ATL: IRMA - Models

[tallywx]

First landfall Big Pine Key/Stock Island. Wow, that's west.

[Raebie]

Right over the Keys again. Poor deer.

[RL3AO]

This Euro is going to freak the NHC forecasters out. If it rides up southwest coast to Tampa, the surge will be incredible and people have not evacuated and are not expecting this at all.

Tampa is under a hurricane and storm surge watch. Tampa has issued mandatory evacuations. Please don't spread false info.

[tallywx]

Euro showing RI between Big Pine Key and second landfall (Everglades City? Naples?)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

WE'RE WAITING FOR THOSE NEXT POINTS EURO. UGH

[stormhunter7]

Key West will not survive that kind of direct hit... its too low of a land mass/island.

[tolakram]

But the NAM went EAST!!!!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Would also get more time over the hot waters of the Gulf in that scenario... not good!

[Eastcoaster]

This Euro is going to freak the NHC forecasters out. If it rides up southwest coast to Tampa, the surge will be incredible and people have not evacuated and are not expecting this at all.

Tampa is under a hurricane and storm surge watch. Tampa has issued mandatory evacuations. Please don't spread false info.

While wearing are under a mandatory zone A evacuation order I can tell you majority of people I've spoken to have not evacuated and are not planning on.

[NDG]

Poor Key West and SW FL!!!!!!!!!!

[tarheelprogrammer]

Would also get more time over the hot waters of the Gulf in that scenario... not good!

What is the upper level environment like in that area on the ECMWF?

[Frank P]

then moves just west of Jacksonville and then right over Atlanta... west coast of FL ... not looking good at all with this run... still re-strengthens after going inland in Cuba... from ~955 to 927

[Bolebuns]

Key West will not survive that kind of direct hit... its too low of a land mass/island.

This is what I was wondering...that if those models over the keys are accurate, would this storm have the ability to literally wipe out the land mass of the Keys...not just the buildings.

[Raebie]

My daughter was in Big Key Pine in June and fell in love with the deer. She has pictures of them eating a cracker she was holding in her mouth.

I don't think I'm going to tell her about this run.

[SFLcane]

would keep the core away from metro areas of SFL..

[Jevo]

Wonder if the new sampling by the NOAA jet is causing this. Stronger ridge?

It looks like Gonzo is up now.. It should make it into 0z

[PandaCitrus]

Tampa is under a hurricane and storm surge watch. Tampa has issued mandatory evacuations. Please don't spread false info.

Tampa is not forecast to have 10+ feet of storm surge or more that would result in a direct hit. People are thinking Miami and not this scenario.

[bamajammer4eva]

This is concerning!! The Euro does not need to shift any more West. Some people evacuated west as they were told to thinking they are safe and just last night TWC said Tallahassee area west was where to go if you dont want any wind at all. This looks like Tampa but any more shifts West and it's going to affect evacuees in addition to the residents

[PTPatrick]

This Euro is going to freak the NHC forecasters out. If it rides up southwest coast to Tampa, the surge will be incredible and people have not evacuated and are not expecting this at all.

Good news is Tampa is further north so if they have to pull the trigger they can still...but this is why the cone matters

[tolakram]

Tampa is under a hurricane and storm surge watch. Tampa has issued mandatory evacuations. Please don't spread false info.

Tampa is not forecast to have 10+ feet of storm surge or more that would result in a direct hit. People are thinking Miami and not this scenario.

Well you are surprised anyway, but those paying attention would have understood that the west track was possible due to the error cone.