ATL: IRMA - Models

[Maineman]

What about the wins and Tampa Bay I couldn't find that

Where? What?

[NDG]

Euro is now the West outlier by a smidge against the latest round of fresh 12z pasta

https://i.imgur.com/ccxc1JR.png

If anything the spaghetti models have been the East outliers all along.

[fci]

Watch Irma go into the gulf if the west shifts continue.

Which is where it was forecast to go 2-3 days ago. Ironic that the NHC track was further west than most models and she ultimately might go right there.

[BucMan2]

What about the wins and Tampa Bay I couldn't find that

[tolakram]

Gusts: https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 1400z.html

[Jevo]

Euro is now the West outlier by a smidge against the latest round of fresh 12z pasta

https://i.imgur.com/ccxc1JR.png

If anything the spaghetti models have been the East outliers all along.

Now the big question is, have they been wrong? Seems everything has jumped around a bit.. Euro was over Fort Lauderdale 36 hours ago. Verification on these runs is going to be fun.. the best oart about this is that we have Nooooo clue until she decides to make her turn... where that falls on model plot point is going to tell the entire story... hehe they all could be wrong right now

[Jevo]

Euro is now the West outlier by a smidge against the latest round of fresh 12z pasta

https://i.imgur.com/ccxc1JR.png

If anything the spaghetti models have been the East outliers all along.

Now the big question is, have they been wrong? Seems everything has jumped around a bit.. Euro was over Fort Lauderdale 36 hours ago. Verification on these runs is going to be fun.. the best part about this is that we have Nooooo clue until she decides to make her turn... where that falls on model plot point is going to tell the entire story... hehe they all could be wrong right now

[Maineman]

Gusts: https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 1400z.html

Yes, this is when you don't choose the custom map, but the state map. From there you can go into every county.

[Zarniwoop]

If anything the spaghetti models have been the East outliers all along.

Now the big question is, have they been wrong? Seems everything has jumped around a bit.. Euro was over Fort Lauderdale 36 hours ago. Verification on these runs is going to be fun.. the best part about this is that we have Nooooo clue until she decides to make her turn... where that falls on model plot point is going to tell the entire story... hehe they all could be wrong right now

And get ready for all the second guessing by John Q. Public.

[northjaxpro]

NDG it looks like Irma's inner core is going to.move very near or right over Orlando, axcording to the 12Z EURO. Not good my friend. Not good for everyone in the state for that matter if EURO verifies.

[BucMan2]

Thank you Mark!!

[crownweather]

Gusts: https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 1400z.html

Yes, this is when you don't choose the custom map, but the state map. From there you can go into every county.

Is there a way to loop the maps Jack? I've looked around the site, but couldn't find an option.

[fci]

The 12Z GEFS ensemble mean did shift a touch east. Everyone in the cone is still very much in play for direct impacts from Irma's eyewall. Please don't let your guard down.

100% agreement. Now is not the time at all to let your guard down people!! This monster is still going to impact the entire peninsula.

If people in the Metro SE Florida area have not yet boarded up, prepped supplies and aren't in hunker-down mode; then they are ignorant.
We were ready for Matthew which was a big threat and fizzled out and we are ready for Irma who, hopefully will do the same.
I DON'T CARE.
You just don't mess around with strong Hurricanes.
Prepare and be happy when it was all for naught because the one time you become complacent and think it is "crying wolf" you are going to get hurt.
It's not worth it.
That being said, I didn't have shutters put up until there was a Hurricane Watch, unlike many who were putting up shutters on Tuesday.
Listen to the National Hurricane Center. Not your co-workers, rumors....... Trust the Pros here on S2K, not the wannabes.....
Be smart and protect you and your family.

[Zarniwoop]

Gusts: https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 1400z.html

Image Removed to save space.


Yes, this is when you don't choose the custom map, but the state map. From there you can go into every county.

Is there a way to loop the maps Jack? I've looked around the site, but couldn't find an option.

125 mph winds in Miami with landfall on the other side of the state is staggering.

[tolakram]

Thank you Mark!!

I posted the wrong model, correct chart. working on it.

[NDG]

NDG it looks like Irma's inner core is going to.move very near or right over Orlando, axcording to the 12Z EURO. Not good my friend. Not good for everyone in the state for that matter if EURO verifies.

And to make it worst it will be expanding so it will be covering a larger area over central and northern FL, that's why is showing those 100+ mph wind gusts along the NE coast of FL.

[weatherwindow]

Right over the Keys again. Poor deer.

Good afternoon, interestingly key deer have evolved remarkable aquatic skill and are skilled swimmers...That was an evolutionary response to storm inundation...Godspeed to my neighbors on BPK who are riding it out...Rich

[tolakram]

12z EU gusts



Use the left and right arrows next to Valid for to change timepoint.

[Maineman]

Gusts: https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 1400z.html

Yes, this is when you don't choose the custom map, but the state map. From there you can go into every county.

Is there a way to loop the maps Jack? I've looked around the site, but couldn't find an option.

Not yet. Content before wrapping until we are done. You can easily download and take a GIF program until then, please.

[Sanibel]

You get an instinct with these things and the west drift was the final shift...I think we're pretty close to a lock and this is probably close to the track...I'm going to be in a solid concrete structure close to the west eyewall...Pretty much suicidal to stay out here on Sanibel if it goes to a worst case scenario further west shift...


Nothing like Euro telling you your doom...

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