ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kat5]

Conditions, forecast-wise have improved in my area. That Southwest wobble might give her a taste of Cuban cigars for the next 12 hours. For those on the west coast stay safe.

[KBBOCA]

Irma continues to shatter records...

 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/906286513608171521




Steve Bowen‏ @SteveBowenWx 4m4 minutes ago

#Irma will surpass 100 consecutive hours w/ Category 4 or 5 intensity tonight (September 8).

[stormreader]

Pressures down to 920mb per recon.

Pretty significant now. Just a very few hours ago at 927. then heard 925. If 920, then this could really take off. GFS on intensity seems outlandish. But, Irma is not your normal storm. This has unknown potential. Restrengthening in the Fl Straits......

[stormreader]

Irma continues to shatter records...

 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/906286513608171521




Steve Bowen‏ @SteveBowenWx 4m4 minutes ago

#Irma will surpass 100 consecutive hours w/ Category 4 or 5 intensity tonight (September 8).

And will continue for many more.

[KWT]

Latest microwave.

https://ibb.co/iZrLKF

Given the eyewall is realtively weak on the SW side its impressive Irma is holding on as much as it is, I suspect that is probably solely due to taking in some drier air from Cuba.

Still hopefully the eyewall remains weaker down there, will mean probably cat-3 type winds down there, which obviously is still horrific, but not quite the brutal 4/5 winds that may be felt elsewhere this weekend.

[Centralflamama]

Watching the weather channel, I was stunned to hear people were just leaving tree limbs on the roads. In a hurricane that is going to become a projectile and cause unnecessary damage.

I really am hoping everyone heeds the warnings about Irma and gets out while they can.

My neighbors had their giant oaks trimmed and they let the people leave two giant piles at the end of their driveway. I'm furious, so rude.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906253537356775424



 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906253679883419653



 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906254000340729856



 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906254332961619971



 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906254686222778370



 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906254983481446400



 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906255686941716481



 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906256026357432320



 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906256939637714945



 https://twitter.com/forecastguy/status/906257711603605504

[mike2kt]

Does anyone know if Jeff Piotrowski‏ is planning on doing another crazy in storm livecast? He should just bring Blue Shed Harvey with him for shelter.

In case any one wants to revisit Jeff's adventure with Harvey (just 14 days ago) here is the video, fun starts about 26 minutes in.

https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1zqKVRbYXWWKB

[Aric Dunn]

Could it be done....it looks like..

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/906286888159514624




Hurricane Hunters‏ @53rdWRS 8m8 minutes ago

Incredible view of #hurricaneirma from #ReserveCitizenAirmen Capt. Phil Blancher. @USAFReserve Hurricane Hunters will fly 'til landfall.

[KWT]

Watching the weather channel, I was stunned to hear people were just leaving tree limbs on the roads. In a hurricane that is going to become a projectile and cause unnecessary damage.

I really am hoping everyone heeds the warnings about Irma and gets out while they can.

My neighbors had their giant oaks trimmed and they let the people leave two giant piles at the end of their driveway. I'm furious, so rude.

That really does sound crazy, is there anything you can do insurance wise to try and protect yourself in the case some of it smashes through your house?

[NDG]

Gtmo naval base is reporting wind gusts of 55 mph, 155 miles SE from Wilma's eye, wow!

[KBBOCA]

Could it be done....it looks like..

???

[KWT]

Could it be done....it looks like..

I think it is done as well, but for the next 12hrs the Cuban coastline will probably keep Irma in check through dry air, indeed you can see this drier air bubble round the eye at times on the IR and then get mixed out by the eyewall convection.

Its going to get a solid 18hr window to strengthen and if it can avoid too much of Cuba then the inner core will be in a good position to strengthen. GFS 889mbs won't be far wrong if that happens.

[jlauderdal]

I've seen some discussion of people suggesting to drain a foot or so of water out of their pool to help prevent flooding from rains.

Have no idea where they got that from though.

Completely ineffective...also, dont throw patio furniture in your pool unless you want to resurface it...i can report that masking tape has been deployed on some windows in fort lauderdale providing zero protection and a nasty cleanup job due to the glue..2017 and tape still being used...

[romeoblade]

Does anyone know if Jeff Piotrowski‏ is planning on doing another crazy in storm livecast? He should just bring Blue Shed Harvey with him for shelter.

Pretty sure I saw where he's not chasing this one.

Josh Morgerman is down there in S Fl, though. Hope he makes it ok, given that the hotel he stayed in for Harvey almost collapsed.

Jeff has been doing a couple live streams a day, he's in South Florida but stated he has no intention of weathering this storm in a car wash. He plans on finding a well built structure to hang out in.

[bjackrian]

924 mb by drop at the surface.

Unflagged 129 kt SFMR north of the eye and extrap pressure of 920 mb.

222900 2230N 07658W 6951 02739 9526 +130 //// 076138 139 104 035 05
222930 2228N 07658W 6957 02678 9460 +136 //// 077129 131 124 043 05
223000 2226N 07658W 6968 02617 9383 +163 +156 072130 131 129 011 00
223030 2224N 07657W 6950 02602 9330 +178 +149 078114 119 121 001 03
223100 2222N 07657W 6961 02560 9301 +177 +156 079084 092 092 003 03
223130 2220N 07657W 6966 02536 9270 +190 +164 079068 072 051 001 00
223200 2218N 07657W 6966 02520 9250 +197 +143 081056 060 041 001 00
223230 2216N 07656W 6951 02527 9243 +189 +150 085043 048 033 001 00
223300 2214N 07656W 6968 02497 9234 +187 +170 086033 036 025 001 00
223330 2211N 07656W 6952 02510 9223 +192 +166 083026 029 021 001 00
223400 2209N 07656W 6951 02506 9210 +203 +140 094017 019 015 002 00
223430 2207N 07656W 6966 02483 9201 +216 +113 086005 009 015 002 03
223500 2205N 07656W 6939 02518 9203 +215 +115 291008 013 011 001 00
223530 2203N 07657W 6951 02512 9216 +207 +129 278023 028 019 001 00
223600 2201N 07655W 6968 02498 9221 +210 +130 261037 039 021 001 03

[ronyan]

Could it be done....it looks like..

Looks to be opening it's larger eye now on IR.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Latest microwave.

https://ibb.co/iZrLKF

Given the eyewall is realtively weak on the SW side its impressive Irma is holding on as much as it is, I suspect that is probably solely due to taking in some drier air from Cuba.

Still hopefully the eyewall remains weaker down there, will mean probably cat-3 type winds down there, which obviously is still horrific, but not quite the brutal 4/5 winds that may be felt elsewhere this weekend.

I dont know where this "dry air" stuff is coming from. Dry air doesnt magically appear in the center it has to be pulled into the circulation from outer bands and there is no evidence that has happened. Most fluctuations at this point are eye wall dynamics. Think the spinning skater when they pull in their arms they spin faster. Well after an EWRC the eye expands as does the the wind field...the skater's arms go out again. It then pulls in again and spin increases.
Its not dry air

[stormreader]

Could it be done....it looks like..

I think it is done as well, but for the next 12hrs the Cuban coastline will probably keep Irma in check through dry air, indeed you can see this drier air bubble round the eye at times on the IR and then get mixed out by the eyewall convection.

Its going to get a solid 18hr window to strengthen and if it can avoid too much of Cuba then the inner core will be in a good position to strengthen. GFS 889mbs won't be far wrong if that happens.

Holy #$%@