ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8901 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:15 pm

pcolaman wrote:Did they make the cone wider all the way from the bottom to the top or is it just me?


Cone is a fixed size during the year and represents the average track error at each forecast point. It's actually a circle around each one. Every year it gets a little smaller as the NHC and model skills improve.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8902 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:16 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
pcolaman wrote:Did they make the cone wider all the way from the bottom to the top or is it just me?


Haven't seen cone yet.



new cone not much better for tampa shifted slightly. The cone is a big letdown. more interested in EURO run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8903 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:16 pm

This thing is crazy! It's like Irma doesn't want to make landfall anywhere if she is not a category 5. Let's hope for the best in Cuba, it will be a very long and hard night for them.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8904 Postby Big Easy Breeze » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:17 pm

tolakram wrote:
Big Easy Breeze wrote:Look, tropical weather is not an exact science, as far as how tropical systems will move, or where exactly they will move. Intensity forecasting just the same. The most intelligent professionals will even tell you that. Look at Jose. The intensity and track if Jose is getting lost with the proximity Irma to the U.S. coast line. Jose has been doing things unexpected. Expect change and unpredictable movement and intensity fluctuations.


Track forecasting is pretty darn god, it's not a mystery. Intensity ... not so good.


Within 72 hours. We all know that. Outside of 72, there is a wide margin of uncertainty. That is the reason for the cone.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8905 Postby Jelff » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:19 pm

I wanted to post a Google + GIS link to a map showing lots of info about open FEMA shelters. Earlier this evening the map worked fine. Now it does not work at all.

Apparently either the FEMA ArcGIS server crashed hard or the data was moved.

I have searched online for a working map showing open FEMA shelters but no joy. While I am safe and sound many states removed from Irma, I do want to help by producing map links.

Does anyone have a working map link that displays open FEMA shelters?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8906 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:19 pm

Holy crap , Just saw that Jose is up to 155, almost a cat 5(and the storm2k site shows it as one). Take a picture of that as you probably wont ever see it on the site again. 2 cat 5s at once in the atlantic basin...who poured the go go juice!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8907 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:20 pm

pcolaman wrote:Did they make the cone wider all the way from the bottom to the top or is it just me?

I don't think the cone changes except it's bigger at 5 days than 3 but they did extend the hurricane warnings for both sides of Florida up.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8908 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:20 pm

tolakram wrote:
Big Easy Breeze wrote:Look, tropical weather is not an exact science, as far as how tropical systems will move, or where exactly they will move. Intensity forecasting just the same. The most intelligent professionals will even tell you that. Look at Jose. The intensity and track if Jose is getting lost with the proximity Irma to the U.S. coast line. Jose has been doing things unexpected. Expect change and unpredictable movement and intensity fluctuations.


Track forecasting is pretty darn god, it's not a mystery. Intensity ... not so good.


I'd say from a macro overview with Irma, yeah. From the perspective of those on the ground in the potentially affected errors, they'd like more surety in this case.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8909 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:20 pm

Michele B wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
look bit too high wind for miami?


Those are gusts, aren't they?

it dont say it gust?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8910 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:21 pm

At what point do we ignore model plots and look at current conditions?

I see posts saying the steering is collapsing and it's pinballing off the coast...?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8911 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:22 pm

guys...the media hype stuff for ratings. More at 11. People tune in. Its a no brainer and they don't like to look wrong. They will literally keep people on the ground until the last minute...even if they are in the wrong location (Miami)
Last edited by SEASON_CANCELED on Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8912 Postby Big Easy Breeze » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:22 pm

Steve wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Big Easy Breeze wrote:Look, tropical weather is not an exact science, as far as how tropical systems will move, or where exactly they will move. Intensity forecasting just the same. The most intelligent professionals will even tell you that. Look at Jose. The intensity and track if Jose is getting lost with the proximity Irma to the U.S. coast line. Jose has been doing things unexpected. Expect change and unpredictable movement and intensity fluctuations.


Track forecasting is pretty darn god, it's not a mystery. Intensity ... not so good.


I'd say from a macro overview with Irma, yeah. From the perspective of those on the ground in the potentially affected errors, they'd like more surety in this case.


No question. But it is what it is.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8913 Postby nascarfan999 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:
jasons wrote:PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

I'd say she's slowed since that was typed


Agreed not sure where they get that speed from unless they are not counting the last couple of hours.


I THINK (not certain) that I've heard before that the NHC movement is based on a 12 hour average. Can anyone confirm?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8914 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:22 pm

tallywx wrote:
nascarfan999 wrote:
tallywx wrote:
Very well, recon doesn't lie. Here are the last two recon fixes. South of due west.



Another view of it, taking the TT map and putting it into MS Paint. I then drew a black box along the latitude line. Comparing the top line of the box to the recon line confirms that the movement has a south component to it.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/abqu7sv.png[/ig]


Recon just flew through the center again. I drew a white circle at the location of the wind shift. South of west yet again. We'll see if the new fix confirms.

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/tutj2g7zd/irma2.png[/ig]



ok your point .. ?

the fact of the matter is that someone dont remember who started this whole debacle said look at satellite its moving SW ! ... or something. .. while the eye was contracting when it nearly looked like it dropped a degree. recon the entire time showed west motion ( yes west , west ranges from 258.75 - 281.25 if you want to get technical) the very subtle "just south of west" motion you would not be able to notice on satellite especially with all the cloud degree in the eye.

but anyway back to relavent conversation..

:)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8915 Postby HDGator » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:24 pm

I'm very surprised the NHC again shifted the forecast track west and highlighted it in the discussion. We know from the recent series of forecasts that the storm would be reaching an inflection point at the Cuban coast.

I'm not a professional met so my opinion is solely based on 35+ years of watching storms in the Atlantic with the available technological microscopes. I don't think storms of this strength typically move in smooth curves. They wobble and weave to end up where they need to be. You often see slowing and a wobble to the left when they restart a sustained movement to the right in a new direction. That appears to be exactly where we sit with Irma with the outcome being uncertain.

Some models are sending her into the Cuban coast but the official forecast has kept her skirting the coast.

I'm not sure it's responsible to reinforce a westward drift in forecast as everyone goes to bed at 11pm when they may wake up to a surprise in the morning.

Just the ramblings of an old man yelling at clouds... You can roast me later when Irma is deep into Cuba losing strength instead of skirting W-NW up the coast towards her northward turn.

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edit for spelling
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8916 Postby wx247 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:24 pm

15,000-35,000 remain in the FL Keys per the latest estimate, even though many many more have left. This is per Rep. Carlos Curbelo on NBC 6 in Miami. This is a worrying figure based on the latest track from the NHC.
Last edited by wx247 on Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8917 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:25 pm

Big Easy Breeze wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Big Easy Breeze wrote:Look, tropical weather is not an exact science, as far as how tropical systems will move, or where exactly they will move. Intensity forecasting just the same. The most intelligent professionals will even tell you that. Look at Jose. The intensity and track if Jose is getting lost with the proximity Irma to the U.S. coast line. Jose has been doing things unexpected. Expect change and unpredictable movement and intensity fluctuations.


Track forecasting is pretty darn god, it's not a mystery. Intensity ... not so good.


Within 72 hours. We all know that. Outside of 72, there is a wide margin of uncertainty. That is the reason for the cone.


Show me how the NHC has been bad past 72 hours. :)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IR ... ne_no_line

I'll take this accuracy any day.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8918 Postby nascarfan999 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:25 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Holy crap , Just saw that Jose is up to 155, almost a cat 5(and the storm2k site shows it as one). Take a picture of that as you probably wont ever see it on the site again. 2 cat 5s at once in the atlantic basin...who poured the go go juice!


Purely for preservation purposes, although as mentioned Jose is still technically a Cat 4...

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8919 Postby ftolmsteen » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:29 pm

Is Irma beginning to ride along cuban coastline? Seems like it's going just north of west last few frames.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#8920 Postby Shawee » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:29 pm

Steve wrote:Agree there is some disagreement. Regardless of paint on a satellite, the recon will have the exact coordinates. I can't read that small on the map and didn't feel like copying and pasting it in. NHC measures motion over so many hours of time. So while something may temporarily be south of a prior recon pass, the general motion is going to be what they say it is. Yeah, it's tied up in those northern Cuban islands and reefs, but I recommend continued observation. We're within a half day of initial impacts and then it's gonna get real bad. That's the simplest way to put what's unfolding. Tomorrow's visibles should bring it all into perspective for anyone doubting Irma.


Could not agree more Steve. Wobble-casting can cause one to lose perspective. I always go back to water vapor loops as they are much better to see fronts, ridges, dry air, etc. Looking forward to the visible as well. I certainly don't think we are out of the woods yet, and I'm not even in the cone. Wasn't for that 2005 one yet at this point in the game either. Not comparing, just don't want folks to loose sight of the forest for the trees.
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