ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

How many ACE points has Irma accumulated thus far?

As of 2 pm today, 54

Damn...thats half of a normal season!!!

[TheStormExpert]

I think the east coast of Florida dodged a HUGE bullet once again for the second year in the row with this one. Just like Matthew here in West Palm Beach we probably won't get above strong-TS force winds.

[WeatherGuesser]

How many ACE points has Irma accumulated thus far?

As of 2 pm today, 54

Damn...thats half of a normal season!!!

That's more than half of the current total for the West Pacific.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wait, did recon find 166mph winds last pass? I just read that I thought. If so, that is quite a impressively significant jump in such a short time. Was it flagged?

It was in the VM so not flagged

[Nederlander]

Also, does anybody know where the shear went? The past few years in the Atlantic it was crazy strong and pretty much killed everything aside from a few lucky storms, and now its just gone.

Can anybody answer this? Is it ridging or...?

Not really a short answer, it's all about global weather patterns, el nino, la nina, etc. Something you can study by using google (wind shear, hurricane, etc). This year we are warm neutral and obviously shear is running below normal, but it's also a bit of luck (or bad luck). Just a few weeks ago we were thinking this would be a slow season due to the early cold outbreaks in the midwest. Still a lot to learn about hurricane seasons.

Just something I have noticed, and I am sure the experts on here already know the reason why, but when the Pacific is churning out TC after TC, the Atlantic basin is dead and full of shear/sal. The reverse seems to be true most of the time as well, Atlantic is alive and Pacific is dead. Our atmosphere is quite interesting.

[TheProfessor]

What the heck happened to the movement of Irma? I had to send my computer to be repaired on Wednesday, last time I saw Irma in Motion was yesterday missy as she was passing Hispaniola and was approaching the Bahamas and looked to stay north of Cuba, did she take a sharp left turn?

[stormreader]

they will probably go with 165 mph now.. sheesh .. and it will likely get even stronger.. geezz//

Yes, I thought the 160 mph for S Fl landfall was conservative. No blame. We're in uncharted waters with this storm. 160 is Cat 5 and that should get anybody's attention. Could be a reasonable chance for this to get to 175-180 again. I'll leave it at that.

[GTStorm]

Not seeing it. In fact, saw a WNW-NW jog in the last few frames.

Looks to be heading exactly towards the next NHC forecast point (09 / 0600z). Wish I knew how to post link, just go to the NHC satellite imagery site and click on fcst points.

At this point they've probably got it pretty well nailed down.

Its pretty insane how well the NHC has been able to forecast the track within 24-48 hours. Really shows how far the science has come.

True. right now it looks to me like it might want to be just a smidge south of the CURRENT 09/18z forecast position (Could be more of a wobble, though).

So let's see how the NHC updates those positions at 11pm, the 18z forecast position might be closer to Cuba landmass. If that verifies, could be a good thing (for Florida, not for Cuba so much...)

[tolakram]

I think the east coast of Florida dodged a HUGE bullet once again for the second year in the row with this one. Just like Matthew here in West Palm Beach we probably won't get above strong-TS force winds.

Please don't say dumb things like this. Look at the model output, look at the size of the storm.

Got SLIDER to work, boy the GOES16 images are so much nicer than the old GOESE

[ScottNAtlanta]

As of 2 pm today, 54

Damn...thats half of a normal season!!!

That's more than half of the current total for the West Pacific.

Add Jose and Katia and we might be giving the WPAC a race

[BYG Jacob]

Can anybody answer this? Is it ridging or...?

Not really a short answer, it's all about global weather patterns, el nino, la nina, etc. Something you can study by using google (wind shear, hurricane, etc). This year we are warm neutral and obviously shear is running below normal, but it's also a bit of luck (or bad luck). Just a few weeks ago we were thinking this would be a slow season due to the early cold outbreaks in the midwest. Still a lot to learn about hurricane seasons.

Just something I have noticed, and I am sure the experts on here already know the reason why, but when the Pacific is churning out TC after TC, the Atlantic basin is dead and full of shear/sal. The reverse seems to be true most of the time as well, Atlantic is alive and Pacific is dead. Our atmosphere is quite interesting.

I think that's the balance of our planet. Just not enough energy for everywhere to go crazy at once.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090019
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 30 20170909
000930 2402N 07809W 6923 03190 0020 +101 +057 079064 064 /// /// 03
001000 2404N 07810W 6950 03164 0030 +096 +074 077062 062 /// /// 03
001030 2406N 07811W 6968 03142 0022 +105 +072 077061 062 /// /// 03
001100 2407N 07813W 6861 03272 0017 +104 +063 077063 064 /// /// 03
001130 2409N 07815W 6614 03581 0014 +089 +051 073064 065 /// /// 03
001200 2410N 07817W 6391 03868 0006 +079 +036 076065 066 /// /// 03
001230 2412N 07819W 6238 04063 0003 +070 +008 080066 067 /// /// 03
001300 2413N 07822W 6115 04232 0008 +058 +007 080063 064 /// /// 03
001330 2415N 07824W 5996 04397 0008 +047 +016 076063 063 /// /// 03
001400 2416N 07826W 5859 04587 9989 +047 +005 075061 064 022 001 00
001430 2418N 07828W 5677 04846 9988 +037 -037 071056 057 023 001 00
001500 2420N 07830W 5509 05089 0009 +012 -042 069055 055 025 000 03
001530 2421N 07833W 5374 05288 0249 -001 -050 067053 054 /// /// 03
001600 2422N 07835W 5285 05424 0259 -007 -066 065051 052 /// /// 03
001630 2424N 07837W 5184 05579 0272 -014 -081 066051 051 /// /// 03
001700 2426N 07839W 5050 05791 0288 -018 -112 067048 048 /// /// 03
001730 2428N 07840W 4907 06018 0305 -035 -158 064046 047 /// /// 03
001800 2430N 07841W 4780 06225 0320 -050 -115 056042 043 018 002 03
001830 2432N 07842W 4683 06386 0333 -054 -114 057040 042 018 002 00
001900 2434N 07843W 4614 06507 0343 -058 -122 060037 038 017 001 00

[WeatherGuesser]

What the heck happened to the movement of Irma? I had to send my computer to be repaired on Wednesday, last time I saw Irma in Motion was yesterday missy as she was passing Hispaniola and was approaching the Bahamas and looked to stay north of Cuba, did she take a sharp left turn?

Nope. No turn. Chugging nearly straight on.

[JaxGator]

Wow..that is really bad and you would hope at this point, that Cuba would disrupt some, but it looks to be a glancing blow imo. There looks to be nothing much to stop Irma from being at Cat 5 till landfall sadly (though that or 4 would be the same result). My relatives finally got out of the Keys yesterday and the ones in Miami are in sturdy shelters, so I'm relieved of that thank goodness.

[tolakram]

Not really a short answer, it's all about global weather patterns, el nino, la nina, etc. Something you can study by using google (wind shear, hurricane, etc). This year we are warm neutral and obviously shear is running below normal, but it's also a bit of luck (or bad luck). Just a few weeks ago we were thinking this would be a slow season due to the early cold outbreaks in the midwest. Still a lot to learn about hurricane seasons.

Just something I have noticed, and I am sure the experts on here already know the reason why, but when the Pacific is churning out TC after TC, the Atlantic basin is dead and full of shear/sal. The reverse seems to be true most of the time as well, Atlantic is alive and Pacific is dead. Our atmosphere is quite interesting.

I think that's the balance of our planet. Just not enough energy for everywhere to go crazy at once.

No, there's no relation (that I know of) to WPAC and ATL, but there is a relation to EPAC and ATL. Big EPAC storms tend to create shear over the ATL. I'm not into the balance of the planet thing, but who knows.

[BYG Jacob]

I think the east coast of Florida dodged a HUGE bullet once again for the second year in the row with this one. Just like Matthew here in West Palm Beach we probably won't get above strong-TS force winds.

That's.... not true. Irma is large enough that she will impact every part of the state. There's still hurricane warnings for you, and there's a reason for that.

[tailgater]

That's what I be seeing, 1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast now and still seems to be heading closer to west than wnw. Good for us bad for Cuba

1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast? Sure doesn't look like it.

It's not.

30 miles from coast according to Google Earth with a 40 mile plus eye. Don't focus on the cleared out portion of eye.

[kunosoura]

I think the east coast of Florida dodged a HUGE bullet once again for the second year in the row with this one. Just like Matthew here in West Palm Beach we probably won't get above strong-TS force winds.

Please don't say dumb things like this. Look at the model output, look at the size of the storm.

Got SLIDER to work, boy the GOES16 images are so much nicer than the old GOESE

[img ]https://i.imgur.com/hhjVRDw.png[/img]

Doesn't seem that particularly dumb to me. The NWS forecast supports his suggestion, at least for his locality, not necessarily whole east coast. Things can obviously change but as things stand now he's probably right.

Agree about the GOES 16. Absolutely incredible.

edited to clarify statement a bit

[stormreader]

Says it all. With the size, almost looks like a new storm. Intensification occuring now. If pressure gets to below 900mb as GFS model run, makes you wonder what wind speed would be.

[WeatherGuesser]

they will probably go with 165 mph now.. sheesh .. and it will likely get even stronger.. geezz//

Yes, I thought the 160 mph for S Fl landfall was conservative. No blame. We're in uncharted waters with this storm. 160 is Cat 5 and that should get anybody's attention. Could be a reasonable chance for this to get to 175-180 again. I'll leave it at that.

While further out, I was rooting for it to challenge Allen. Not rooting for that now, but it still might.