ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Palmcitycane]

If Irma follows the path laid out by the latest run of the Euro, will wind speeds in the Treasure Coast be similar strength to Matthew last year? Different direction of course.

[mspencer]

Per Collier County OEM new conference 9/8 2PM

Mandatory Evacuations ordered for Collier County residents living West and South of Route US 41.
They caution Mandatory evacuation orders may expand. The NHC has informed them that they are growing concerned about storm surge.
All emergency services will cease when wind speed exceeds 40 mph.
A curfew will be implemented following the storm.
The shelters in Collier County are rapidly reaching capacity. Collier County is working to open additional shelters.
Collier County Shelter Locations:

http://www.colliergov.net/home/showdocument?id=64880

[SunnyThoughts]

Gov. Scott saying if those under mandatory evacuation do not leave by midnight, do not get on the road.

[wxmann_91]

Is everyone completely convinced of a Cuba landfall? People have pointed out the westerly direction as of late, but I've noticed a more WNW movement in the last few frames.

Also - people have been mentioning dry air from the mountains of hispanola and Cuba interfering with Irma's re-strengthening efforts. I haven't noticed any effect of dry air on the core though, so how convincing is this explanation really?

People often throw around the term "dry air" as the cause anytime a storm weakens or doesn't look as good as it once did when oftentimes there are other processes that cause the weakening or ragged appearance. I think Irma is just recovering from the EWRC and as soon as the inner eye fully gives up this will start looking really impressive. Cuba will probably have minimal effects as the eye is so large most of it would still be over water, and in some case, the frictional effects of land can help tighten up an eye after an EWRC.

I agree that the term "dry air" is overused but in this case it is likely that downsloping off the Hispaniola and Cuban mountains have had a detrimental effect on Irma. That said, I do agree that land interaction can help retighten the core. Lots to see what will happen.

[JBCycloneStan]

Is everyone completely convinced of a Cuba landfall? People have pointed out the westerly direction as of late, but I've noticed a more WNW movement in the last few frames.

Also - people have been mentioning dry air from the mountains of hispanola and Cuba interfering with Irma's re-strengthening efforts. I haven't noticed any effect of dry air on the core though, so how convincing is this explanation really?

People often throw around the term "dry air" as the cause anytime a storm weakens or doesn't look as good as it once did when oftentimes there are other processes that cause the weakening or ragged appearance. I think Irma is just recovering from the EWRC and as soon as the inner eye fully gives up this will start looking really impressive. Cuba will probably have minimal effects as the eye is so large most of it would still be over water, and in some case, the frictional effects of land can help tighten up an eye after an EWRC.

Fascinating! Thanks for your input.

[Sanibel]

I'm in a good mood...I just got the last sheltered spot in the concrete raised parking garage at Regional Southwest Airport...There's a reinforced concrete wall in front of the car...I rode my bicycle back and it took me 2 hours...


I'm mostly ready here at the house and just have to make sure I do my final preparations and lower the electric shutters etc...BIG weight off my mind...


No traffic...Roads are empty except some scurry'ers and paid movers doing last second removals...


My uncle just shot up I-75 to Tampa in normal fast traffic...


Steady wind from east...Weird disturbed clouds...Black butterflies all over the place...Terns were flocking on the causeway and whistling...Sanibel Chevron closed but pumps had "Self Serve" sign up...

[NDG]

Remember TS Fay in '08, if the latest Euro is correct Irma could come in the same way Fay did, she never weakened coming across the flat swampy area SW of Lake Okeechobee, if anything she almost became a hurricane while she was on land.

https://youtu.be/a_04VkWnbn8

[HurricaneFrances04]

The Cuba radars are almost unwatchable with their slow frame rate. Anyone have a link with sliders, or at least a faster frame rate?

[AutoPenalti]

Made it to Virginia, we are pretty far up and we're headed towards New York right now, traffic is as usual, light to moderate on some occasions but we are pretty okay.

[boomstyk]

Can someone help me understand what is keeping this out of the gulf. I understand that there is a high pressure system that is breaking down and a short wave helping pull Irma up. I'm not hoping this thing will go into the gulf but wondering if there are other factors that make a trip past FL into the gulf non-conducive for her track.

A map describing what is going on would be awesome. Thanks Boys and Girls.

Putting a big heaping protective vibe over FL for the weekend... Best of luck to all involved!

[BYG Jacob]

The Cuba radars are almost unwatchable with their slow frame rate. Anyone have a link with sliders, or at least a faster frame rate?

I can't seem to find anything, and when I try to look at radar Irma doesn't even show up on the sites I tried.

[CryHavoc]

I'd really like to see anyone who calls for this storm to weaken below Cat 3 (or even below Cat 4) list their specific scientific criteria for why they think it's going to do so.

Hurricanes do not have to follow weakening or strengthening "trends". They can go from looking pretty rough and disheveled to powering up and presenting much healthier in the space of a day or even a few hours in the right environment.

If you have sincere reasoning and confidence in continued weakening, please list it for the edification of everyone reading the board. ALL indications right now are for a major hurricane to impact the coast. It has a chance to be anywhere from cat 3 to cat 5 right now. Below that seems pretty unlikely but I'm sure our pro mets here would be happy to discuss the possibility if it was scientifically backed.

[Raebie]

I'm in a good mood...I just got the last sheltered spot in the concrete raised parking garage at Regional Southwest Airport...There's a reinforced concrete wall in front of the car...I rode my bicycle back and it took me 2 hours...


I'm mostly ready here at the house and just have to make sure I do my final preparations and lower the electric shutters etc...BIG weight off my mind...


No traffic...Roads are empty except some scurry'ers and paid movers doing last second removals...


My uncle just shot up I-75 to Tampa in normal fast traffic...


Steady wind from east...Weird disturbed clouds...Black butterflies all over the place...Terns were flocking on the causeway and whistling...Sanibel Chevron closed but pumps had "Self Serve" sign up...

I assume you're located on Sanibel Island?

[fci]

In my personal opinion I am starting to think that Irma will be a moderate wind event in SE.Fla(45-75mph). Seems to me the models are locked onto a landfall in the Keys and then Everglades City.

I agree. That's a pretty huge shift, from major hurricane winds yesterday to weak TS winds today. I had a feeling it wasn't going to be that bad here.

Here is the current Hurricane Local Statement from the NWS Miami to back up my personal opinion.

Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Miami FL AL112017
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068-082345-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach-
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Boca West
- Palm Springs
- Florida Gardens
- Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning
until Monday morning
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ068&warncounty=FLC099&firewxzone=FLZ068&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NE%20West%20Palm%20Beach%20FL&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=26.7477&lon=-80.1262#.WbLPYdEpDxw

At the risk of getting my hand slapped by The Hard Working Mods here at S2K, I have to ask the question:
What is the purpose of your post?
To validate YOUR prediction?
Is there a satisfaction your gleam from your guess???
We are all under Hurricane Warning and people are preparing for a possibly horrible event.
So why go boast that your GUESS might be correct?
Is now the time to play "Look how smart I am"?
I do not see Pro Met next to your name.
So, are you smarter than they are?
Because they are all saying that this could be bad. Or maybe not.
If they don't know, then why are you boasting that your guess might be correct.

I'm off my soap box and Mods, PLEASE DO NOT SUSPEND ME!!!!!!!

[northjaxpro]

Remember TS Fay in '08, if the latest Euro is correct Irma could come in the same way Fay did, she never weakened coming across the flat swampy area SW of Lake Okeechobee, if anything she almost became a hurricane while she was on land.

https://youtu.be/a_04VkWnbn8

Yes sir indeed never forget Fey Fay I thought became a hurricane and they never upgraded it I'll never be convinced otherwise that they wasn't a hurricane it strengthened right over the Everglades so that you point it out in NDG and dumped all that rain on my house.16 inches worth but anyway that is an excellent observation NDG and if Irma comes across the Everglades, which is very possible now based on the latest Euro run, it may not weaken at all as it comes up the southern Peninsula very interesting 12Z EURO run for sure!

[northjaxpro]

Remember TS Fay in '08, if the latest Euro is correct Irma could come in the same way Fay did, she never weakened coming across the flat swampy area SW of Lake Okeechobee, if anything she almost became a hurricane while she was on land.

https://youtu.be/a_04VkWnbn8

Yes sir indeed never forget Fay Fay I thought became a hurricane and they never upgraded it I'll never be convinced otherwise that Fay wasn't a hurricane . It strengthened right over the Everglades so that you point it out in NDG and dumped all that rain on my house.16 inches worth but anyway that is an excellent observation NDG and if Irma comes across the Everglades, which is very possible now based on the latest Euro run, it may not weaken at all as it comes up the southern Peninsula very interesting 12Z EURO run for sure!

[BYG Jacob]

Can someone help me understand what is keeping this out of the gulf. I understand that there is a high pressure system that is breaking down and a short wave helping pull Irma up. I'm not hoping this thing will go into the gulf but wondering if there are other factors that make a trip past FL into the gulf non-conducive for her track.

A map describing what is going on would be awesome. Thanks Boys and Girls.

Putting a big heaping protective vibe over FL for the weekend... Best of luck to all involved!

A trough is supposed to dig down over the Southeast and pull Irma north.

[tolakram]

The Cuba radars are almost unwatchable with their slow frame rate. Anyone have a link with sliders, or at least a faster frame rate?

I can't seem to find anything, and when I try to look at radar Irma doesn't even show up on the sites I tried.

You and a million others. Just keep reloading is what I do.

[Sanibel]

I assume you're located on Sanibel Island?

Yes: I think I'm in it deep...

[tolakram]

Here is the current Hurricane Local Statement from the NWS Miami to back up my personal opinion.

Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Miami FL AL112017
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068-082345-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach-
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Boca West
- Palm Springs
- Florida Gardens
- Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning
until Monday morning
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ068&warncounty=FLC099&firewxzone=FLZ068&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NE%20West%20Palm%20Beach%20FL&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=26.7477&lon=-80.1262#.WbLPYdEpDxw

At the risk of getting my hand slapped by The Hard Working Mods here at S2K, I have to ask the question:
What is the purpose of your post?
To validate YOUR prediction?
Is there a satisfaction your gleam from your guess???
We are all under Hurricane Warning and people are preparing for a possibly horrible event.
So why go boast that your GUESS might be correct?
Is now the time to play "Look how smart I am"?
I do not see Pro Met next to your name.
So, are you smarter than they are?
Because they are all saying that this could be bad. Or maybe not.
If they don't know, then why are you boasting that your guess might be correct.

I'm off my soap box and Mods, PLEASE DO NOT SUSPEND ME!!!!!!!

He has an opinion and he backed it up with reasoning. You and I don't have to like it, but there's nothing horribly wrong about it. My issue with these kinds of posts is if it draws others in to follow his lead and he ends up wrong.

Here's the latest Euro wind gust map at current euro predicted landfall. Certainly the winds aren't going to blow anyone away if they are a decent distance from the eye, but the debris field might be so extensive getting supplies will be difficult for weeks. I still remember the Wilma news videos with people complaining they couldn't find water, why wasn't anyone helping.

But hey, many haven't experienced a big storm like this for a long time so go for it, I will hope for the best. It might not be so bad, it might be horrible.

And of course, this assumes the forecast point is set in stone and no wobbles.