ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

:roll:

[tw eet]https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/906339796003573761[/tweet]

look bit too high wind for miami?

Alarmist mode atTWC. She finally met her match in Cuba, Cat 2 probably now... Ernesto 2.0

Recon is in the storm, maybe check out some facts before making claims like this?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You can see how she slows to a crawl as she landfalls in Cuba:

But if she spins long enough wouldn't the mountains in the SE part of Cuba disrupt the outflow a bit?

Absolutely. It should create some kind of disruption. I feel like the core is what is most important though to truly see the effect from high mountains. The pressure is still very low even on the leeward side that the bands get quickly regain strength again.

[jasons2k]

See a crack in the NW quadrant. Good news. I think Cubas terrain in this part of the island is the highest it has to offer, but its enough to damage the system a bit. Every little bit counts.

It is not, please review a topographical map of Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is flying over land right now those islands.. it can get another pass in since it stalled before making ladfall..

[FLpanhandle91]

Anyone else seeing a slight WNW jog in the last few frames of GOES16?

[1900hurricane]

See a crack in the NW quadrant. Good news. I think Cubas terrain in this part of the island is the highest it has to offer, but its enough to damage the system a bit. Every little bit counts.

It is not, please review a topographical map of Cuba.

Based on the context of the rest of the sentence and the following one, it looks like it might be a typo (is vs isn't).

[Big Easy Breeze]

You can clearly see it was/has some southerly component to it's movement west. Hold a pen on the start of the loop. Then watch as the loop advances. You can see there is a southerly component. You can also simply look at the latitude markers and see it has moved about .2 south.

My real questions is. Can the size of the storm and intensity of Irma affect the ridging over her and cause the models to be less accurate?

[Aric Dunn]

You can c;early see it was/has some southerly component to it's movement west. Hold a pen on the start of the loop. Then watch as the loop advances. You can see there is a southerly component. You can also simply look at the latitude markers and see it has moved about .2 south.

Please when there is recon flying.. dont use satellite for motion ! recon does not lie.. thank you

[SEASON_CANCELED]

must be swamp gas. no land interactions teamplayersblue.

[galaxy401]

And now we find ourselves in another debate just like yesterday. 24 hours ago, it was all about the EWRC, now it's all about Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

well it has about 3 hours to make it to the next forecast point to the wnw.. better start moving..

[Aric Dunn]

And now we find ourselves in another debate just like yesterday. 24 hours ago, it was all about the EWRC, now it's all about Cuba.

Thats how the cookie crumbles..

[tarheelprogrammer]

Um, it just took a wobble north, or am I seeing things?

[znel52]

Irma has slammed on the brakes. About to make the turn more northerly.

[gatorcane]

Um, it just took a wobble north, or am I seeing things?

No, definite wobble north. Latest frame in on this loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

ok Im going to started throwing things here.. "bangs head against the wall"

[1900hurricane]

Anyone else seeing a slight WNW jog in the last few frames of GOES16?

As I hyper-overanalyze the Mesoscale 1 window from GOES-16, it does appear that there may be some kind of north bounce, but I don't have much confidence in such an observation with the convection contracting inwards slightly unevenly. At this point, I'm waiting for a recon fix.

[SoupBone]

And now we find ourselves in another debate just like yesterday. 24 hours ago, it was all about the EWRC, now it's all about Cuba.

The CUBA interaction is a real legit debate. The longer is stays there, could lend itself to track and intensity implications down the road....or not. We'll just have to wait and see tonight.

[tallywx]

You can c;early see it was/has some southerly component to it's movement west. Hold a pen on the start of the loop. Then watch as the loop advances. You can see there is a southerly component. You can also simply look at the latitude markers and see it has moved about .2 south.

Please when there is recon flying.. dont use satellite for motion ! recon does not lie.. thank you

Very well, recon doesn't lie. Here are the last two recon fixes. South of due west.

[Michele B]

And now we find ourselves in another debate just like yesterday. 24 hours ago, it was all about the EWRC, now it's all about Cuba.

Got water - check
Got gas - check
House boarded - check
Got people & pet Food - check
Tarps, rope, duct tape - check
Yard cleared of debris - check
All preps completed - check
Ready to take on Irma - check

Sounds like nothing left TO DO but debate!!!!!!