Shell Mound wrote:RL3AO wrote:SoupBone wrote:When's the last time the U.S. had a cat 5 landfall? Most weaken before they hit.
Andrew. Labor Day (Florida Keys) and Camille are the others.
It is important to note that none of those earlier landfalling Category-5 hurricanes even neared Irma's size. Camille was only marginally larger than Andrew at landfall, and the 1935 hurricane was more compact even than 2004's Charley. Irma is much more similar to 2004's Frances or 1999's Floyd, both of which were of similar size to Irma's while just east of the Bahamas. Of course, Irma is just as or even more intense than those two cyclones ever were. Given the recent completion of the eyewall replacement cycle, the radius of hurricane-force winds is likely to increase even further, especially once the pressure gradient weakens a bit as Irma's north-northwest turn commences. Hurricane-force winds could very well extend almost one hundred miles from the eye, and gale-force winds almost two hundred miles, by the time Irma crosses the middle to lower Keys. Accounting for the girth of the system, even a weaker solution, say, 120 to 125 knots (140 to 145 mph) in the Keys would bring tremendous storm-surge and wind-related effects over a very broad area, including high tides along both coasts of the mainland, well to the north of the Keys. At this point, the only thing that could result in a weaker strike is Cuba, and only marginally so. The chance of a Category-5 landfall on the Keys and Everglades National Park, and of a upper-end Category-4 impact to the Naples and Marco Island vicinities, is far greater than one would wish it to be.
Great point. All three were smallish. The most intense one (Labor Day 1935 Keys) was extremely small. This storm seems like it was transported out of the western Pacific for sustainability. Strength may be more like a couple of recent monsters from the Eastern Pacific which harmlessly moved out to sea.
hopefully our house makes it, we weren't told to evacuate.
