ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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johngaltfla
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8641 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:52 pm

NDG wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:

That's more than half of the current total for the West Pacific.

Add Jose and Katia and we might be giving the WPAC a race


Total Atlantic Ace is past each of those two basins.


#WeWon

#Winning

Uh, dang. :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8642 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:53 pm

I've got more work to do gang, to those prepping, good luck, to those driving good luck, to those who think this is no big deal: AMF.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8643 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:54 pm

stormreader wrote:Just saw pics on national tv, been waiting for them, from the British Virgin Islands. British Virgins caught direct hit. Y'all, incredible. Maybe someone could post them.


lots already posted here the past day or two. Probably best to now focus on the impending situation for Florida...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8644 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:55 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO


or a slight nne to ne wobble and MIami is in the right front eyewall..


Of course that's possible, but no model guidance even suggesting that as an option anymore. As always you must watch closely until it's passed...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8645 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:56 pm

So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8646 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:56 pm

tolakram wrote:
Blown Away wrote:NHC maxed their mid range error rate with Irma and Florida... NHC going to take some heat from public opinion, unfairly...


You're going to have to explain this one to me, with diagrams. This link might help: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line
Yeah, the NHC has basically predicted Irma's track to the forecast point for Irma. There's no feasible way to blame them.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8647 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:57 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO


or a slight nne to ne wobble and MIami is in the right front eyewall..


Of course that's possible, but no model guidance even suggesting that as an option anymore. As always you must watch closely until it's passed...


models dont forecast wobbles.. it happppppeeennnnssssss every time.. a wobble here a wobble there all not forecast..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8648 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:57 pm

NDG wrote:So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

Yup, NHC went with 140 Knots.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8649 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:57 pm

Does anyone have a image of the most recent recon pass?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8650 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:58 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8651 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:58 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
NDG wrote:So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

Yup, NHC went with 140 Knots.


Sorry, hard to keep up when averaging 4 hrs of sleep this week starts catching up. :(
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8652 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:58 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO


or a slight nne to ne wobble and MIami is in the right front eyewall..


Of course that's possible, but no model guidance even suggesting that as an option anymore. As always you must watch closely until it's passed...


Storms like this one, the record breakers, deserve the extra caution. Until it passes, I'm bracing for the worst. I'm breathing easier tonight than yesterday, but you can't let your guard down with this one.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8653 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:59 pm

NDG wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
NDG wrote:So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

Yup, NHC went with 140 Knots.


Sorry, hard to keep up when averaging 4 hrs of sleep this week starts catching up. :(

I feel you there, don't worry about it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8654 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:59 pm

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=26.82;-79.4 ... /21&m=icon
Heavy duty wind driven waves 40 plus ft.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8655 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:00 pm

The chatroom is crowded this evening for those who want to join.

See this post: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=111692
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#8656 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:02 pm

Taking a break to the plane
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8657 Postby jdjaguar » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:02 pm

NDG wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
NDG wrote:So Cat 5 again?

URNT12 KNHC 090010
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/23:52:10Z
B. 22 deg 08 min N
077 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2440 m
D. 145 kt
E. 343 deg 19 nm
F. 079 deg 154 kt
G. 343 deg 21 nm
H. 925 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 19 C / 3051 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 154 KT 343 / 21 NM 23:45:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 9 KT
;

Yup, NHC went with 140 Knots.


Sorry, hard to keep up when averaging 4 hrs of sleep this week starts catching up. :(

4? I've been on 3 hour cycles..jk
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8658 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:02 pm

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906321280810590208




Mets watching ADT Dvorak: 6.2 --> 7.2 in 3.5 hours http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... ist-PG.txt … Hurricane #Irma symmetric cloud canopy cooling rapidly.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8659 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:03 pm

Not buying the pool bit. Might be OK for a normal heavy rain, or maybe even a TS. But predictions here are for 20-30" of rain, maybe more and who knows how much storm surge in many areas. Draining a couple hundred gallons out of a pool ain't gonna make no difference.
Last edited by WeatherGuesser on Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8660 Postby dgparent » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:03 pm

FYI for those of you with DirecTv they are starting the storm mix channel as noon tomorrow which I believe is a mix of local area TV stations, they are on channels 361-1 and 361-2
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