ATL: IRMA - Models

[fci]

We are not in the all clear especially since the size of Irma is going to get bigger.

IF the trend west comes to fruition, this becomes more of a rain/flood event for our area.
But we know that we have to be diligent until the forecast becomes actuality.

[boca]

Yeah FCI I'll take rain over 145 mph any day but I have accordian shutters I'm all set

[Blown Away]

This cluster might be offshore soon???

[jlauderdal]

hope stift to west go because aloot people going stay my mobile homes parkl

Dont stay in your mobile home

[floridasun78]

hope stift to west go because aloot people going stay my mobile homes parkl

Dont stay in your mobile home

i am out in morning were i staying strong building that build as landlord office i going over sea trailpark for landload their not in miami but alot people are staying

[Emmett_Brown]

Not sure if anyone posted, but the 18Z GFS ensemble is kind of spread out for so close to the event; several members in the E GOM: http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090818_GEFS_large.png?38402707

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Seeing a trend west...i know people will say its impossible but I know Katrina, dennis, ivan and a bunch of other storms over the years have had once had florida west coast hook bullseye....back then they were sure of impact in tampa, fort myers area of florida but the cone kept moving with each update.


same situation??? Maybe. Just a thought. I would be paying attention anywhere from Lake Charles to Pensacola I am prepared..sheet metal over windows. Gas in Car...ready to split at 3pm tommorrow (Lutz Florida). But I Remember cones shift and those forecasts change unless its just offshore with a definitive upper level steering pattern. Forecasts are not always accurate. Yesterday miami was going to be destroyed so said the models, today its barely even in the cone.and tommorrow it may just get clouds who knows..that story could continue and it may not. No let down of guard folks stay vigilint

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[boca]

Is there a chance Irma can continue west and miss Florida completely?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is there a chance Irma can continue west and miss Florida completely?

thats what i was hinting at. Ive seen the right hooks before...the majority of the time they keep on going to Alabama or the panhandle. I would finish your preps now either way man this storm is really huge and you will feel it anywhere it lands.

[Blown Away]

Is there a chance Irma can continue west and miss Florida completely?

The W march hasn't stopped for almost 2 days, no reason not to think it continues until we see some stability. Kinda surprised the models didn't pickup on the strong ridging...

[MrJames]

18z GFS Ensembles. Further west.

[hurricaneCW]

There's only so far west Irma could go given the upscale pattern, we could see a tick or two west which could be even worse for western Florida but I can't see the state dodging this.

She's also begun to slow down, which is a clear indication that a NW turn is probably 12-18 hrs away.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is there a chance Irma can continue west and miss Florida completely?

The W march hasn't stopped for almost 2 days, no reason not to think it continues until we see some stability. Kinda surprised the models didn't pickup on the strong ridging...

thats funny my house was not in the cone yesterday. Not trying to start a fight but the cone corrects itself constantly. to say the cone is all knowing all powerful 72 hours is out is contrary to all facts and observations i have made in my 14 years watching this forum.

[boca]

Aric Dunn says that Irma is closing in on the break in the ridge so he usually is spot on

[Mouton]

This cluster might be offshore soon???

It is a cluster for sure. I cannot fathom a thing about the potential path strength or arrival times. I notice it was supposed to enter south state as a 4/5 than go to a TS as it exited. Did they move the alps to Orlando. Seriously after playing dodge ball for two days now we are going back home to Amelia island. Sorry just had to vent

[GTStorm]

Is there a chance Irma can continue west and miss Florida completely?

The W march hasn't stopped for almost 2 days, no reason not to think it continues until we see some stability. Kinda surprised the models didn't pickup on the strong ridging...

thats funny my house was not in the cone yesterday. Not trying to start a fight but the cone corrects itself constantly. to say the cone is all knowing all powerful 72 hours is out is contrary to all facts and observations i have made in my 14 years watching this forum.

36 hours ago the cone said that Savannah was going to get the brunt of a landfalling Cat 3 storm. Now it looks like we might get no more than a good summer thunderstorm. Go figure.

They really mean what they say when they point out the 175+ mile error in the 4-5 day timeframe of the cone. Folks tend to forget that when looking at the graphic...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

mmm..alot of the ensembles take it over cuba. I pray for our sake in florida that is the case. Cuba may bog it down a bit i would think.

[Steve]

Seeing a trend west...i know people will say its impossible but I know Katrina, dennis, ivan and a bunch of other storms over the years have had once had florida west coast hook bullseye....back then they were sure of impact in tampa, fort myers area of florida but the cone kept moving with each update.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It is impossible IMHO. So I'm going to say it.

[facemane]

Seeing a trend west...i know people will say its impossible but I know Katrina, dennis, ivan and a bunch of other storms over the years have had once had florida west coast hook bullseye....back then they were sure of impact in tampa, fort myers area of florida but the cone kept moving with each update.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It is impossible IMHO. So I'm going to say it.

yep, no cyclone is going to run directly into that.

[Steve]

The W march hasn't stopped for almost 2 days, no reason not to think it continues until we see some stability. Kinda surprised the models didn't pickup on the strong ridging...

thats funny my house was not in the cone yesterday. Not trying to start a fight but the cone corrects itself constantly. to say the cone is all knowing all powerful 72 hours is out is contrary to all facts and observations i have made in my 14 years watching this forum.

36 hours ago the cone said that Savannah was going to get the brunt of a landfalling Cat 3 storm. Now it looks like we might get no more than a good summer thunderstorm. Go figure.

They really mean what they say when they point out the 175+ mile error in the 4-5 day timeframe of the cone. Folks tend to forget that when looking at the graphic...

Be thankful if y'all end up lucking out. I wouldn't say afternoon thunderstorm though. Depending on where it is in relation, no doubt you will get feeder moisture and probably TS conditions. We got a couple of bands and a few inches of rain with Hurricane Harvey, and I'll take that ll day over what Houston, Port Arthur, et al faced and are facing. Look at some of the radar derived products and satellite products. Not that they're necessarily going to be right, but with three days to go:

NAM 12km 18Z - As Irma comes north, she becomes northern weighted and interacts with the front. You get spread out energy on the NE side from an onshore perspective. There is a lot of energy with Irma as a potential Cat 4 or 5.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

HWRF comes through with a few hard bands
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=500

GFS 12Z - Not the greatest "hurricane model" but you see the depiction
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=598

GFS 12Z IR Depcition
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

Take from me looking at this is it looks to come through in a matter of a few hours that far north. That's a good thing because we really don't need a slow moving storm at this point.