ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

Is Irma beginning to ride along cuban coastline? Seems like it's going just north of west last few frames.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

Probably, it should ride the coast for about 24 hours.

[PTPatrick]

Track forecasting is pretty darn god, it's not a mystery. Intensity ... not so good.

Within 72 hours. We all know that. Outside of 72, there is a wide margin of uncertainty. That is the reason for the cone.

Show me how the NHC has been bad past 72 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IR ... ne_no_line

I'll take this accuracy any day.

THey should have stopped on Tuesday while they were ahead before they chased the models out to a East coast scrape and back kidding. they do a great job. this stuff is just hard. if it wasn't everybody would do it.

[SunnyThoughts]

Can't believe hurricane watch all the way up to Tallahassee now. My gosh.

[Bamagirl2408]

Another view of it, taking the TT map and putting it into MS Paint. I then drew a black box along the latitude line. Comparing the top line of the box to the recon line confirms that the movement has a south component to it.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/abqu7sv.png[/ig]

Recon just flew through the center again. I drew a white circle at the location of the wind shift. South of west yet again. We'll see if the new fix confirms.

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/tutj2g7zd/irma2.png[/ig]

ok your point .. ?

the fact of the matter is that someone dont remember who started this whole debacle said look at satellite its moving SW ! ... or something. .. while the eye was contracting when it nearly looked like it dropped a degree. recon the entire time showed west motion ( yes west , west ranges from 258.75 - 281.25 if you want to get technical) the very subtle "just south of west" motion you would not be able to notice on satellite especially with all the cloud degree in the eye.

but anyway back to relavent conversation..

I think honestly I said it. Only based on coordinates from last 2 advisories on loss of one degree of latitude. Im usually a "looker" not a "poster" here. I think that maybe safer:)

[johngaltfla]

Did they make the cone wider all the way from the bottom to the top or is it just me?

What I thougjt I saw was Tallahassee in it (or maybe already was) and Miami maybe barely in?

More like a map of I-75. Right through Brandon-Tampa.

[johngaltfla]

15,000-35,000 remain in the FL Keys per the latest estimate, even though many many more have left. This is per Rep. Carlos Curbelo on NBC 6 in Miami. This is a worrying figure based on the latest track from the NHC.

There ain't no cure for stupid.

[sbcc]

I wanted to post a Google + GIS link to a map showing lots of info about open FEMA shelters. Earlier this evening the map worked fine. Now it does not work at all.

Apparently either the FEMA ArcGIS server crashed hard or the data was moved.

I have searched online for a working map showing open FEMA shelters but no joy. While I am safe and sound many states removed from Irma, I do want to help by producing map links.

Does anyone have a working map link that displays open FEMA shelters?

Maybe this will help:

https://services.femadata.com/arcgis/rest/services/Shelters/FEMA_Open_Shelters/FeatureServer/0

http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?url=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.femadata.com%2Farcgis%2Frest%2Fservices%2FShelters%2FFEMA_Open_Shelters%2FFeatureServer%2F0&source=sd

ETA: 38 total shelters, Georgia and both Carolinas plus one in Washington State for whatever reason.

[p1nheadlarry]

Can't believe hurricane watch all the way up to Tallahassee now. My gosh.

Yup, saw that. I'm ready for her worst.

[PTPatrick]

15,000-35,000 remain in the FL Keys per the latest estimate, even though many many more have left. This is per Rep. Carlos Curbelo on NBC 6 in Miami. This is a worrying figure based on the latest track from the NHC.

There ain't no cure for stupid.

I am trying to imagine myself beiing a typical Key Wester, used to storms, thinking they were going to be on the clean side of this. Not saying it would have been a good decision, but I can see how with all the east coast hype the last couple days, that somebody might have thought, why would I evac towards the eye. Of course now they are screwed. If I was seeing these trends tonight in the keys the kids and car would have been packed and I'd be in the first shelter on dry land in Dade county I could find.

[craptacular]

Waiting for third VDM from current mission ... went through eye ~50 minutes ago according to HDOBs. Here are the first two, for reference (oldest first).

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:10Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 23:52:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°08'N 77°12'W (22.1333N 77.2W)
B. Center Fix Location: 68 statute miles (110 km) to the NE (41°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,440m (8,005ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 145kts (~ 166.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 154kts (From between the ENE and E at ~ 177.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 925mb (27.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 154kts (~ 177.2mph) which was observed 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) from the flight level center at 23:45:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 190° at 9kts (From the S at 10mph)


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 2:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 24
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 1:36:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°07'N 77°32'W (22.1167N 77.5333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 55 statute miles (89 km) to the NNE (26°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,454m (8,051ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 139kts (~ 160.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 127kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 146.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 926mb (27.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 154kts (~ 177.2mph) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NNE (32°) from the flight level center at 23:45:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 133kts (~ 153.1mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) from the flight level center at 1:44:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 60° at 5kts (From the ENE at 6mph)

[Aric Dunn]

I just dont see this maintaining for 24 hours sitting mostly over cuba as some of the models say. if the core collapses there is unlikely enough time to start all over building a core before landfall and shear... does not mean it will not be a dangerous hurricane. just saying that is a lot of land to transverse all the while keeping a solid structure. now if it wobbles a little more offshore then game on.. but as is just dont see it.. of course anything is possible.. but does not means its likely..

[Hammy]

I wanted to post a Google + GIS link to a map showing lots of info about open FEMA shelters. Earlier this evening the map worked fine. Now it does not work at all.

Apparently either the FEMA ArcGIS server crashed hard or the data was moved.

I have searched online for a working map showing open FEMA shelters but no joy. While I am safe and sound many states removed from Irma, I do want to help by producing map links.

Does anyone have a working map link that displays open FEMA shelters?

Maybe this will help:

https://services.femadata.com/arcgis/rest/services/Shelters/FEMA_Open_Shelters/FeatureServer/0

http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?url=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.femadata.com%2Farcgis%2Frest%2Fservices%2FShelters%2FFEMA_Open_Shelters%2FFeatureServer%2F0&source=sd

ETA: 38 total shelters, Georgia and both Carolinas plus one in Washington State for whatever reason.

Fire evacuation I believe.

[Jelff]

I wanted to post a Google + GIS link to a map showing lots of info about open FEMA shelters. Earlier this evening the map worked fine. Now it does not work at all.

Apparently either the FEMA ArcGIS server crashed hard or the data was moved.

I have searched online for a working map showing open FEMA shelters but no joy. While I am safe and sound many states removed from Irma, I do want to help by producing map links.

Does anyone have a working map link that displays open FEMA shelters?

Maybe this will help:

https://services.femadata.com/arcgis/rest/services/Shelters/FEMA_Open_Shelters/FeatureServer/0

http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?url=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.femadata.com%2Farcgis%2Frest%2Fservices%2FShelters%2FFEMA_Open_Shelters%2FFeatureServer%2F0&source=sd

ETA: 38 total shelters, Georgia and both Carolinas plus one in Washington State for whatever reason.

Thanks but.....

I already tried your first link. Here is my call for one tile (using that url) in the Tampa area where lots of FEMA shelters are open.

https://services.femadata.com/arcgis/re ... 6094777816

That call produces a gray tile with no shelter symbology.

Your first link is to a MapServer layer. Your second link refers to a FeatureServer layer.

I clicked your second link. That link does not display any open FEMA shelters in FL. Does that link work differently for you?

[HDGator]

I just dont see this maintaining for 24 hours sitting mostly over cuba as some of the models say. if the core collapses there is unlikely enough time to start all over building a core before landfall and shear... does not mean it will not be a dangerous hurricane. just saying that is a lot of land to transverse all the while keeping a solid structure. now if it wobbles a little more offshore then game on.. but as is just dont see it.. of course anything is possible.. but does not means its likely..

What's your opinion if she skirts the coast to the W-NW while keeping the eye in warm water?

I think she's make that move now based on the new convection firing to the W-NW and NW along with the majority of guidance that shows this move. But I'm not an expert just a long-time watcher.

[FLpanhandle91]

I just dont see this maintaining for 24 hours sitting mostly over cuba as some of the models say. if the core collapses there is unlikely enough time to start all over building a core before landfall and shear... does not mean it will not be a dangerous hurricane. just saying that is a lot of land to transverse all the while keeping a solid structure. now if it wobbles a little more offshore then game on.. but as is just dont see it.. of course anything is possible.. but does not means its likely..

I believe its closest brush with Cuba has already passed. It seems to moving exactly parallel to the coastline currently. At this trajectory, it would gradually move away from the coast after maybe 5 to 6 hours. Thoughts? This is after seriously and meticulously analyzing each individual frame of GOES16 multiple times.

[Steve]

15,000-35,000 remain in the FL Keys per the latest estimate, even though many many more have left. This is per Rep. Carlos Curbelo on NBC 6 in Miami. This is a worrying figure based on the latest track from the NHC.

There ain't no cure for stupid.

It's whatever. I understand if you have maybe a tropical storm, cat 1 or maybe even a 2 coming in and feel like living the dream. This isn't that type of situation. I hope as many people as possible survive with stories to tell as 150+mph winds plus raging water tends to drown a lot of people. I don't want to go all hype, but we could see a legitimate death toll if people jacked around and ignored the threat.

[JtSmarts]

Maybe she'll pull a Hurricane Kate of 1985? Kate traveled along the northern coast of Cuba and barely missed a beat. According to wikipedia "The hurricane maintained its well-defined eye while moving across northern Cuba, and about 12 hours after making landfall, it emerged into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico just east of Havana". Also I've watched some footage of the 1985 season on youtube, and the satellite showed that Kate truly kept a well defined eye through her whole trek.

[PTPatrick]

Agreed. There are just so many unknowns, and now GFS has pulled back toward Marathon so maybe there is some reason to think its going to pull back off coast soon. I still cant even tell if its wobbling more onshore or starting the turn. But every mile will be key. The only thing right now that has me in the camp of it will maintain cat 4 or higher is simply that models are currently showing it. I know that storms "can" maintain or even gain near or skirting coasts in the islands and Caribbean particularly , but its usually for a matter of hours, not a day.

with respect to core. Georges road the entire Cuban coast, mountains and all, and maintained a core. SO there is precedence. He was a cat 1 for most of the length...the kicker, he did the crazy thing where he was a 2 again basically still on land right as it emerged.

[Shell Mound]

The southward bias has likely ended. Note the expansion of outflow to the north and the increasing asymmetry of the central dense overcast on recent satellite imagery. The eye is not as central to the convection and is more toward the western edge of the coldest cloud tops. This indicates the system is being pulled northward over time, that Irma is encountering the edge of stronger upper-level westerlies over the Florida peninsula and north of Cuba. The recent wobbling of the eye along the archipelago and paralleling of the northern coast of Cuba bolsters this hypothesis. The European model was the first to suggest a landfall in Cuba and was correct in its southerly solution, but now the days of "south, south, young gal" have ended. A long-term west-northwest movement is likely resuming now, and soon the long-anticipated turn to the north-northwest should commence. As a result, confidence in the landfall location in Florida should begin to increase. Note that the 00Z GFS has stopped shifting and is now showing a more consistent landfall location and heading that is nearly identical to 12Z's. This means that a landfall around Big Pine Key and then in the Marco Island vicinity is looking increasingly likely. As I mentioned earlier, strengthening is likely over the Straits of Florida, and indeed the new GFS joins the European model in intensifying Irma even past the Keys, into Everglades National Park. Unfortunately, a Category-5 landfall in the Keys appears to be in the cards.

For reference, click here.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Does the core look to be opening up to anyone else?