ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Raebie]

Any thought is the speed the for past hour? Can't believe it's still 13 MPH per the 11 PM update. TIA.

[Dean4Storms]

Hey Hey.....seeing signs of the impact of the shortwave on Irma now, turn more back to WNW should begin before long.

Note the stretching toward the north of her outflow on her northern periphery almost pointed like near end of imagery.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/h5-loop-wv.html

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it stalled for 45min but is now resuming a wnw track looking at images

[FLpanhandle91]

land interaction has begun to disrupt the core.. the eye has started to shrink even more .. if the core collapses it will take much longer to strengthen once away from land.

I do not think the structure of the core was affected too much outside of IR presentation. I'd need to see a microwave run, but I believe it's moving away from Cuba just in time for strengthening to happen .

your IR is directly related to the structure sense its part of the structure..

you radar..dont need microwave

I'm looking at radar right now. Earlier when the EWRC was near it's completion, even you made it a point, through your radar posts, to mention the IR presentation being independent of the true structure of the core or a storm like this. Not trying to start an arguement. Just generating conversation

[PandaCitrus]

Tropical cyclones can slow down and stall when they are changing direction. The Deputy NHC Director mentioned this on TV this evening. I'd think slowing down and making the north turn early puts south east florida at more risk but I'm not an expert on this. I'd love the opinion of a professional on what this stalling could mean and why it is happening.

[floridasun78]

gfs want more east track let see what 5am cone show going long night

[MetroMike]

Very much hoping for a track fail sending it away from major cities. My stress level is over the top!

[Exalt]

That bounce is a bad thing. Less time for Cuba to disrupt the CDO and eyewall, more time for it to gather before it strikes FL.

[Aric Dunn]

I do not think the structure of the core was affected too much outside of IR presentation. I'd need to see a microwave run, but I believe it's moving away from Cuba just in time for strengthening to happen .

your IR is directly related to the structure sense its part of the structure..

you radar..dont need microwave

I'm looking at radar right now. Earlier when the EWRC was near it's completion, even you made it a point, through your radar posts, to mention the IR presentation being independent of the true structure of the core or a storm like this. Not trying to start an arguement. Just generating conversation

I never said independent. earlier the inner eye was producing intermittant convection that was obscuring the structure. meaning you cant always tell straight from satellite.. besides my post only mentioned the eye keeps contracting.. radar satellite and recon confirming this..

radar presentation is degrating along with satellite.. I bet recon find lower winds this pass as well and higher pressure.

[Sanibel]

You can see the outer edge of the storm disc to the south in the moon...The first low level cotton ball clouds are racing by...First notice from Irma...


A big moth with 4 1/2 inch wings was sitting on the front porch with its wings up in the folded position...


Blustery NE breezes...

[meriland29]

It looks like she is weakening on Dvorak

[tailgater]

Where is that Radar? looks like steady west or wnw movement the bounce was just eye clearing in one spot and clouding up in another, I think

[floridasun78]

first rain band coming into miami a

[Aric Dunn]

Where is that Radar? looks like steady west or wnw movement the bounce was just eye clearing in one spot and clouding up in another I think

the composite is pixely but helps with over all motion and the size of this thing !

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... p200Km.gif

[Aric Dunn]

first rain band coming into miami a

yeah mentioned it a couple pages back.. doppler velocities are showing 50 to 60 kts with it at a 700 hundred feet up

[xtyphooncyclonex]

gfs want more east track let see what 5am cone show going long night

the NHC track may shift east given the current developments the storm has today and not to mention the GFS 00z run

[Exalt]

It looks like she is weakening on Dvorak

Slight weakening due to land interaction with Cuba is expected, but likely, and sadly, she'll probably recover no doubt, the water's warm and shear is low.

[PandaCitrus]

Found the latest satellite. Irma stall has appeared to stop and is moving last half hour. Looks WNW/NW wobble bouncing off Cuban coast.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... map=latlon

[mrbagyo]

Looks like it's about to turn to a more NW direction.

[meriland29]

It looks like she is weakening on Dvorak

Slight weakening due to land interaction with Cuba is expected, but likely, and sadly, she'll probably recover no doubt, the water's warm and shear is low.

This does not look slight lol