ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

This should quiet the "missing Florida" and "east coast is in the clear" posts.

[Jevo]

My Face When.... I realize I now have to stay awake for another 2 hours because of the GFS shenanigans.....

[floridasun78]

GFS is east at 30 hours and 924mb vs. 913mb per previous run. South FL getting impacts.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

Hey floridasun78, you doing alright down there and got all those photos sealed and everything?

yes i got my comp that i will take with me i leaving 10am place few feet me i am asst to landlord so i going thast building watch park that strong building it office with living area

[SEASON_CANCELED]

My Face When.... I realize I now have to stay awake for another 2 hours because of the GFS shenanigans.....

well i know the feeling. This euro run is going to be my deciding factor wether to evac. Just waiting for it.

[floridasun78]

will rest go east like gfs this cazy hurr to track models

[FixySLN]

Weakness up the coast. If Irma decides East seems like more fun, turning West after Florida won't be a guarantee.

[Jevo]

0z GFS Secondary CONUS landfall

[SFLcane]

Might wanna consider lowering those hurricane warnings for SFL

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/906365438191423488

[Steve]

GFS is east at 30 hours and 924mb vs. 913mb per previous run. South FL getting impacts.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

Hey floridasun78, you doing alright down there and got all those photos sealed and everything?

yes i got my comp that i will take with me i leaving 10am place few feet me i am asst to landlord so i going thast building watch park that strong building it office with living area

Good. You already know it's going to get hairy. Keep us posted and hit me up down the line if you need anything in the aftermath.

GFS looking real dicey for the southern half of the peninsula and maintaining intact way longer than what the European showed at 12Z. First it makes a move just at landfall. I know it's squirrelly, because in the 6 hour fixes from 30 to 48 hours show pressures as follows:

30H - 924mb
36H - 908mb
42H - 895mb
48H - 932mb

So basically GFS says it will deepen substantially again from 7am Sunday until at least 7pm Sunday. Landfall is delayed on this run a bit from prior consensus. Orlando sees Cat 3 at 943. But it looks particularly brutal. I like the track enough, but I don't know if I want to believe the GFS depiction of the storm because it's really looking bad.

[Jevo]

0z GFS is back on the Spinal run

[Steve]

0z GFS Secondary CONUS landfall

That GFS plot is brutal and all time level stuff.

[caneman]

Yes the GFS has shifted east. First time it has shifted east in like the last 48 hours of runs.

Not likely. The 11 update indicates the ridge is stronger than expected and the radar indicates otherwise

[Evil Jeremy]

Yes the GFS has shifted east. First time it has shifted east in like the last 48 hours of runs.

Not likely. The 11 update indicates the ridge is stronger than expected and the radar indicates otherwise

GFS is running with fresh Gulfstream IV data. Gonzo went into get updated upper atmosphere data.

[caneman]

Yes the GFS has shifted east. First time it has shifted east in like the last 48 hours of runs.

Not likely. The 11 update indicates the ridge is stronger than expected and the radar indicates otherwise

GFS is running with fresh Gulfstream IV data. Gonzo went into get updated upper atmosphere data.

I understand but NHC also said at 11 the ridge has extended further West than,expected. Watch out for a west coast runner.

[Jevo]

Not likely. The 11 update indicates the ridge is stronger than expected and the radar indicates otherwise

GFS is running with fresh Gulfstream IV data. Gonzo went into get updated upper atmosphere data.

I understand but NHC also said at 11 the ridge has extended further West than,expected. Watch out for a west coast runner.

Went spine on this run... Perhaps with the Euro

[Evil Jeremy]

Not likely. The 11 update indicates the ridge is stronger than expected and the radar indicates otherwise

GFS is running with fresh Gulfstream IV data. Gonzo went into get updated upper atmosphere data.

I understand but NHC also said at 11 the ridge has extended further West than,expected. Watch out for a west coast runner.

The discussion at 11 was written based on the information from the 18z model cycle. They have not seen anything yet regarding the new G1V data. It gets incorporated into the 00z models and we will see that reflected in the 5am advisory. Yes, the ridge has expanded. But lets not ignore the most recent data.

EURO will be telling.

[floridasun78]

wfor weather saying models could be sifting east he show gfs

[caneman]

GFS is running with fresh Gulfstream IV data. Gonzo went into get updated upper atmosphere data.

I understand but NHC also said at 11 the ridge has extended further West than,expected. Watch out for a west coast runner.

The discussion at 11 was written based on the information from the 18z model cycle. They have not seen anything yet regarding the new G1V data. It gets incorporated into the 00z models and we will see that reflected in the 5am advisory. Yes, the ridge has expanded. But lets not ignore the most recent data.

EURO will be telling.

The visuals is pretty telling too. Look at the radar.
Waiting on Euro

[PandaCitrus]

Did any of the models predict this slow movement/stall on the coast of Cuba? It hasn't really moved for hours.

[AtlanticWind]

What's happened to the CMC? No data on tropical Tidbits