ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
KBBOCA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8421 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:11 pm

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/906293205511090176




Eric Holthaus‏Verified account @EricHolthaus 4m4 minutes ago

That huge ~50 mile wide eye that meteorologists and the models have been warning about is starting to appear. A stronger Irma still possible
1 likes   

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2411
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8422 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:13 pm

Image

That looks like an EWRC to me
Also looks to be "stair stepping" wnw
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9184
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#8423 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:14 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 082312
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 15 20170908
223430 2505N 08113W 4098 07414 0402 -137 -367 025015 015 024 000 00
223500 2504N 08110W 4098 07413 0402 -140 -377 030016 016 024 000 00
223530 2503N 08108W 4101 07410 0402 -139 -364 035017 017 024 000 00
223600 2501N 08105W 4098 07413 0401 -137 -354 040019 020 024 000 00
223630 2500N 08103W 4101 07408 0402 -137 -364 045020 020 024 001 00
223700 2459N 08100W 4099 07412 0402 -136 -377 048021 022 027 000 00
223730 2458N 08058W 4100 07410 0401 -137 -385 046021 022 026 000 00
223800 2456N 08056W 4099 07410 0399 -139 -388 041021 021 027 000 00
223830 2455N 08053W 4098 07411 0398 -140 -389 042021 022 030 001 00
223900 2454N 08051W 4101 07406 0397 -135 -392 040022 022 030 001 00
223930 2453N 08048W 4099 07407 0396 -138 -396 039023 023 029 002 00
224000 2452N 08046W 4099 07406 0395 -140 -398 042024 024 034 000 03
224030 2450N 08043W 4099 07403 0394 -140 -398 040024 024 046 002 00
224100 2449N 08041W 4099 07403 0393 -136 -399 038024 025 029 000 00
224130 2448N 08038W 4098 07405 0394 -137 -408 038025 025 026 000 00
224200 2447N 08036W 4098 07407 0395 -132 -403 041026 026 024 000 00
224230 2445N 08033W 4099 07403 0394 -128 -400 039027 027 026 000 00
224300 2444N 08031W 4101 07400 0393 -127 -404 037026 027 026 000 00
224330 2443N 08029W 4097 07406 0392 -125 -408 040028 028 027 000 00
224400 2442N 08026W 4101 07398 0390 -124 -408 040028 029 028 000 00
$$
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8424 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:15 pm

Yep Irma is highly likely to make landfall, eye still moving close to 275.

Convection in the eyewall has really taken off in the last hour, looking very impressive on IR again after looking a touch ragged after that gulp of subsidence from Cuba (I'll stand by what I originally said, that was subsidence from Cuba, watch the IR loops from RAMMB and LITERALLY see it coming in from Cuba and rotate and mix out in the latest strengthening phase).

Probably will be strengthening into the Cuba landfall unfortunately.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9184
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#8425 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:15 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 082313
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 16 20170908
224430 2440N 08024W 4098 07402 0390 -132 -406 043030 030 027 000 00
224500 2439N 08021W 4098 07401 0390 -128 -402 043031 031 026 000 00
224530 2438N 08019W 4101 07396 0390 -125 -401 043031 032 028 000 00
224600 2437N 08016W 4098 07401 0390 -125 -401 043032 033 029 000 00
224630 2436N 08014W 4101 07397 0390 -128 -406 040032 032 029 000 00
224700 2434N 08012W 4099 07401 0391 -130 -412 039031 032 029 001 00
224730 2433N 08009W 4099 07401 0392 -130 -414 041031 031 029 000 00
224800 2432N 08007W 4097 07404 0391 -130 -397 040031 032 030 000 00
224830 2431N 08004W 4099 07402 0391 -129 -368 041029 030 028 001 00
224900 2429N 08002W 4099 07401 0390 -128 -326 038030 031 028 000 00
224930 2428N 07959W 4098 07402 0390 -128 -315 041033 035 027 000 00
225000 2427N 07957W 4099 07398 0389 -129 -331 042033 035 028 000 00
225030 2426N 07955W 4099 07397 0388 -125 -322 038032 032 028 000 00
225100 2425N 07952W 4094 07407 0387 -130 -288 043033 034 029 000 00
225130 2423N 07950W 4100 07393 0386 -127 -259 044033 034 030 000 00
225200 2422N 07947W 4098 07398 0386 -126 -254 044036 038 029 000 00
225230 2421N 07945W 4098 07397 0385 -130 -269 046039 039 030 000 00
225300 2420N 07943W 4098 07397 0384 -131 -259 047041 042 028 000 00
225330 2418N 07940W 4101 07391 0383 -130 -264 046042 043 029 000 00
225400 2417N 07938W 4101 07387 0381 -132 -256 045041 043 028 000 00
$$
;
0 likes   

SootyTern
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 316
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: NYC (formerly Homestead, FL)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8426 Postby SootyTern » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:16 pm

leanne_uk wrote:Sorry to quote myself but I didn't get a response. I know this board is fast moving and especially under these circumstances.
My friend who is due to fly out to Orlando is literally sat contemplating whether or not to get on her flight.... any help would be amazing.
Thank you

leanne_uk wrote:I've got friends worried about their loved ones on holiday in Orlando who have not been given a flight out. They have very young children and are in a pure state if panic at what is to come.
I have a childhood friend who has just had their flight brought forward by 3 hours so they can get into Orlando before the airport closes.... she is currently sat in a hotel room in the UK not knowing whether to get on a flight and arrive less than a day before Irma hits or cancel her holiday and not risk it.
Can anyone give me any advice to pass onto the guys out there/flying out please.

Any help or advice at all will be so greatly appreciated.


Don't come.
1 likes   
Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gulf Coast: Opal '95 Georges '98 / So Fla: Katrina '05 Wilma '05 Irma '17

thoughtsinchaos
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2010 4:31 pm
Location: Los Angeles (UCLA)
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8427 Postby thoughtsinchaos » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:16 pm

At the very least a brush with the eyewall seems imminent for parts of northern Cuba

Image
Image
1 likes   

Shell Mound
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2432
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8428 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:20 pm

Last edited by Shell Mound on Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2411
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8429 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:20 pm

KWT wrote:Yep Irma is highly likely to make landfall, eye still moving close to 275.

Convection in the eyewall has really taken off in the last hour, looking very impressive on IR again after looking a touch ragged after that gulp of subsidence from Cuba (I'll stand by what I originally said, that was subsidence from Cuba, watch the IR loops from RAMMB and LITERALLY see it coming in from Cuba and rotate and mix out in the latest strengthening phase).

Probably will be strengthening into the Cuba landfall unfortunately.


Image
Image says otherwise...but I'll just agree to disagree
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9184
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#8430 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:21 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 082319
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 24 20170908
230930 2155N 07505W 6966 03124 0003 +102 +075 175060 060 040 002 00
231000 2158N 07505W 6967 03125 9998 +107 +072 170060 061 040 001 00
231030 2200N 07505W 6966 03126 9997 +108 +071 167060 060 038 002 00
231100 2203N 07504W 6967 03125 0003 +103 +074 166060 060 039 002 00
231130 2205N 07504W 6966 03126 0007 +100 +075 165061 061 039 002 00
231200 2208N 07504W 6967 03126 0006 +101 +077 162061 062 037 002 00
231230 2211N 07503W 6967 03126 0003 +104 +076 161063 063 034 002 00
231300 2213N 07503W 6967 03123 9999 +104 +079 159064 065 035 002 03
231330 2215N 07505W 6967 03122 9998 +105 +077 159062 063 024 003 03
231400 2215N 07508W 6964 03124 0000 +102 +075 157063 063 040 001 00
231430 2215N 07510W 6955 03133 9995 +103 +078 157064 064 042 002 00
231500 2215N 07513W 6956 03128 9991 +105 +069 160065 065 042 002 00
231530 2215N 07515W 6965 03115 9988 +104 +067 160064 064 042 002 00
231600 2215N 07518W 6968 03107 9986 +104 +071 160063 064 042 002 00
231630 2215N 07520W 6957 03119 9986 +102 +074 160068 070 041 002 00
231700 2215N 07522W 7118 02924 9980 +112 +080 161069 070 043 002 00
231730 2215N 07525W 7338 02663 9975 +128 +084 160069 069 042 002 03
231800 2215N 07527W 7515 02460 9976 +138 +099 161067 067 047 003 00
231830 2215N 07529W 7527 02445 9975 +138 +108 162067 067 046 003 00
231900 2215N 07532W 7528 02439 9972 +132 +123 162066 066 048 004 00
0 likes   

KBBOCA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8431 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:21 pm

3 likes   

BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8432 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:25 pm

The stories of people starting to relax are scaring me. I grew up in New Orleans, and I can remember listening to the radio during Katrina after the levees broke and the desperate pleas for help, it was horrifying, and I'm afraid it might happen again here.
3 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1923
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8433 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:26 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Image

That looks like an EWRC to me
Also looks to be "stair stepping" wnw

It is in that condition perpetually.
0 likes   

User avatar
Houstonia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 829
Age: 60
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 9:45 am
Location: Sharpstown, Houston, Harris County, Southeast Texas.

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8434 Postby Houstonia » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:27 pm

How is this track looking for Gulfport, Florida? I have close friends in both Gulfport as well as West Palm Beach, and I am concerned for both of them.

Previously, I wasn't as worried for my Gulfport Friend, but now it looks like the eye could potentially be pretty close to her. On the other hand, my friend in WPB will still be on the dirty side. :-(
0 likes   

BYG Jacob

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8435 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:27 pm

Also, does anybody know where the shear went? The past few years in the Atlantic it was crazy strong and pretty much killed everything aside from a few lucky storms, and now its just gone.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8436 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:30 pm

otowntiger wrote:It is in that condition perpetually.


Remember Irma had an exceptional inner core that was very tightly wound, few hurricanes in history could compete with type of inner core. Was always going to take a while to beat it down. Its managed it now.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8437 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:30 pm

Amazing how fast the new eyewall convection has increased so rapidily once that inner eyewall finally quit producing convection and stealing energy from the the outer.
should begin to really deepen qute fast until more land interaction. then even more so once it pulls away from cuba though before the shear increases. will have a good 24 hours.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8438 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:30 pm

I have a question, I notice that she is indeed likely strengthening, but at the same time, imminently going to hit Cuba in some aspect..both of which Levi commented on. Will this landfall onto Cuba likely keep her from this strengthening she is undergoing, or likely wont impact her strengthening much..
1 likes   

KBBOCA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8439 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:31 pm

This is a really cool tweet / quote that I imagines sums up what many of us feel about Irma. Fear, terror, awe, fascination... yup.

 https://twitter.com/OmanReagan/status/906296948847656960




Michael‏Verified account @OmanReagan 7m7 minutes ago
Replying to @EricHolthaus

The cross of fear, horror, and beauty is a hard thing to talk about. Like Otto's 'mysterium tremendum et fascinans'

Image
0 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9184
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#8440 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:31 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 082329
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 25 20170908
231930 2215N 07534W 7513 02451 9969 +130 +121 161068 068 047 003 00
232000 2215N 07536W 7516 02443 9966 +128 +124 161070 071 049 004 00
232030 2215N 07539W 7526 02428 9960 +130 +127 165072 073 048 006 00
232100 2215N 07541W 7522 02430 9955 +130 +127 162074 076 048 005 00
232130 2215N 07543W 7512 02437 9947 +133 +129 168072 073 059 007 00
232200 2215N 07545W 7523 02421 9939 +138 +117 170072 073 084 014 03
232230 2215N 07548W 7527 02412 9935 +140 +111 169073 074 050 001 00
232300 2215N 07550W 7519 02414 9933 +135 +110 169074 075 052 002 00
232330 2215N 07552W 7508 02425 9925 +136 +118 171075 076 054 004 00
232400 2215N 07554W 7513 02413 9925 +131 +129 170078 080 055 005 00
232430 2215N 07557W 7513 02410 9922 +129 //// 171078 080 053 006 01
232500 2215N 07559W 7519 02397 9913 +134 +127 169078 079 054 001 00
232530 2215N 07601W 7524 02390 9904 +139 +121 167080 080 056 002 00
232600 2215N 07603W 7527 02380 9894 +143 +115 166080 080 058 003 00
232630 2215N 07605W 7513 02385 9887 +140 +128 169080 083 060 006 00
232700 2215N 07608W 7517 02374 9879 +139 +136 170083 084 057 011 00
232730 2215N 07610W 7513 02372 9873 +137 +137 170087 090 060 009 00
232800 2215N 07612W 7517 02361 9866 +137 +134 169091 092 068 008 00
232830 2215N 07614W 7523 02349 9856 +140 +134 167093 093 062 007 00
232900 2214N 07616W 7514 02348 9847 +138 +134 166094 095 061 008 00
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests