ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormreader]

The southern edge of the eye wall will graze the Cuba coast. However, I am not sold yet that the entire eye wall will penetrate into Cuba before the north turn. I hope I am wrong and Irma does penetrate fully to really disrupt the eye wall. Wow. This is extremely close though.

Seems unlikely Jax. She's still got a north component. More likely in the coastal waters for a few hours.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082339
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 26 20170908
232930 2214N 07619W 7522 02332 9837 +140 //// 167096 097 063 013 01
233000 2214N 07621W 7520 02322 9822 +141 //// 168096 097 066 017 01
233030 2215N 07623W 7513 02317 9806 +141 //// 168097 098 069 022 05
233100 2214N 07625W 7505 02316 9790 +144 //// 168091 096 070 020 05
233130 2214N 07628W 7498 02314 9776 +148 //// 166089 090 069 016 01
233200 2214N 07630W 7513 02284 9760 +152 //// 165090 092 073 013 01
233230 2214N 07632W 7501 02286 9754 +147 //// 164090 092 073 013 01
233300 2214N 07634W 7527 02245 9737 +152 +145 162095 097 075 011 00
233330 2214N 07637W 7513 02243 9716 +152 +138 161101 103 078 011 00
233400 2214N 07639W 7511 02224 9687 +163 +130 161107 110 090 011 00
233430 2214N 07641W 7511 02198 9664 +157 +131 161115 117 095 013 00
233500 2214N 07644W 7517 02162 9633 +155 +144 160122 125 094 010 00
233530 2214N 07646W 7504 02141 9598 +147 +144 161131 135 097 026 00
233600 2214N 07648W 7498 02097 9543 +151 //// 161138 139 109 049 05
233630 2214N 07651W 7501 02044 9481 +158 //// 164135 140 123 047 05
233700 2214N 07653W 7471 02026 9423 +162 //// 166133 140 134 033 05
233730 2214N 07655W 7421 02037 9363 +176 //// 161091 102 127 023 01
233800 2214N 07657W 7499 01929 9323 +204 +179 149076 081 120 004 00
233830 2213N 07659W 7498 01905 9299 +205 +184 147062 068 096 005 03
233900 2213N 07702W 7514 01872 9286 +199 +190 140052 054 042 002 00

[Ptarmigan]

I guess so but they said if it gets super bad they'll leave and the interviewed one stated Key West as his go-to escape. They won't know how bad it is until its too late...they will be hanging on for survival way more then they think.

"If it gets super bad they'll leave"? Good luck with that.

As Mr. Oogie Boogie said in The Nightmare Before Christmas: "You ain't going nowhere." Pure foolishness.

One party to never attend even if I get invitations. It will be promptly thrown away. Very fine thank you.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Also, does anybody know where the shear went? The past few years in the Atlantic it was crazy strong and pretty much killed everything aside from a few lucky storms, and now its just gone.

Can anybody answer this? Is it ridging or...?

No el nino for one, but lots of other factors as well. Lower pressures in the MDR, higher pressures currently in the CONUS as well as cooler than normal temps in the east aid convergence over water

[northjaxpro]

IR LOOP

Appears it bounced off Cuba and is now moving up the coast ... though probably just a wobble.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=25&lon=-75&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=50&quality=90&palette=ir5.pal

Looks slightly north of due west. There is that little south bend of the Cuban coast up ahead too. Unless she is pulled radically down inland, and it has happened, I think its unlikely we will see any significant penetration of the Cuban coast. Best guess would be she skips along the coast into that little south bending nook, before beginning a more north trajectory towards Fl. Good chance she sustains herself if that occurs. As others have noted, Cuban coast is pretty flat here.

Yes it is. That part of Cuba is not mountainous like the eastern end if the island. So, Unless Irma really can penetrate into Cuba, I do not see much disruption to the eye wall..

[Aric Dunn]

the ridge is beginning to weaken... the whole is almost there..

[WeatherGuesser]

I have a question, I notice that she is indeed likely strengthening, but at the same time, imminently going to hit Cuba in some aspect..both of which Levi commented on. Will this landfall onto Cuba likely keep her from this strengthening she is undergoing, or likely wont impact her strengthening much..

Glancing blow it appears, should be little or no significant effect and plenty of warm open water ahead.

[Nimbus]

The southern edge of the eye wall will graze the Cuba coast. However, I am not sold yet that the entire eye wall will penetrate into Cuba before the north turn. I hope I am wrong and Irma does penetrate fully to really disrupt the eye wall. Wow. This is extremely close though.

Last hour or so of wobbles looks to me as though its tracking toward tomorrows 1800Z position which is just off the north Cuban coastline. If the turn has commenced in just 6 hours time it would be tracking further WNW off the coast. Recon points should start coming in further north soon.

[KWT]

Eyewall getting mighty close to the north coast of Cuba now on the Cuban radar. with such a large eye those islands on the northern side of the system probably aren't going to do anything to Irma.

[stormreader]

Cuba terrain map.

Getting into the larger barrier islands now off the north coast. At closest point, is where the coast is narrowest and also flat. As stated, will be pulling moisture in off the Carribean. Giving the NHC credit for not forecasting any weakening at this time.

[KBBOCA]

quick comparison of 18z GFS & HWRF:

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906302358908542976




John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 2m2 minutes ago

18Z GFS: Big Pine Key, Naples, Arcadia, Ocala

18Z HWRF: Key West, Port Charlotte, Tampa Bay
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

[northjaxpro]

I have a question, I notice that she is indeed likely strengthening, but at the same time, imminently going to hit Cuba in some aspect..both of which Levi commented on. Will this landfall onto Cuba likely keep her from this strengthening she is undergoing, or likely wont impact her strengthening much..

Glancing blow it appears, should be little or no significant effect and plenty of warm open water ahead.

Yeah, I agree!

[stormreader]

The southern edge of the eye wall will graze the Cuba coast. However, I am not sold yet that the entire eye wall will penetrate into Cuba before the north turn. I hope I am wrong and Irma does penetrate fully to really disrupt the eye wall. Wow. This is extremely close though.

Last hour or so of wobbles looks to me as though its tracking toward tomorrows 1800Z position which is just off the north Cuban coastline. If the turn has commenced in just 6 hours time it would be tracking further WNW off the coast. Recon points should start coming in further north soon.

That could be a key piece of info, if it bears out. A little farther off the coast, a little better conditions to begin possible strengthening. Tonight and tomorrow morning could be very interesting.

[nutkin517]

Watching the weather channel, I was stunned to hear people were just leaving tree limbs on the roads. In a hurricane that is going to become a projectile and cause unnecessary damage.

I really am hoping everyone heeds the warnings about Irma and gets out while they can.

My neighbors had their giant oaks trimmed and they let the people leave two giant piles at the end of their driveway. I'm furious, so rude.

I gave this suggestion on another forum.

Take pictures of the debris....from your house with perspective....or with your house in the background.

Then when YOUR insurance guy gets a claim, he can sue THEIR insurance guy!

Might screw them too if their house is damaged by the trimmings-turned-projectile.

[bahamaswx]

Solid white ring again, and some CMG starting to appear. Dvorak estimates should be way up.

[boca]

People are saying we are in the clear on the east coast honestly that's just crazy talk

[KBBOCA]

Scope of evacuations in SW FL has really increased:

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/906302889198604288




Dr. Rick Knabb‏Verified account @DrRickKnabb 3m3 minutes ago

Evacuations also ordered for #Irma storm surge watch/warning areas on FL Gulf coast from @CCOEM @SRQCountyGov @ManateeGov @PinellasEM

[tgenius]

By no means do I think we are out of the woods entirely but this is going to limit the wind in Miami considerably. The preparation was a necessity but people will complain unfortunately. :/

[KWT]

Worth noting that frictional effects on Cuba may help to tighten this new eyewall up and allow some quicker strengthening. Something to watch closely for in the next few hours as the systems inner core looks much improved in the last 2hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

People are saying we are in the clear on the east coast honestly that's just crazy talk

IT is looking much better in terms of no eyewall. but until its turns we still wont know..