ATL: IRMA - Models

[miamijaaz]

ECMWF 12z Ensemble tracks are in

Irma

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... -irma.html

Jose

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/wirbels ... -jose.html

Click to zoom in, choose time steps in menu.

Nearly all the ensembles for Irma have her moving due west into the northern coast of Cuba with many into Cuba. But clearly that is not the case looking at Irma right now.

I noticed that too gator, but was afraid to say anything against the mighty Euro, for fear of getting struck by lighting!

Irma has gained some latitude in the last few hours or so as well. So I guess we'll see if the Euro actually starts to verify shortly.

[Maineman]

Sorry, picked wrong link for Euro/Jose

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090812-240-jose.html

[gatorcane]

I know it is the NAM but decent shift east:

[caneseddy]

Quick question and if it was answered previously, apologies.

Did the 12z run incorporate any data from Gonzo or is that coming later on tonight (18z or 00z)? Thanks

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM:

[Zarniwoop]

I know it is the NAM but decent shift east:

Image removed to save space[/img]

All hail king NAM?

/sarcasm

Edit: Mods please delete. My post adds nothing to the technical discussion.

[Maineman]

Significant wave action on Cuba's N coast (click for zoom, into edges for pan, choose other parameters or time steps via menu)

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/745-w-213-n/sign-wave-height-direction-ft/20170909-0000z.html

[Jevo]

Quick question and if it was answered previously, apologies.

Did the 12z run incorporate any data from Gonzo or is that coming later on tonight (18z or 00z)? Thanks

I believe I saw that gonzo was going up at 1730Z Roughly 1230EST... If that is the case I would assume that data is in the 0z

[CrazyC83]

12Z ECMWF turns the remnants of Irma into a trough that picks up Jose after a loop-de-loop.

[fci]

Any chance of a east shift of the track or is west and more west. We should be on better shape in Miami Fort Lauderdale Boca Raton west palm and Delray Beach now.

I agree!
The trend is usually our friend.
But the trends do seem to change.
Tuesday, NHC has storm hitting Lower Keys and west coast and I like trend.
Wednesday/Thursday trend to Metro East Coast, don't like trend
Today, moving back to West solution
Tomorrow?????

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM 48 hours:

[Ntxw]

Keep the short liners down please in this thread. We have a lot of traffic and if you are going to post include an image of the guidance you choose. If you have a question or comment/analysis feel free to but also keep it insightful. This thread is not a chat room for whether you like the runs or not. We need to keep it technical.

Posts may be deleted without warning that do not add much to the information from guidance.

[Michele B]

12Z ECMWF turns the remnants of Irma into a trough that picks up Jose after a loop-de-loop.

So she picks up her little bro on her way across the ocean and lifts him to the east with her - OTS???

[johngaltfla]

18Z NAM:

https://s26.postimg.org/5awp6aed5/nam_m ... watl_15.pn

Go NAM go!

However it's not good at this. I'm afraid I'm living out the Donna scenario and it is going to suck. Losing power for 7-10 days is horrible in Florida during September.

[Maineman]

The new 12z ECMWF spaghetti are in, example Miami with higher values in the upper percentiles, you can try any other place, other parameters via menu

https://weather.us/forecast/4164138-miami/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

[stormreader]

Ha I am from Mississippi but live out west now. I don't have a dog in the fight but lots of Miami friends so I've been watching. I have friends all over the state though. The last minute north/east turns I spoke of was mainly from the last 15 years old north gulf coast with lots of those storms but also watching storms on fl east coast

Yup, the old eastern fade as I refer to it. I'm struggling to think of a single northerly traveling storm that didn't fade east of forecast in the last 24 hours. [ETA - referring to the North Central Gulf Coast]

Gustav 2008. It actually landfell and went west. But I think that type of scenario is more likely earlier in the season than later. Other recent notable north Gulf hurricanes did - Ivan, Katrina and Rita. Ike sort of hooked a bit WNW before coming in and didn't hit the parabolic curve until it was inland.

Steve, I'm going to go way back here, in 1974 Carmen (a Cat 4) in central gulf, was approaching the central La coast. About this time of year, too. Forecast track said a sharp veer right over SE La and to the area south of New Orleans as landfall approached. Instead, took an extremely sharp veer allright, but west! It approached Morgan City, but then turned up towards Vermillion Bay and made landfall around Intracoastal City as a Cat 2, I think.

[CourierPR]

I agree!
The trend is usually our friend.
But the trends do seem to change.
Tuesday, NHC has storm hitting Lower Keys and west coast and I like trend.
Wednesday/Thursday trend to Metro East Coast, don't like trend
Today, moving back to West solution
Tomorrow?????[/quote]

Met. John Morales of NBC6 Miami just gave a very informative lecture about using the models in hurricane forecasting. He is not ready to say Southeast FL is off the hook. He said that there hasn't been enough consistency with the model runs. Tomorrow could see a shift back east.

[Kat5]

18z GFS is further south and west compared to the last run.
I wouldn't be surprised if it took it to the panhandle this run.

[SunnyThoughts]

913mb into the keys at hour 36

[Spoomsister]

18z GFS is further south and west compared to the last run.
I wouldn't be surprised if it took it to the panhandle this run.

Pictures or it didn't happen.