ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

I think the east coast of Florida dodged a HUGE bullet once again for the second year in the row with this one. Just like Matthew here in West Palm Beach we probably won't get above strong-TS force winds.

The storm IS the size of Florida, none of Florida is going to dodge much of anything with the storm. All because the eye will be a tad west doesnt mean anything at all, and doesn't mean the easy part will dodge the worst of it.

[Nederlander]

radar looks like its almost moving slightly south of west.. though it could be illusion due to the shape of the coast line..

Yeah looks to be due west using lat/lon, plus perhaps a little wobble with the eye

[JBCycloneStan]

radar looks like its almost moving slightly south of west.. though it could be illusion due to the shape of the coast line..

Yes, that and the large eye resolving. If you follow the inner eye, its actually just a little north of west. Should be easier to see from now on though with the large eye becoming clear.

[Iune]

Can anybody answer this? Is it ridging or...?

Not really a short answer, it's all about global weather patterns, el nino, la nina, etc. Something you can study by using google (wind shear, hurricane, etc). This year we are warm neutral and obviously shear is running below normal, but it's also a bit of luck (or bad luck). Just a few weeks ago we were thinking this would be a slow season due to the early cold outbreaks in the midwest. Still a lot to learn about hurricane seasons.

Just something I have noticed, and I am sure the experts on here already know the reason why, but when the Pacific is churning out TC after TC, the Atlantic basin is dead and full of shear/sal. The reverse seems to be true most of the time as well, Atlantic is alive and Pacific is dead. Our atmosphere is quite interesting.

One reason I suspect is that when the Atlantic season is active, the tropical waves which would otherwise continue westward into the Pacific form into Atlantic storms and never make it into the Pacific. When the Atlantic has hostile conditions preventing storm formation, these weak tropical disturbances continue westward and make it into the Pacific where conditions are more ideal for storm formation.

Though, that's just speculation on my part.

[galaxy401]

Wow, that new eye makes Irma look terrifying!

[Kingarabian]

Going to need a 30mb drop to get to the GFS modeled pressures.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There were a lot of people on the west coast of FL not evacuating. The west coast is much more susceptible to storm surge...especially Tampa bay

[FLpanhandle91]

Going to need a 30mb drop to get to the GFS modeled pressures.

And I don't even think that's out of the question in my opinion.

[stormreader]

radar looks like its almost moving slightly south of west.. though it could be illusion due to the shape of the coast line..

Yes, that and the large eye resolving. If you follow the inner eye, its actually just a little north of west. Should be easier to see from now on though with the large eye becoming clear.

Thats what I'm thinking, just slightly north of due west. At the risk of being redundant, I've been looking at that little south bend coming up along the Cuban coast. Good chance I think for storm to work its way into these coastal waters before actually really beginning a more north move and heading to Fl.

[Extratropical94]

11L IRMA 170909 0000 22.1N 77.2W ATL 140 924

Here we go again!

[meriland29]

Wow, that new eye makes Irma look terrifying!

As if she wasnt scary enough. The fact she is back with vengeance it seems, it saddening.

[Frank P]

they will probably go with 165 mph now.. sheesh .. and it will likely get even stronger.. geezz//

JB's sub 900mb forecast isnt looking so outrages now

Neither is the often scoffed GFS intensity forecasts during its recent model runs...

[BYG Jacob]

[img]picture[/img]

Says it all. With the size, almost looks like a new storm. Intensification occuring now. If pressure gets to below 900mb as GFS model run, makes you wonder what wind speed would be.

Her eye is huge!

[txwatcher91]

Going to need a 30mb drop to get to the GFS modeled pressures.

That’s possible with the environment this is entering. Once it clears the Cuba coast it could deepen fairly fast and it looks like it’s already back up to a cat 5.

[stormreader]

Going to need a 30mb drop to get to the GFS modeled pressures.

And I don't even think that's out of the question in my opinion.

That would be extreme. But could the storm sort of "get into the ballpark", make a run at it??? Maybe.

[meriland29]

11L IRMA 170909 0000 22.1N 77.2W ATL 140 924

Here we go again!

Could you explain? She was confirmed at 165mph, 140kt is 160mph? Maybe I am confused

[northjaxpro]

Look at Irma. WOW! She is intensifying rapidly. What a historic storm!! I have run out of superlatives for this monster!

[dgparent]

I think the east coast of Florida dodged a HUGE bullet once again for the second year in the row with this one. Just like Matthew here in West Palm Beach we probably won't get above strong-TS force winds.

Please don't say dumb things like this. Look at the model output, look at the size of the storm.

Got SLIDER to work, boy the GOES16 images are so much nicer than the old GOESE

LOL I read that comment and thought some moniker that is "TheStormExpert" it will still have huge impact on the East Coast and any shift E would be devastating considering it is getting stronger

[BYG Jacob]

Going to need a 30mb drop to get to the GFS modeled pressures.

That isn't out of question unfortunately.

[ScottNAtlanta]

radar looks like its almost moving slightly south of west.. though it could be illusion due to the shape of the coast line..

Yes, that and the large eye resolving. If you follow the inner eye, its actually just a little north of west. Should be easier to see from now on though with the large eye becoming clear.

Thats what I'm thinking, just slightly north of due west. At the risk of being redundant, I've been looking at that little south bend coming up along the Cuban coast. Good chance I think for storm to work its way into these coastal waters before actually really beginning a more north move and heading to Fl.

JB mentioned a theory earlier today that when these intense storms bend to the south they are prone to intensify once they bounce back to a more northerly track due to not having to fight what was pushing them south