ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Can I just say I am tired of irma. Just looking at the forecast and realizing we still have almost 2 more days before final landfall and she is officially worn me out. And I'm not even in Florida so I can't imagine how over her most of you guys are.
But all the more reason for people to stay woke. 48 hrs ago Cuba was In the cone but just starting to seem really feasible.
But all the more reason for people to stay woke. 48 hrs ago Cuba was In the cone but just starting to seem really feasible.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Steve wrote:Michele B wrote:ROCK wrote:
My feel really doesn't count. The NWS NHC is what matters However given I do have an opinion on track..lol I am leaning dead center up the spine of FL...Stormgeo track similar...and yes slowing down due to reaching the end of the ridge...NW then N movement upcoming sooner rather than later..JMO..personally all of FL is about to be decimated and parts uninhabitable...JMHO..
That's my feeling, too, that the slower forward speed means the shift in direction is coming....sooner rather than later will mean more to the east.
Sorry - west side of the state here - and I'm rooting for a more eastern shift.
It also likely means intensification. FWIW, it's not going to just turn north as I know you know but probably not everyone does. It's going to be gradual within a small area. It's hooking WNW now, so it should go NW a bit before turning NNW or N finally at landfall.
Yes. I've actually had people laugh at me and say, "How can a storm suddenly take a sharp right turn like that?? It's going to TX!" Apparently you cannot help them understand the wind currents that "steer" these things.
At the last advisory, I noticed it slowed a little - not appreciably, but every mph helps! When I saw it slowed 2 mph, I figured the slow-down was imminent, which meant it was starting to be influenced by the front that's going to lift it northward.
So, I figure the sooner it starts the curve, the more likely it could be on the east side of the cone, rather than the west side.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Shell Mound wrote:The movement of an intense, steady or deepening hurricane along the northern coast of Cuba is very reminiscent of Isidore's (2002) paralleling the northern Yucatán. In both cases, the land mass is too flat, at least in part, to effectively weaken a large and intense tropical cyclone, and in fact may help focus inflow into the eye, a phenomenon known as frictional convergence. Both Cuba and the Yucatán are effectively surrounded by water; though Cuba is an island and the Yucatán a peninsula, both are insulated from continental sources of dry air such as the Sonoran desert, so storms can intensify up until landfall or while interacting with either land mass. History shows this: the number of intensifiers up until Yucatán landfall—e.g., Janet 1955, Dean 2007—and the storied history of intense Cuban strikes such as in 1846, 1924, 1926, 1944, 1952, etc. (these are just the cases that strengthened up until landfall). Plus, the Yucatán is not mountainous at all, and Cuba's mountainous terrain is restricted to the eastern portion of the island, Oriente, while the central and western portions are quite flat, akin to a hillier, more tropical version of Florida. Finally, Irma is most likely to make landfall on the outer archipelago, the chain of islands just north of mainland Cuba. With access to the inflow from the Caribbean to the south, and a large, well-defined, vertically stacked circulation in place, the intense inner core of the cyclone should not suffer much, if at all, from interaction with the central and western portions of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)
000
URNT15 KNHC 082212
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 11 20170908
215430 2655N 08426W 4099 07419 0410 -140 -216 288007 007 016 000 00
215500 2653N 08424W 4098 07421 0409 -140 -216 290004 006 017 000 00
215530 2652N 08421W 4099 07418 0409 -140 -217 295005 005 018 000 00
215600 2651N 08419W 4099 07420 0410 -139 -220 297005 005 016 001 00
215630 2649N 08416W 4099 07418 0409 -138 -225 301006 007 018 000 00
215700 2648N 08414W 4101 07417 0409 -136 -248 313008 009 018 000 00
215730 2647N 08411W 4099 07419 0410 -139 -246 323009 009 016 001 00
215800 2645N 08409W 4099 07420 0410 -140 -236 325009 009 015 000 00
215830 2644N 08406W 4098 07421 0409 -140 -234 324010 010 015 001 00
215900 2643N 08404W 4099 07418 0409 -140 -232 319009 010 016 000 00
215930 2641N 08402W 4097 07424 0410 -145 -227 322006 008 016 001 00
220000 2639N 08359W 4099 07420 0410 -141 -225 338005 006 017 000 00
220030 2638N 08357W 4098 07424 0411 -140 -237 346004 006 016 000 00
220100 2636N 08355W 4099 07421 0412 -140 -220 018003 003 018 000 00
220130 2635N 08352W 4099 07423 0412 -140 -233 040003 003 017 000 00
220200 2633N 08350W 4099 07423 0412 -140 -245 045002 003 015 001 00
220230 2632N 08348W 4099 07420 0412 -140 -290 030002 003 018 000 00
220300 2630N 08345W 4098 07425 0412 -140 -259 027003 004 016 000 00
220330 2628N 08343W 4098 07424 0412 -140 -307 024004 004 017 000 00
220400 2627N 08341W 4098 07422 0412 -142 -325 034005 005 015 001 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 082212
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 11 20170908
215430 2655N 08426W 4099 07419 0410 -140 -216 288007 007 016 000 00
215500 2653N 08424W 4098 07421 0409 -140 -216 290004 006 017 000 00
215530 2652N 08421W 4099 07418 0409 -140 -217 295005 005 018 000 00
215600 2651N 08419W 4099 07420 0410 -139 -220 297005 005 016 001 00
215630 2649N 08416W 4099 07418 0409 -138 -225 301006 007 018 000 00
215700 2648N 08414W 4101 07417 0409 -136 -248 313008 009 018 000 00
215730 2647N 08411W 4099 07419 0410 -139 -246 323009 009 016 001 00
215800 2645N 08409W 4099 07420 0410 -140 -236 325009 009 015 000 00
215830 2644N 08406W 4098 07421 0409 -140 -234 324010 010 015 001 00
215900 2643N 08404W 4099 07418 0409 -140 -232 319009 010 016 000 00
215930 2641N 08402W 4097 07424 0410 -145 -227 322006 008 016 001 00
220000 2639N 08359W 4099 07420 0410 -141 -225 338005 006 017 000 00
220030 2638N 08357W 4098 07424 0411 -140 -237 346004 006 016 000 00
220100 2636N 08355W 4099 07421 0412 -140 -220 018003 003 018 000 00
220130 2635N 08352W 4099 07423 0412 -140 -233 040003 003 017 000 00
220200 2633N 08350W 4099 07423 0412 -140 -245 045002 003 015 001 00
220230 2632N 08348W 4099 07420 0412 -140 -290 030002 003 018 000 00
220300 2630N 08345W 4098 07425 0412 -140 -259 027003 004 016 000 00
220330 2628N 08343W 4098 07424 0412 -140 -307 024004 004 017 000 00
220400 2627N 08341W 4098 07422 0412 -142 -325 034005 005 015 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
KBBOCA wrote:Speaking personally, as a total amateur, I think my current highest concern (in terms of major metro areas) is somewhat less for Miami tonight and much higher for Tampa - St. Pete
With Miami in the spotlight for days they seemed to take preps very seriously. The FL West Coast *seems* to have been less of a focus earlier in the week - at least nationally - and so I fear folks in Tampa may not have prepared and now may be near the bullseye. Hope I'm very wrong, both about Tampa being lax in preps, and also it being in the bullseye.
I'm just north of Tampa, and from what I've seen and heard all week the area has NOT taken any of this lightly. We have been well informed and apprised of the potential western shift and Gov. Scott, local news, and our school districts have been vigilant in making sure everyone was armed with information and time to make important decisions.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
stormreader wrote:KBBOCA wrote:NWS KeyWest just retweeted this, so it obviously has their stamp of approval...
https://twitter.com/StevenCejas/status/906271647426113537
Retweeted by the NWS. Remember the warning given to New Orleans residents before Katrina--seemed exaggerated---then the CAT 5 mother of all storm surges. Remember the forecast of 50 inches of rain in Texas---seemed unlikely--then large areas approached that with some getting that amount. You see this tweet. 155 mph hurricane with NHC saying possible 160 mph at landfall (might be conservative) for Irma. We've talked about Miami, but I think in many respects (because of the surge) a SW Fl hit is potentially much more deadly.
IF there's a silver lining in the change in the track is the fact that the actual spot of landfall (not the Keys, but Everglades City area, 10,000 Islands), is less populated than South Miami....so probable less loss of life.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
leanne_uk wrote:Sorry to quote myself but I didn't get a response. I know this board is fast moving and especially under these circumstances.
My friend who is due to fly out to Orlando is literally sat contemplating whether or not to get on her flight.... any help would be amazing.
Thank youleanne_uk wrote:I've got friends worried about their loved ones on holiday in Orlando who have not been given a flight out. They have very young children and are in a pure state if panic at what is to come.
I have a childhood friend who has just had their flight brought forward by 3 hours so they can get into Orlando before the airport closes.... she is currently sat in a hotel room in the UK not knowing whether to get on a flight and arrive less than a day before Irma hits or cancel her holiday and not risk it.
Can anyone give me any advice to pass onto the guys out there/flying out please.
Any help or advice at all will be so greatly appreciated.
Unless the trip is absolutely critical (some medical procedure for a life threatening illness), I would suggest cancelling.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Current forecast Probability of Hurricane Force winds:
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906279551118057472
John MoralesVerified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 9m
With NHC's slight westward shift, the chance of hurricane conditions is highest in the #FLKeys & SW Florida.
Marathon 81%
Key West 64%
Naples 64%
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906279551118057472
John MoralesVerified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 9m
With NHC's slight westward shift, the chance of hurricane conditions is highest in the #FLKeys & SW Florida.
Marathon 81%
Key West 64%
Naples 64%
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Frank P wrote:
You see that little south bend upcoming in the Cuban coast. I think the storm will find its way into that little nook in the coastal waters, and from there launch itself toward the Fl coast.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
leanne_uk wrote:Sorry to quote myself but I didn't get a response. I know this board is fast moving and especially under these circumstances.
My friend who is due to fly out to Orlando is literally sat contemplating whether or not to get on her flight.... any help would be amazing.
Thank youleanne_uk wrote:I've got friends worried about their loved ones on holiday in Orlando who have not been given a flight out. They have very young children and are in a pure state if panic at what is to come.
I have a childhood friend who has just had their flight brought forward by 3 hours so they can get into Orlando before the airport closes.... she is currently sat in a hotel room in the UK not knowing whether to get on a flight and arrive less than a day before Irma hits or cancel her holiday and not risk it.
Can anyone give me any advice to pass onto the guys out there/flying out please.
Any help or advice at all will be so greatly appreciated.
Unless she enjoys the idea of being in a hot, humid climate with potentially no electricity or water/food for her holiday, I would cancel it. Seriously. I understand the disappointment of having to cancel a vacation, but flying into Florida right now would be really foolish, in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Mandatory evacuations of mobile homes and modular homes was just issued for Marion County. Residents of these structures urged to evacuate by 8 pm Saturday.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Another factor to consider is the well-established southerly (poleward) outflow jet to Irma's immediate north. As Irma turns north-northwestward, it will begin to encounter strong uplift as the upper-level trough axis dips southward toward the northeastern Gulf Coast. This trough is the key to Irma's turn, but it also plays another important role: serving to improve Irma's already excellent outflow. Since Irma is a large system, it will take time to weaken after moving inland over Southwest Florida, and the increase in shear as it progresses toward the trough axis should only gradually affect Irma's intensity. The reason: Irma is not only large and will get even larger as it nears Florida, but until it and the trough get too close for further strengthening (which will occur only after landfall), the trough will actually serve to give Irma the best outflow channel in its life just as the core clears Cuba and heads over the deepest warm pocket in the entire Atlantic basin, the Gulf Stream or Gulf Loop Current in the Straits of Florida, with up to 31°C sea surface temperature between the Bahamas and Southeast Florida. This is why I think Irma, unfortunately, may strengthen the most just as it clears Cuba and approaches the Keys. Everything will come together: loss of remnant interaction with Cuba and the larger Bahaman islands, allowing the core to tighten; perfect outflow; a deep warm anomaly in the Gulf Stream; very warm sea surface temperatures; and, of course, continuing low shear and ample moisture surrounding the central dense overcast. That is why the Hurricane Center's forecast for modest strengthening before landfall in the Keys makes sense. That is why the European model's consistent deepening up until landfall in the Keys makes sense.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/906273265181757441
Once the above goes away, Irma will be between the Bahamas and Cuba and nearing the Keys. Only then will the storm really take full advantage.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/906273265181757441
Once the above goes away, Irma will be between the Bahamas and Cuba and nearing the Keys. Only then will the storm really take full advantage.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Full8s wrote:I'm just north of Tampa, and from what I've seen and heard all week the area has NOT taken any of this lightly. We have been well informed and apprised of the potential western shift and Gov. Scott, local news, and our school districts have been vigilant in making sure everyone was armed with information and time to make important decisions.
GREAT TO HEAR!!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)
URNT15 KWBC 082219
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 18 20170908
220930 2347N 07706W 6969 03108 9983 +109 +058 085080 080 040 001 00
221000 2345N 07706W 6967 03108 9985 +105 +057 085079 080 039 001 00
221030 2343N 07706W 6964 03109 9984 +103 +059 083080 081 042 002 00
221100 2341N 07705W 6964 03104 9974 +107 +058 083079 080 044 001 00
221130 2339N 07705W 6961 03102 9966 +108 +054 086079 080 045 003 00
221200 2337N 07705W 6953 03108 9963 +108 +058 085080 081 044 002 00
221230 2335N 07705W 6967 03089 9960 +107 +067 086084 086 044 002 00
221300 2333N 07705W 6962 03093 9951 +113 +066 085084 085 048 002 00
221330 2331N 07704W 6967 03085 9947 +114 +066 083087 088 051 003 00
221400 2329N 07704W 6966 03082 9944 +113 +064 082087 088 052 003 00
221430 2327N 07704W 6956 03090 9939 +112 +067 081085 086 053 004 00
221500 2325N 07704W 6957 03083 9932 +112 +074 081083 084 055 006 00
221530 2323N 07704W 6970 03062 9928 +112 +075 080086 087 053 006 00
221600 2321N 07703W 6965 03068 9931 +107 +074 080088 088 052 007 00
221630 2319N 07703W 6956 03072 9921 +110 +070 080089 092 054 005 00
221700 2317N 07703W 6958 03062 9911 +111 +080 081085 089 055 007 00
221730 2315N 07703W 6957 03060 9911 +104 +103 084081 084 054 010 00
221800 2313N 07702W 6968 03039 9900 +108 //// 085082 083 055 006 01
221830 2311N 07702W 6956 03049 9888 +113 +105 083084 086 056 007 00
221900 2309N 07702W 6967 03032 9881 +115 +102 081086 087 058 005 00
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 18 20170908
220930 2347N 07706W 6969 03108 9983 +109 +058 085080 080 040 001 00
221000 2345N 07706W 6967 03108 9985 +105 +057 085079 080 039 001 00
221030 2343N 07706W 6964 03109 9984 +103 +059 083080 081 042 002 00
221100 2341N 07705W 6964 03104 9974 +107 +058 083079 080 044 001 00
221130 2339N 07705W 6961 03102 9966 +108 +054 086079 080 045 003 00
221200 2337N 07705W 6953 03108 9963 +108 +058 085080 081 044 002 00
221230 2335N 07705W 6967 03089 9960 +107 +067 086084 086 044 002 00
221300 2333N 07705W 6962 03093 9951 +113 +066 085084 085 048 002 00
221330 2331N 07704W 6967 03085 9947 +114 +066 083087 088 051 003 00
221400 2329N 07704W 6966 03082 9944 +113 +064 082087 088 052 003 00
221430 2327N 07704W 6956 03090 9939 +112 +067 081085 086 053 004 00
221500 2325N 07704W 6957 03083 9932 +112 +074 081083 084 055 006 00
221530 2323N 07704W 6970 03062 9928 +112 +075 080086 087 053 006 00
221600 2321N 07703W 6965 03068 9931 +107 +074 080088 088 052 007 00
221630 2319N 07703W 6956 03072 9921 +110 +070 080089 092 054 005 00
221700 2317N 07703W 6958 03062 9911 +111 +080 081085 089 055 007 00
221730 2315N 07703W 6957 03060 9911 +104 +103 084081 084 054 010 00
221800 2313N 07702W 6968 03039 9900 +108 //// 085082 083 055 006 01
221830 2311N 07702W 6956 03049 9888 +113 +105 083084 086 056 007 00
221900 2309N 07702W 6967 03032 9881 +115 +102 081086 087 058 005 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
MGC wrote:Looks like a close call for a Cuba landfall. Slowing usually meaning a turn...we shall see. My sister is staying in south Florida in Lorida near the Kissimmee River. Not a smart move on her part.....MGC
Ummm, that's not SOUTH Florida. South Florida is from Big O-> south...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
KBBOCA wrote:Speaking personally, as a total amateur, I think my current highest concern (in terms of major metro areas) is somewhat less for Miami tonight and much higher for Tampa - St. Pete
With Miami in the spotlight for days they seemed to take preps very seriously. The FL West Coast *seems* to have been less of a focus earlier in the week - at least nationally - and so I fear folks in Tampa may not have prepared and now may be near the bullseye. Hope I'm very wrong, both about Tampa being lax in preps, and also it being in the bullseye.
Marco Island to Cape Coral/Ft. Meyers and then Gasparilla Sound-Charlotte Harbor and Sarasota Bay. Tampa too, but it's farther up the line. Someone mentioned earlier that even a weakened storm that was a Cat 5 will carry tremendous surge. We've see it before. So besides obviously the Keys, for everyone from Marco Island to Naples to Ft. Meyers and Cape Coral to Sanibel Island and Captiva to Port Charlotte to Venice to Sarasota/Bradenton/Longboat Key and finally St. Pete Beach and Clearwater, they have to know that water will come in close to the coast and into the bays, inlets and rivers. If you're low and in that area, I'd probably get out if the NHC maintains the SW FL hit.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Like a slingshot?stormreader wrote:Frank P wrote:[i mg]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis-animated.gif[/img]
You see that little south bend upcoming in the Cuban coast. I think the storm will find its way into that little nook in the coastal waters, and from there launch itself toward the Fl coast.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion
Im not a fan of the slow down right now.... Usually signifies a start of a direction change. If that's the case it certainly would be early and would put the Florida spine run back in play.
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