ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8661 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:05 pm

well it needs to start turning back wnw to stay off shore. another couple hours of this and it will be onshore.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8662 Postby jdjaguar » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:06 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Not buying the pool bit. Might be OK for a normal heavy rain, or maybe even a TS. But predictions here are for 20-30" of rain, maybe more and who knows how much storm surge in many areas. Draining a couple hundred gallons out of a pool ain't gonna make no difference.

Disagree.
If you are strictly going to be taking on 8-12 inches of rain, it is only PRUDENT to pre-drain the pool by a like amount.

Ow, personally, I put the pool furniture in the garage, not weighted on the bottom.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8663 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:08 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well it needs to start turning back wnw to stay off shore. another couple hours of this and it will be onshore.



Looking at the slider, it looks like it's about to plow into Cuba. What did I miss the last few hours?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8664 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:08 pm

Uh oh!

 https://twitter.com/yukonblizzard/status/906322437234716672




Steven Kelley‏ @yukonblizzard 4m4 minutes ago
Replying to @RyanMaue

The Dvorak satellite view is even more dramatic visually
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8665 Postby Michele B » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:09 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Look at Irma. WOW! She is intensifying rapidly. What a historic storm!! I have run out of superlatives for this monster!


While we're hunkered down under it, while it blows our world apart overhead in the next few days, I bet I can come up with a few adjectives to call her.....
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Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8666 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:09 pm

per radar southern eyewall is completely onshore now.. that will halt any further deepening .. good turn of events. for florida... not Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8667 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:09 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well it needs to start turning back wnw to stay off shore. another couple hours of this and it will be onshore.


Aric, do you think if that happens, if it actually makes landfall in Cuba for a few hours before the turn, will it end up moving even farther up the west coast of Fla?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8668 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:10 pm

Yep. Landfall in Cuba coming. I wonder how many hours it will be inside Cuba?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#8669 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:10 pm

Did I see 145Kts from the Dropsonde??? That would say 165 MPH.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8670 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:per radar southern eyewall is completely onshore now.. that will halt any further deepening .. good turn of events. for florida... not Cuba.


Agreed. Good News for Florida! But poor Cuba :(
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8671 Postby JaxGator » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:11 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Look at Irma. WOW! She is intensifying rapidly. What a historic storm!! I have run out of superlatives for this monster!


Yeah, she's really taking off now. Once the new eyewall took over, bam. Might be a glancing blow to Cuba or its barrier Islands near Irma's center, until it makes the turn or starts to we'll know. Btw, the NWS of both Jax and Melbourne still forecast hurricane conditions for North and Central Florida for now and guessing that Irma is a Cat 5 now, maybe thw winds might be greater depending on any shifts... Still though, the Keys and South Florida are just going to get hammered, but thankfully my relatives that live in the Keys got out yesterday.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8672 Postby KBBOCA » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:11 pm

Could someone please post a saved recent Cuban radar loop? Thanks
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8673 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:12 pm

TWC forecasting 100mph gusts between Sun AM through PM in Ft Lauderdale.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8674 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:13 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well it needs to start turning back wnw to stay off shore. another couple hours of this and it will be onshore.


Aric, do you think if that happens, if it actually makes landfall in Cuba for a few hours before the turn, will it end up moving even farther up the west coast of Fla?


it has to either move slower than forecast which would make it turn more farther east.. or the weakness needs to develop faster to allow the turn to happen sooner. we shall see. this is where models do poorly on shar angled turns.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8675 Postby norva » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:13 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:per radar southern eyewall is completely onshore now.. that will halt any further deepening .. good turn of events. for florida... not Cuba.


Agreed. Good News for Florida! But poor Cuba :(


At this point, I don't think it helps Florida much, I don't see it weakening much before moving up, or if it does re-intensifying. Unless it just stops right in Cuba and turns for a while
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8676 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:14 pm

Now that the eye has landed in Cuba. Are we talking about 12 hours over Cuba?
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8677 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:14 pm

The thing about these Hurricanes that are forecasted to make the famous poleward turn is that they could go a little to the right of the guidance, if we see the Euro stop its westward trend tonight I wouldn't doubt if that means that it will ultimately track a little to the right of the forecast track like they always seem to do. Matthew last year was a good example. SE FL don't let your guard down just yet for even stronger winds than have been forecasted for your area already.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8678 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:17 pm

norva wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:per radar southern eyewall is completely onshore now.. that will halt any further deepening .. good turn of events. for florida... not Cuba.


Agreed. Good News for Florida! But poor Cuba :(


At this point, I don't think it helps Florida much, I don't see it weakening much before moving up, or if it does re-intensifying. Unless it just stops right in Cuba and turns for a while


From my non-pro memory of these systems, it's going to depend on how long is stays over land. Plenty of moisture, but enough land friction to disrupt strengthening in the short term at minimum.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8679 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:17 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Always follow NHC, but a slight W shift and Irma's eye technically could miss the Keys to the W and possibly the peninsula. JMHO


or a slight nne to ne wobble and MIami is in the right front eyewall..


Of course that's possible, but no model guidance even suggesting that as an option anymore. As always you must watch closely until it's passed...

I don't think the models show wobbles. Just like we see it wobbled north then correct itself west it could wobble east then wobble back west easily especially when interacting with land. It'll be interesting for sure.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8680 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:18 pm

Last edited by supercane4867 on Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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