ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8361 Postby Centralflamama » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:39 pm

NDG wrote:So I went to Home Depot to Lake Mary after I was told that they had just received 198 generators, I got there a little over an hour after they had received it and they were all gone, incredible!




We are trying to move some down here from one of our Warehouses up north, if we are successful I will post on here. They may have gotten all reallocated this afternoon. We also offer credit and they can be financed, all of this storm stuff adds up out of pocket pretty quick.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8362 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:40 pm

Link to latest Decision Support Briefing from NWS Charleston, in their latest tweet.

 https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/906284931978059776




NWS Charleston, SC‏Verified account @NWSCharlestonSC

Check out our latest local briefing on #Irma as of 530 PM: http://www.weather.gov/media/chs/briefi ... iefing.pdf
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8363 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:40 pm

KWT wrote:
Steve wrote:
stormreader wrote: You see that little south bend upcoming in the Cuban coast. I think the storm will find its way into that little nook in the coastal waters, and from there launch itself toward the Fl coast.


What's cool is that the direction of spin (counterclockwise passing north) and the closeness to the island could actually pull it in. I don't expect that to happen, but it wouldn't be the first time.


Yeah, we don't often get the chance to see such a powerful hurricane interact with land in such a way and so I wouldn't rule what you are saying with regards to Irma feeling a tug that helps it to paralell Cuba, could go further west than expected if that were to happen, then perhaps a sharper right hook (may wobble east of north briefly) to make up the difference. Thats my gut.

Still, people need to listen to the NHC and stay safe.

Would be interesting. Gonna watch for it. A little farther west than expected along Cuban coast, then maybe even a slight NNE jog very temporarily coming off the coast. Got it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8364 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:40 pm

IF Irma is able to clear out that huge new eye it's been working on since that last rather structurally disruptive ERC (which appears to be complete) it's going to be an awe-inspiring (yet scary!) sight on satellite.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8365 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:40 pm

Bolebuns wrote:Does anyone know if Jeff Piotrowski‏ is planning on doing another crazy in storm livecast? He should just bring Blue Shed Harvey with him for shelter. ;-)



And encourage more people to do stupid things?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8366 Postby leanne_uk » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:41 pm

Thank you for replying and for the other posters replying too.
I have sent her over what everyone has said and I truly hope she listens to the advice.
As she is flying into meet friends, she has been under the impression of will all be ok.
I'm in Germany currently with the British army so cannot physically get to London Gatwick to stop her or I would. I just hope either the airline comes to it's senses and stops the flight or she realises that this is really nothing to take lightly.
The friends and family of other friends are in a mix of the Disney complex or private villa rents around the Kissimmee area. Thankfully the staff at the resort's have been brilliant but those in the private villas are relying on local reports and trying to figure out what it means for them. They are all due to fly home in the next 6 days but are aware they may not be able to.
I pray for everyone in Irma's path.... I honestly dread to imagine the devastating impact she will have on Florida in the coming hours.

Thank you all again so much xx

westcoastnative wrote:
leanne_uk wrote:Sorry to quote myself but I didn't get a response. I know this board is fast moving and especially under these circumstances.
My friend who is due to fly out to Orlando is literally sat contemplating whether or not to get on her flight.... any help would be amazing.
Thank you

leanne_uk wrote:I've got friends worried about their loved ones on holiday in Orlando who have not been given a flight out. They have very young children and are in a pure state if panic at what is to come.
I have a childhood friend who has just had their flight brought forward by 3 hours so they can get into Orlando before the airport closes.... she is currently sat in a hotel room in the UK not knowing whether to get on a flight and arrive less than a day before Irma hits or cancel her holiday and not risk it.
Can anyone give me any advice to pass onto the guys out there/flying out please.

Any help or advice at all will be so greatly appreciated.


Unless she enjoys the idea of being in a hot, humid climate with potentially no electricity or water/food for her holiday, I would cancel it. Seriously. I understand the disappointment of having to cancel a vacation, but flying into Florida right now would be really foolish, in my opinion.
Last edited by leanne_uk on Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#8367 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:42 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 082239
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 20 20170908
222930 2228N 07658W 6957 02678 9460 +136 //// 077129 131 124 043 05
223000 2226N 07658W 6968 02617 9383 +163 +156 072130 131 129 011 00
223030 2224N 07657W 6950 02602 9330 +178 +149 078114 119 121 001 03
223100 2222N 07657W 6961 02560 9301 +177 +156 079084 092 092 003 03
223130 2220N 07657W 6966 02536 9270 +190 +164 079068 072 051 001 00
223200 2218N 07657W 6966 02520 9250 +197 +143 081056 060 041 001 00
223230 2216N 07656W 6951 02527 9243 +189 +150 085043 048 033 001 00
223300 2214N 07656W 6968 02497 9234 +187 +170 086033 036 025 001 00
223330 2211N 07656W 6952 02510 9223 +192 +166 083026 029 021 001 00
223400 2209N 07656W 6951 02506 9210 +203 +140 094017 019 015 002 00
223430 2207N 07656W 6966 02483 9201 +216 +113 086005 009 015 002 03
223500 2205N 07656W 6939 02518 9203 +215 +115 291008 013 011 001 00
223530 2203N 07657W 6951 02512 9216 +207 +129 278023 028 019 001 00
223600 2201N 07655W 6968 02498 9221 +210 +130 261037 039 021 001 03
223630 2202N 07652W 6963 02508 9222 +215 +120 238038 040 034 001 00
223700 2204N 07650W 6957 02520 9233 +207 +127 216046 049 041 002 00
223730 2205N 07648W 6949 02546 9257 +196 +119 204055 061 042 000 03
223800 2204N 07646W 6958 02557 9303 +169 +137 205074 083 068 003 00
223830 2203N 07644W 6961 02587 9354 +149 +145 206092 095 099 011 00
223900 2202N 07642W 6951 02634 9394 +144 //// 207102 103 128 019 05
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8368 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:42 pm

Bolebuns wrote:Does anyone know if Jeff Piotrowski‏ is planning on doing another crazy in storm livecast? He should just bring Blue Shed Harvey with him for shelter. ;-)


And maybe Palm Tree Hector for some added tropical scenery?!

(Sorry, not meaning to be flippant. I found it very odd how the shed & the palm tree got so much focus on twitter, but there wasn't much else to see in any of the live web cams, I guess!)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8369 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:42 pm

KBBOCA wrote:Indeed.... I'm not sure the storm surge risk for SW FL is getting enough attention in media. Though I think from Emergency Officials it surely is. I know there are bunches of evac orders that have gone out today for areas of SW FL

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/906282875011690497




Mark Sudduth‏Verified account @hurricanetrack 10m10 minutes ago

I cannot emphasize enough that what I am seeing in the model guidance is suggesting a massive storm surge possible for Southwest Florida!

I sure hope its getting that attention in SW Fl. But on the national media, no, it hasn't. But I am gonna give the Weather Channel some credit. At least they have tried to stress the dangers to SW Fl. But national media tends to focus on huge population centers.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8370 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:42 pm

EquusStorm wrote:IF Irma is able to clear out that huge new eye it's been working on since that last rather structurally disruptive ERC (which appears to be complete) it's going to be an awe-inspiring (yet scary!) sight on satellite.


It really is trying to clear that eye out, i'm not sure it will until it clear the Cuban coast a little and makes it final approach towards Sw Florida.

Also yeah depending on the exact tracks the storm surge could be quite major, especially given Irma has been such an intense hurricane for so long now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8371 Postby MBryant » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:43 pm

theavocado wrote:
westcoastnative wrote:
leanne_uk wrote:Sorry to quote myself but I didn't get a response. I know this board is fast moving and especially under these circumstances.
My friend who is due to fly out to Orlando is literally sat contemplating whether or not to get on her flight.... any help would be amazing.
Thank you



Unless she enjoys the idea of being in a hot, humid climate with potentially no electricity or water/food for her holiday, I would cancel it. Seriously. I understand the disappointment of having to cancel a vacation, but flying into Florida right now would be really foolish, in my opinion.


It would build character.

Child: "Mom I thought we were going to Disney?"
Mom: "Well, Junior, it turns out that Disney closed for the week because of the storm. But, since we already scheduled the flight and we have the means, we decided to come anyway and assist with clean up. Sometimes other people need our help more than we need to take a vacation."

Just a thought if you're caught in the storm in a multi-level building which are common in resorts. First impact is likely to be wind impact and a lower interior room is best. You are likely to be without power, so find your path to stairways and make sure you can reach them in the dark if necessary. Make sure they are not locked or blocked if you need to ascend a level or two when the flooding becomes the greater threat.

if you are on a low lying area within a few miles of the beach, then start out higher due to surge risks. But if you haven't left well before the storm, don't try if during the storm if it can be avoided. That is even riskier. You don't want to be stuck outside, traffic or not, when the storm hits. Driving into flood waters is deadly.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8372 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:43 pm

Pressures down to 920mb per recon.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8373 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:43 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8374 Postby Centralflamama » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:44 pm

Steve wrote:
KBBOCA wrote:Speaking personally, as a total amateur, I think my current highest concern (in terms of major metro areas) is somewhat less for Miami tonight and much higher for Tampa - St. Pete

With Miami in the spotlight for days they seemed to take preps very seriously. The FL West Coast *seems* to have been less of a focus earlier in the week - at least nationally - and so I fear folks in Tampa may not have prepared and now may be near the bullseye. Hope I'm very wrong, both about Tampa being lax in preps, and also it being in the bullseye.


Marco Island to Cape Coral/Ft. Meyers and then Gasparilla Sound-Charlotte Harbor and Sarasota Bay. Tampa too, but it's farther up the line. Someone mentioned earlier that even a weakened storm that was a Cat 5 will carry tremendous surge. We've see it before. So besides obviously the Keys, for everyone from Marco Island to Naples to Ft. Meyers and Cape Coral to Sanibel Island and Captiva to Port Charlotte to Venice to Sarasota/Bradenton/Longboat Key and finally St. Pete Beach and Clearwater, they have to know that water will come in close to the coast and into the bays, inlets and rivers. If you're low and in that area, I'd probably get out if the NHC maintains the SW FL hit.




I agree, we flood on Anna Maria|Bradenton beach with a regular storm... I hope everyone left. Last I heard some guys were staying.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8375 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:44 pm

EquusStorm wrote:IF Irma is able to clear out that huge new eye it's been working on since that last rather structurally disruptive ERC (which appears to be complete) it's going to be an awe-inspiring (yet scary!) sight on satellite.


The sight of Irma coming off the Cuban coastal waters on its approach to Fl will truly be awe-inspiring and scary. This will be compounded if the storm is in an intensification phase.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8376 Postby sikkar » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:44 pm

Latest microwave.

https://ibb.co/iZrLKF
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8377 Postby Bolebuns » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:44 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
Bolebuns wrote:Does anyone know if Jeff Piotrowski‏ is planning on doing another crazy in storm livecast? He should just bring Blue Shed Harvey with him for shelter. ;-)



And encourage more people to do stupid things?


Exactly. I thought the same last time.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8378 Postby bjackrian » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:45 pm

Unflagged 129 kt SFMR north of the eye and extrap pressure of 920 mb.

222900 2230N 07658W 6951 02739 9526 +130 //// 076138 139 104 035 05
222930 2228N 07658W 6957 02678 9460 +136 //// 077129 131 124 043 05
223000 2226N 07658W 6968 02617 9383 +163 +156 072130 131 129 011 00
223030 2224N 07657W 6950 02602 9330 +178 +149 078114 119 121 001 03
223100 2222N 07657W 6961 02560 9301 +177 +156 079084 092 092 003 03
223130 2220N 07657W 6966 02536 9270 +190 +164 079068 072 051 001 00
223200 2218N 07657W 6966 02520 9250 +197 +143 081056 060 041 001 00
223230 2216N 07656W 6951 02527 9243 +189 +150 085043 048 033 001 00
223300 2214N 07656W 6968 02497 9234 +187 +170 086033 036 025 001 00
223330 2211N 07656W 6952 02510 9223 +192 +166 083026 029 021 001 00
223400 2209N 07656W 6951 02506 9210 +203 +140 094017 019 015 002 00
223430 2207N 07656W 6966 02483 9201 +216 +113 086005 009 015 002 03
223500 2205N 07656W 6939 02518 9203 +215 +115 291008 013 011 001 00
223530 2203N 07657W 6951 02512 9216 +207 +129 278023 028 019 001 00
223600 2201N 07655W 6968 02498 9221 +210 +130 261037 039 021 001 03
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8379 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:45 pm

Watching the weather channel, I was stunned to hear people were just leaving tree limbs on the roads. In a hurricane that is going to become a projectile and cause unnecessary damage.

I really am hoping everyone heeds the warnings about Irma and gets out while they can.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8380 Postby CryHavoc » Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:45 pm

Bolebuns wrote:Does anyone know if Jeff Piotrowski‏ is planning on doing another crazy in storm livecast? He should just bring Blue Shed Harvey with him for shelter. ;-)


Pretty sure I saw where he's not chasing this one.

Josh Morgerman is down there in S Fl, though. Hope he makes it ok, given that the hotel he stayed in for Harvey almost collapsed.
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