ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Are you getting a feel for a shift a bit east or is it becoming established that the westward movement has sealed the west movement from today to be firm?

My feel really doesn't count. The NWS NHC is what matters However given I do have an opinion on track..lol I am leaning dead center up the spine of FL...Stormgeo track similar...and yes slowing down due to reaching the end of the ridge...NW then N movement upcoming sooner rather than later..JMO..personally all of FL is about to be decimated and parts uninhabitable...JMHO..

That's my feeling, too, that the slower forward speed means the shift in direction is coming....sooner rather than later will mean more to the east.

Sorry - west side of the state here - and I'm rooting for a more eastern shift.

It also likely means intensification. FWIW, it's not going to just turn north as I know you know but probably not everyone does. It's going to be gradual within a small area. It's hooking WNW now, so it should go NW a bit before turning NNW or N finally at landfall.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082159
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 16 20170908
214930 2337N 07523W 6968 03136 0002 +117 +059 132066 067 /// /// 03
215000 2338N 07525W 6968 03134 9999 +118 +057 130068 069 /// /// 03
215030 2340N 07528W 6966 03137 9994 +123 +053 129068 069 /// /// 03
215100 2341N 07530W 6967 03136 0000 +118 +050 129067 067 /// /// 03
215130 2342N 07533W 6967 03136 0000 +118 +058 128068 069 042 001 00
215200 2343N 07536W 6968 03132 9995 +121 +051 127069 070 041 001 00
215230 2344N 07538W 6967 03134 9994 +123 +047 124070 070 042 001 00
215300 2345N 07541W 6966 03137 0000 +118 +050 123066 067 042 001 00
215330 2346N 07544W 6967 03136 0009 +110 +059 117061 061 042 001 00
215400 2347N 07546W 6966 03136 0011 +107 +066 113061 062 042 002 00
215430 2347N 07549W 6967 03134 0014 +104 +068 112063 063 043 002 00
215500 2348N 07552W 6966 03133 0016 +100 +071 109062 063 043 001 00
215530 2348N 07555W 6968 03130 0016 +099 +072 112065 067 042 001 00
215600 2349N 07558W 6967 03131 0012 +102 +070 109067 068 041 001 00
215630 2350N 07600W 6967 03130 0005 +107 +067 108067 068 041 001 00
215700 2350N 07603W 6967 03129 0003 +108 +065 108068 068 044 001 00
215730 2351N 07606W 6967 03129 0002 +109 +065 107069 069 044 001 03
215800 2351N 07609W 6967 03127 9999 +111 +066 107069 069 /// /// 03
215830 2351N 07612W 6967 03128 9998 +111 +065 106069 070 076 013 03
215900 2352N 07615W 6967 03128 9998 +111 +061 104069 070 075 003 03

[stormreader]

The movement of an intense, steady or deepening hurricane along the northern coast of Cuba is very reminiscent of Isidore's (2002) paralleling the northern Yucatán. In both cases, the land mass is too flat, at least in part, to effectively weaken a large and intense tropical cyclone, and in fact may help focus inflow into the eye, a phenomenon known as frictional convergence. Both Cuba and the Yucatán are effectively surrounded by water; though Cuba is an island and the Yucatán a peninsula, both are insulated from continental sources of dry air such as the Sonoran desert, so storms can intensify up until landfall or while interacting with either land mass. History shows this: the number of intensifiers up until Yucatán landfall—e.g., Janet 1955, Dean 2007—and the storied history of intense Cuban strikes such as in 1846, 1924, 1926, 1944, 1952, etc. (these are just the cases that strengthened up until landfall). Plus, the Yucatán is not mountainous at all, and Cuba's mountainous terrain is restricted to the eastern portion of the island, Oriente, while the central and western portions are quite flat, akin to a hillier, more tropical version of Florida. Finally, Irma is most likely to make landfall on the outer archipelago, the chain of islands just north of mainland Cuba. With access to the inflow from the Caribbean to the south, and a large, well-defined, vertically stacked circulation in place, the intense inner core of the cyclone should not suffer much, if at all, from interaction with the central and western portions of Cuba.

Very fine post!

[WeatherGuesser]

NWS KeyWest just retweeted this, so it obviously has their stamp of approval...

Better to post the text than the link so everyone can see it.

[tolakram]

A visible loop that usually loads (may have to try a few times if it times out). Speed it up for best view.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=23&lon=-76width=1400&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=50&quality=90

Zoomed out

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=23&lon=-76width=1400&height=800&zoom=4&type=Animation&numframes=50&quality=90

[MGC]

Looks like a close call for a Cuba landfall. Slowing usually meaning a turn...we shall see. My sister is staying in south Florida in Lorida near the Kissimmee River. Not a smart move on her part.....MGC

[tolakram]

NWS KeyWest just retweeted this, so it obviously has their stamp of approval...

Better to post the text than the link so everyone can see it.

https://twitter.com/StevenCejas/status/906271647426113537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fstorm2k.org%2Fphpbb2%2FEmbedTweet.html%23906271647426113537

Steven Cejas ✔ @StevenCejas
NHC: "It's not clear that it's a survivable situation for anybody that is still there in the Keys"
5:42 PM - Sep 8, 2017

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082210
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 09 20170908
213430 2750N 08606W 4099 07412 0402 -147 -191 261011 011 017 001 00
213500 2749N 08604W 4098 07415 0403 -146 -191 263010 011 018 000 00
213530 2747N 08602W 4098 07415 0403 -145 -190 263009 010 017 001 00
213600 2745N 08600W 4099 07413 0404 -145 -199 261008 009 015 001 00
213630 2744N 08557W 4098 07415 0404 -145 -197 269006 009 015 000 00
213700 2743N 08555W 4099 07413 0403 -145 -213 285004 005 015 000 00
213730 2741N 08552W 4100 07411 0403 -144 -205 276003 005 017 000 00
213800 2740N 08549W 4100 07413 0405 -145 -212 280003 003 017 000 00
213830 2739N 08547W 4098 07416 0405 -140 -209 293003 004 017 000 00
213900 2737N 08545W 4098 07416 0406 -139 -216 277004 005 017 000 00
213930 2736N 08542W 4101 07411 0406 -136 -211 271006 008 016 000 00
214000 2735N 08540W 4099 07416 0405 -138 -197 288005 006 016 000 00
214030 2733N 08537W 4098 07416 0405 -146 -183 279005 007 017 000 00
214100 2732N 08535W 4100 07413 0406 -143 -181 288009 010 015 001 00
214130 2731N 08532W 4098 07417 0406 -140 -167 310008 010 015 000 00
214200 2729N 08530W 4099 07417 0406 -140 -169 322009 010 016 000 00
214230 2728N 08527W 4098 07418 0406 -145 -175 316007 009 017 000 01
214300 2727N 08524W 4098 07417 0405 -143 -163 324006 007 017 000 00
214330 2725N 08522W 4101 07412 0405 -145 -153 322007 008 016 001 01
214400 2724N 08519W 4099 07416 0405 -145 -154 291009 010 018 000 01
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082211
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 10 20170908
214430 2722N 08517W 4099 07413 0404 -145 //// 272011 012 017 000 01
214500 2721N 08514W 4098 07414 0404 -148 //// 274010 012 016 000 01
214530 2720N 08512W 4098 07416 0405 -145 -150 269008 009 016 000 00
214600 2718N 08509W 4101 07412 0405 -147 -164 257013 015 016 001 00
214630 2717N 08507W 4097 07419 0405 -145 -176 245012 013 018 000 00
214700 2716N 08504W 4101 07411 0405 -145 -185 249013 013 017 000 00
214730 2714N 08502W 4098 07418 0405 -145 -181 256013 013 018 001 00
214800 2713N 08459W 4098 07418 0406 -143 -173 251010 012 018 001 00
214830 2711N 08457W 4100 07416 0406 -142 -192 273007 009 018 000 00
214900 2710N 08454W 4098 07418 0407 -143 -174 291008 008 016 001 00
214930 2709N 08451W 4100 07414 0407 -142 -172 287007 008 017 000 00
215000 2707N 08449W 4099 07416 0407 -138 -183 282010 011 018 000 00
215030 2706N 08446W 4099 07417 0407 -136 -199 280011 011 018 000 00
215100 2705N 08444W 4098 07419 0407 -140 -190 286009 011 018 000 00
215130 2703N 08441W 4099 07418 0407 -140 -191 284008 008 017 000 00
215200 2702N 08439W 4099 07417 0408 -143 -184 280009 010 017 000 00
215230 2700N 08436W 4098 07420 0408 -145 -189 280010 010 015 001 00
215300 2659N 08434W 4099 07418 0408 -144 -212 276009 009 018 000 00
215330 2658N 08431W 4100 07418 0409 -144 -223 280008 008 017 000 00
215400 2656N 08429W 4099 07419 0409 -140 -231 284007 008 017 001 00
$$
;

[fwbbreeze]

There is a wall if wind waiting for it just to its north.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[KBBOCA]

Speaking personally, as a total amateur, I think my current highest concern (in terms of major metro areas) is somewhat less for Miami tonight and much higher for Tampa - St. Pete

With Miami in the spotlight for days they seemed to take preps very seriously. The FL West Coast *seems* to have been less of a focus earlier in the week - at least nationally - and so I fear folks in Tampa may not have prepared and now may be near the bullseye. Hope I'm very wrong, both about Tampa being lax in preps, and also it being in the bullseye.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082209
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 17 20170908
215930 2352N 07618W 6967 03126 9997 +112 +056 104071 071 /// /// 03
220000 2352N 07621W 6967 03128 9995 +113 +062 102073 074 /// /// 03
220030 2353N 07624W 6966 03128 9998 +112 +059 101072 073 /// /// 03
220100 2353N 07626W 6962 03132 9995 +113 +059 100073 074 /// /// 03
220130 2354N 07630W 6967 03125 9997 +110 +061 100076 076 /// /// 03
220200 2354N 07633W 6966 03126 9992 +115 +055 100076 076 /// /// 03
220230 2354N 07636W 6965 03127 9991 +116 +052 100077 077 041 001 00
220300 2355N 07639W 6966 03125 9989 +118 +049 098077 078 042 001 00
220330 2355N 07642W 6963 03131 9993 +115 +049 097074 075 043 001 00
220400 2355N 07645W 6965 03127 0002 +105 +063 092071 072 043 002 00
220430 2355N 07648W 6968 03121 9999 +106 +061 091072 072 042 001 00
220500 2356N 07651W 6967 03123 0001 +105 +063 089071 072 042 001 00
220530 2356N 07654W 6966 03124 0001 +106 +065 088070 071 041 002 00
220600 2356N 07657W 6968 03124 9997 +110 +062 088070 071 040 002 00
220630 2356N 07700W 6968 03124 9995 +112 +058 087071 072 037 001 00
220700 2357N 07703W 6968 03125 9992 +114 +055 087072 072 038 001 03
220730 2355N 07705W 6967 03123 9992 +113 +054 085072 072 038 001 03
220800 2353N 07706W 6969 03118 9993 +110 +059 083073 074 037 001 00
220830 2351N 07706W 6967 03119 9995 +106 +061 083075 076 040 001 00
220900 2349N 07706W 6964 03119 9992 +105 +063 085078 079 038 002 00

[stormreader]

NWS KeyWest just retweeted this, so it obviously has their stamp of approval...

 https://twitter.com/StevenCejas/status/906271647426113537

Retweeted by the NWS. Remember the warning given to New Orleans residents before Katrina--seemed exaggerated---then the CAT 5 mother of all storm surges. Remember the forecast of 50 inches of rain in Texas---seemed unlikely--then large areas approached that with some getting that amount. You see this tweet. 155 mph hurricane with NHC saying possible 160 mph at landfall (might be conservative) for Irma. We've talked about Miami, but I think in many respects (because of the surge) a SW Fl hit is potentially much more deadly.

[KBBOCA]

NWS KeyWest just retweeted this, so it obviously has their stamp of approval...

Better to post the text than the link so everyone can see it.

Yes, good reminder. I'll try to do that with all tweets.

[tolakram]

There is a wall if wind waiting for it just to its north.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

In the perfect position and angle to help outflow, unfortunately. Most likely why strengthening is expected as it gets closer.

[leanne_uk]

Sorry to quote myself but I didn't get a response. I know this board is fast moving and especially under these circumstances.
My friend who is due to fly out to Orlando is literally sat contemplating whether or not to get on her flight.... any help would be amazing.
Thank you

I've got friends worried about their loved ones on holiday in Orlando who have not been given a flight out. They have very young children and are in a pure state if panic at what is to come.
I have a childhood friend who has just had their flight brought forward by 3 hours so they can get into Orlando before the airport closes.... she is currently sat in a hotel room in the UK not knowing whether to get on a flight and arrive less than a day before Irma hits or cancel her holiday and not risk it.
Can anyone give me any advice to pass onto the guys out there/flying out please.

Any help or advice at all will be so greatly appreciated.

[NDG]

So I went to Home Depot to Lake Mary after I was told that they had just received 198 generators, I got there a little over an hour after they had received it and they were all gone, incredible!

[KWT]

Yeah a close call as to whether it makes landfall but my guess is yes, just about it will make landfall. Probably won't stop it too much but may prevent strengthening for a short while.

GFS showing an exceptional set-up aloft under some very high heat content waters so IF it does just brush the north coast of Cuba then it certainly could make it as a 5.

Historic cane. so everyone stay safe please!

[tolakram]

Sorry to quote myself but I didn't get a response. I know this board is fast moving and especially under these circumstances.
My friend who is due to fly out to Orlando is literally sat contemplating whether or not to get on her flight.... any help would be amazing.
Thank you

I've got friends worried about their loved ones on holiday in Orlando who have not been given a flight out. They have very young children and are in a pure state if panic at what is to come.
I have a childhood friend who has just had their flight brought forward by 3 hours so they can get into Orlando before the airport closes.... she is currently sat in a hotel room in the UK not knowing whether to get on a flight and arrive less than a day before Irma hits or cancel her holiday and not risk it.
Can anyone give me any advice to pass onto the guys out there/flying out please.

Any help or advice at all will be so greatly appreciated.

CANCEL HOLIDAY, that's easy. You just don't know how bad Florida will be next week and I doubt she could fly in anyway.

As for the folks stuck, they should be ok in a good sheltered place, just make sure they have supplies or are in a designated shelter.

[Frank P]

geesh watching the vis sat loops right now I find hard to imagine how Irma can't impact Cuba... still waiting on any kind of turn indication... don't see it yet either.. sw eye wall pretty dang close too.. awesome to watch on sat...