ATL: IRMA - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

Still showing. Sub 900 storm at 42. Brutal, but hopefully overdone as everyone has been predicting.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +48.. There's the hard right...

Euro and GFS are in the same camp... looks like we have consensus.....

All of Florida is going to have hurricane conditions if this verifies, especially the way the models portray the storm building right side heavy after the turn.....

That's a whole lotta people

[Jevo]

Double post.. please delete

[SunnyThoughts]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure isn't moving much between 42 and 54

[BIGWIND]

It appears that Irma has become slightly elliptical with a longer north/south axis perhaps indicating the beginning of the pull northward.

[Sanibel]

Could somebody post the 18z GFS run please?

[tolakram]

18z GFS. Exact (darn close) same landfall point as Euro and UKmet.

[Kat5]

18z GFS is further south and west compared to the last run.
I wouldn't be surprised if it took it to the panhandle this run.

Pictures or it didn't happen.

Refer to post #9733... and you're welcomed.

[tolakram]

12z UKie

[Blown Away]

GFS has trended slower and slower

[Evil Jeremy]

While the wind threat has gone down for SE FL, it still remains high. All of SE FL should still be receiving Cat 1 winds. It also seems the flood threat for SE FL has increased. With the storm moving more west, we get more of that dirty side moisture. The Keys, Naples, Fort Meyers, and Tampa are now poised for the worst of Irma. I hope everyone 100 miles west has finished their preparations. While things look a little better for SE FL today, as a whole this remains potentially the greatest disaster in state history.

[pgoss11]

GFS has trended slower and slower

I was thinking this same thing. Wondering if it changes any of dynamics further up the coast in Ga and SC. Will that left hook still happen later?

[stormreader]

18z GFS. Exact (darn close) same landfall point as Euro and UKmet.

Rolls along the barrier islands along the Cuban coast before landfall in SW Fl.

[FixySLN]

GFS has trended slower and slower

I was thinking this same thing. Wondering if it changes any of dynamics further up the coast in Ga and SC. Will that left hook still happen later?

If it wants to happen too late it might not happen due to the weakness on the east coast.

[stormreader]

You would think that the pressure falls are probably exaggerated. Should be. But the storm's history makes you wary.

[adam0983]

Will a slower forward speed cause hurricane Irma to go more east because it won't have time to go more west before the weakness in the ridge.

[KWT]

GFS still going for some pretty impressive deepening in the channel between Cuba and S.Florida, takes it down to 889mbs, so basically down to Labour Day storm territory.

Models have pretty much come into total agreement now, 480 pages later!

[floridasun78]

so we don't see sift to east? all afternoon models been to west?

[Yellowlab]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Scary track...don't like that track for Jose either