ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

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Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago
indicate that Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate, and the
winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure
was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at
about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the
next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of
Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma
should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin
to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida
peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and
that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact
track of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again
adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF
model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU
Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant
storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has
increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is
possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation.
Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and
property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from
local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night. The highest amounts are expected
over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma
will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.1N 76.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 35.0N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

[johngaltfla]

Good news...I bought a square-headed chuck at Bailey's and a neighbor helped me get up to the storm shutters on a ladder to get the covers off and we fixed the two jammed steel shutters...All the hurricane shutters work all the way around...Good, I'm going to need them...I'm feeling a little shot...Very, very good luck today...

Bailey's closed at 5pm...And will be closed until Irma passes...

Good for you Sanibel. GOOD luck to you!

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082059
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 10 20170908
204930 2243N 07806W 6951 03116 9984 +092 +082 036062 064 036 004 00
205000 2242N 07804W 6958 03103 9975 +097 +072 036064 064 034 005 00
205030 2242N 07802W 6956 03102 9966 +102 +062 035064 064 036 004 00
205100 2241N 07800W 6957 03099 9956 +108 +058 033065 065 037 003 00
205130 2240N 07758W 6960 03090 9958 +102 +071 033066 066 035 002 00
205200 2240N 07756W 6961 03086 9944 +110 +070 036067 067 036 002 00
205230 2239N 07754W 6968 03077 9949 +104 +066 042071 072 035 002 00
205300 2238N 07752W 6951 03090 9938 +108 +070 043074 075 037 004 00
205330 2238N 07751W 6967 03090 9938 +102 +078 042074 076 036 006 00
205400 2237N 07749W 6958 03090 9938 +102 +078 043079 079 037 007 00
205430 2237N 07747W 6962 03090 9938 +102 +091 043079 080 039 009 00
205500 2236N 07745W 6957 03090 9938 +101 +082 041081 082 040 008 00
205530 2235N 07744W 6955 03090 9938 +100 +095 040082 084 045 009 00
205600 2235N 07742W 6942 03090 9938 +101 //// 038079 082 048 010 01
205630 2234N 07740W 6948 03090 9938 +099 //// 038080 080 050 006 01
205700 2233N 07738W 6952 03090 9938 +105 +095 039080 081 051 004 00
205730 2233N 07736W 6950 03090 9938 +109 +085 041080 082 050 005 00
205800 2232N 07734W 6951 03090 9938 +105 +102 037075 076 049 006 00
205830 2231N 07733W 6952 03090 9938 +108 //// 036076 077 050 011 01
205900 2231N 07731W 6950 03090 9932 +108 //// 036079 081 051 009 01

[JtSmarts]

This is my first time watching John Morales, he is superb!

[Kat5]

Avila calling for a 5... Mr conservative...

[Extratropical94]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082059
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 10 20170908
204930 2243N 07806W 6951 03116 9984 +092 +082 036062 064 036 004 00
205000 2242N 07804W 6958 03103 9975 +097 +072 036064 064 034 005 00
205030 2242N 07802W 6956 03102 9966 +102 +062 035064 064 036 004 00
205100 2241N 07800W 6957 03099 9956 +108 +058 033065 065 037 003 00
205130 2240N 07758W 6960 03090 9958 +102 +071 033066 066 035 002 00
205200 2240N 07756W 6961 03086 9944 +110 +070 036067 067 036 002 00
205230 2239N 07754W 6968 03077 9949 +104 +066 042071 072 035 002 00
205300 2238N 07752W 6951 03090 9938 +108 +070 043074 075 037 004 00
205330 2238N 07751W 6967 03090 9938 +102 +078 042074 076 036 006 00
205400 2237N 07749W 6958 03090 9938 +102 +078 043079 079 037 007 00
205430 2237N 07747W 6962 03090 9938 +102 +091 043079 080 039 009 00
205500 2236N 07745W 6957 03090 9938 +101 +082 041081 082 040 008 00
205530 2235N 07744W 6955 03090 9938 +100 +095 040082 084 045 009 00
205600 2235N 07742W 6942 03090 9938 +101 //// 038079 082 048 010 01
205630 2234N 07740W 6948 03090 9938 +099 //// 038080 080 050 006 01
205700 2233N 07738W 6952 03090 9938 +105 +095 039080 081 051 004 00
205730 2233N 07736W 6950 03090 9938 +109 +085 041080 082 050 005 00
205800 2232N 07734W 6951 03090 9938 +105 +102 037075 076 049 006 00
205830 2231N 07733W 6952 03090 9938 +108 //// 036076 077 050 011 01
205900 2231N 07731W 6950 03090 9932 +108 //// 036079 081 051 009 01

Hopefully not an altimeter failure.

[Zarniwoop]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

Hoooo boy.

Did they really just predict 195 MPH gusts possible at landfall? Or do I not understand?

[ronyan]

I hope everyone in the keys has taken this storm seriously, I'm afraid earlier models and tracks may have caused people there to not prepare as they should.

[SkeetoBite]

[ozonepete]

Irma continues to chug along at a decent clip, moving just slightly North of due West paralleling the north coast of Cuba. I have to say it looks more and more that Irma will avoid landfall of Cuba and it also looks like there are no indications of Irma slowing down yet to make that long-anticipated turn to the north. iIt ooks like it is going to probably get right at or just past 80 degrees longitude and if that happens, the Southwest coast of Florida is going to be the landfall point for Irma once the turn finally happens.

And this truly will be an epic disaster.

Seriously.

At this point both northjax's posit for the track or the NHC track will prove to be horrific for most of Florida east and west, especially the southern half. Florida's west coast has so many beaches that will get creamed when the winds shift northwest. Still hard to get my head around the potential size of this disaster. We're pulling for you guys! Stay safe.

[stormreader]

Here is the current Hurricane Local Statement from the NWS Miami to back up my personal opinion.

Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Miami FL AL112017
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068-082345-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach-
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Boca West
- Palm Springs
- Florida Gardens
- Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning
until Monday morning
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ068&warncounty=FLC099&firewxzone=FLZ068&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NE%20West%20Palm%20Beach%20FL&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=26.7477&lon=-80.1262#.WbLPYdEpDxw

At the risk of getting my hand slapped by The Hard Working Mods here at S2K, I have to ask the question:
What is the purpose of your post?
To validate YOUR prediction?
Is there a satisfaction your gleam from your guess???
We are all under Hurricane Warning and people are preparing for a possibly horrible event.
So why go boast that your GUESS might be correct?
Is now the time to play "Look how smart I am"?
I do not see Pro Met next to your name.
So, are you smarter than they are?
Because they are all saying that this could be bad. Or maybe not.
If they don't know, then why are you boasting that your guess might be correct.

I'm off my soap box and Mods, PLEASE DO NOT SUSPEND ME!!!!!!!

He has an opinion and he backed it up with reasoning. You and I don't have to like it, but there's nothing horribly wrong about it. My issue with these kinds of posts is if it draws others in to follow his lead and he ends up wrong.

Here's the latest Euro wind gust map at current euro predicted landfall. Certainly the winds aren't going to blow anyone away if they are a decent distance from the eye, but the debris field might be so extensive getting supplies will be difficult for weeks. I still remember the Wilma news videos with people complaining they couldn't find water, why wasn't anyone helping.

But hey, many haven't experienced a big storm like this for a long time so go for it, I will hope for the best. It might not be so bad, it might be horrible.

And of course, this assumes the forecast point is set in stone and no wobbles.

Always figured it would be a little further west than most believed, judging from the high building in to the north that would not allow the escape route out to sea. Felt a little funny. Was calling the Fl Straits as a possible a week ago, and several days ago, when models were shifting east some, I called the name "Naples".

[crm6360]

EWRC is just about finished, probably all that is left now is for it to respond to intensification.

Been hearing that for over a day.

Exactly. How do we know when an ERC completes? You know it when you see it, especially with well-established hurricanes.

It's not there yet.

[caneseddy]

This is my first time watching John Morales, he is superb!

[JarrodB]

And outside of USN and USAF buildings down there, they are few and far between. NONE of the bars on Duval St. are up to this kind of storm, nor the B&B's.

I work at Schoonet Wharf, I doubt it will still be there if Key West gets the eyewall. I know of scores of people who stayed. Too late now to get out.

[Shell Mound]

This is my first time watching John Morales, he is superb!

He and Norcross (when he was down here) are the best. He will tell you how it is with no BS. He's pretty much pleading for anyone in the Keys still to get out and for SE Florida to not let the guard down since the models could shift back east as there has been no consistency (which poster Steve alluded to earlier). I want to see whether Gonzo's mission will change anything with the models

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906254486087376896



 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906254902653054978

[SkeetoBite]

Friends, there is important 5pm data coming out. Can you take the non-storm related chatter to the chat room? It's free and super quiet in there.

You can join the chat here: http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k

[jasons2k]

Always figured it would be a little further west than most believed, judging from the high building in to the north that would not allow the escape route out to sea. Felt a little funny. Was calling the Fl Straits as a possible a week ago, and several days ago, when models were shifting east some, I called the name "Naples".

Never count the chickens before they hatch. There is the potential this could go anywhere in the cone, and another correction east, tonight, is certainly possible.

[tolakram]

Always figured it would be a little further west than most believed, judging from the high building in to the north that would not allow the escape route out to sea. Felt a little funny. Was calling the Fl Straits as a possible a week ago, and several days ago, when models were shifting east some, I called the name "Naples".

It hasn't gone there yet, this is just a single model run with a west path. This is the second time you've pointed out you made the call, stop being silly, you don't win an award and instead just look foolish. This is not a contest, it's real life.

[stormreader]

Always figured it would be a little further west than most believed, judging from the high building in to the north that would not allow the escape route out to sea. Felt a little funny. Was calling the Fl Straits as a possible a week ago, and several days ago, when models were shifting east some, I called the name "Naples".

Never count the chickens before they hatch. There is the potential this could go anywhere in the cone, and another correction east, tonight, is certainly possible.

You are certainly right.

[KBBOCA]

current projections for power outages. Still huge impacts for pretty much the whole FL peninsula

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/906263436815945728