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9580 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:04 pm

Wow, Euro west... I know it's within the cone, but this has not been a good forecast from a day ago and I bet NHC's folks would be disappointed in their forecast... Huge difference from a day ago...
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