SunnyThoughts wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Scary track...don't like that track for Jose either
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SunnyThoughts wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
floridasun78 wrote:so we don't see sift to east? all afternoon models been to west?
stormreader wrote:You would think that the pressure falls are probably exaggerated. Should be. But the storm's history makes you wary.
Steve wrote:stormreader wrote:You would think that the pressure falls are probably exaggerated. Should be. But the storm's history makes you wary.
Here's the deal though. Other than for the record books, it probably doesn't matter that much if it's 890, 900 or 910. All of those are extreme for landfalls. I'm not exactly sure what the lowest pressure ever at landfall was on the USA. I know the 1935 Keys storm is a pretty good analog for the first half of Florida. And I think that was second all time to Wilma. But I'm not sure about actual landfall. It would seem Irma will be in the Top 2 or 3 all time with any of those pressures. I might be wrong, so if I am, someone please correct me.
gatorcane wrote:I think the models might shift slightly back east until landfall. I see the center moving up through the SW tip of Florida over a Everglades National park on a N track and pass through the Everglades east of Naples/Ft Myers by about 50-75 miles.
Big Easy Breeze wrote:Steve wrote:stormreader wrote:You would think that the pressure falls are probably exaggerated. Should be. But the storm's history makes you wary.
Here's the deal though. Other than for the record books, it probably doesn't matter that much if it's 890, 900 or 910. All of those are extreme for landfalls. I'm not exactly sure what the lowest pressure ever at landfall was on the USA. I know the 1935 Keys storm is a pretty good analog for the first half of Florida. And I think that was second all time to Wilma. But I'm not sure about actual landfall. It would seem Irma will be in the Top 2 or 3 all time with any of those pressures. I might be wrong, so if I am, someone please correct me.
I believe Camille holds the lowest pressure at US landfall; 895.
KWT wrote:HMON has quite a significant time over north Cuba, probably the best part of 12hrs. If that happens then Irma will probably be down to a 3 by the time it comes off.
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