ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

gfs want more east track let see what 5am cone show going long night

the NHC track may shift east given the current developments the storm has today and not to mention the GFS 00z run

Lets see how the rest of the model suite unfolds before talking about the NHC's next move. It's clear the NHC is putting their faith in the ECMWF. Lets see what that does in an hour.

[floridasun78]

first rain band coming into miami a

yeah mentioned it a couple pages back.. doppler velocities are showing 50 to 60 kts with it at a 700 hundred feet up

wfor weather man say that band wont have ts wind or hurr going gust rains band not that strong

[Exalt]

It looks like she is weakening on Dvorak

Slight weakening due to land interaction with Cuba is expected, but likely, and sadly, she'll probably recover no doubt, the water's warm and shear is low.

This does not look slight lol

That's a slightly outdated floater. Convection should be picking up soon enough.

[wx247]

first rain band coming into miami a

yeah mentioned it a couple pages back.. doppler velocities are showing 50 to 60 kts with it at a 700 hundred feet up

wfor weather man say that band wont have ts wind or hurr going gust rains band not that strong

Mesonet 8 miles ESE of Key Largo just recorded a 53 gust not too long ago.

[cheezyWXguy]

your IR is directly related to the structure sense its part of the structure..

you radar..dont need microwave

I'm looking at radar right now. Earlier when the EWRC was near it's completion, even you made it a point, through your radar posts, to mention the IR presentation being independent of the true structure of the core or a storm like this. Not trying to start an arguement. Just generating conversation

I never said independent. earlier the inner eye was producing intermittant convection that was obscuring the structure. meaning you cant always tell straight from satellite.. besides my post only mentioned the eye keeps contracting.. radar satellite and recon confirming this..

radar presentation is degrating along with satellite.. I bet recon find lower winds this pass as well and higher pressure.

I'm not fully convinced it's taking quite the beating yet. It probably is losing steam, you can't argue data if recon really is finding lower winds. But one thing that piques my curiosity is the weak spot in the nw eyewall. I might be wrong, as I haven't looked at radar yet, but it looks to me like the eye hasn't rapidly contracted, but the old inner eyewall has tried to make a temporary comeback, probably due to the land interaction. The erratic movement or "bouncing" of the eye appears to be the old inner eye revolving around the large, once again cloud covered, newer eye.

I'm curious to know your thoughts, but the clue to me is the curved band immediately outside of the inner nw eyewall. If this is true, it would mean that Irma has been taking a more consistent path so far with a gradual bend to the wnw.

[stormreader]

Where is that Radar? looks like steady west or wnw movement the bounce was just eye clearing in one spot and clouding up in another, I think

No. It was a bounce.

[stormreader]

Looks like it's about to turn to a more NW direction.

Yes.

[Raebie]

It looks like she is weakening on Dvorak

Slight weakening due to land interaction with Cuba is expected, but likely, and sadly, she'll probably recover no doubt, the water's warm and shear is low.

This does not look slight lol

You seem disappointed. I'll personally be thrilled if she gets shredded.

[Aric Dunn]

first rain band coming into miami a

yeah mentioned it a couple pages back.. doppler velocities are showing 50 to 60 kts with it at a 700 hundred feet up

wfor weather man say that band wont have ts wind or hurr going gust rains band not that strong

well he must have some special weather equipment...

[LesKat]

I don't understand the comments saying the NHC will shift east at this point? It's done nothing but shift west the last few days? All of Florida doesn't even seem to be in the come at this point.

[stormreader]

Looks like it's about to turn to a more NW direction.

Yes.

Strange. Most thought, and models generally showed, a graze, or perhaps a slight tangential penetration of the Cuban coast.Looks like what we may get is an abrupt drop to the SW onto the coast, and then an equally extreme correction, right off, or along the coast. Could be no penetration. Storm maintains itself. Very mysterious.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah mentioned it a couple pages back.. doppler velocities are showing 50 to 60 kts with it at a 700 hundred feet up

wfor weather man say that band wont have ts wind or hurr going gust rains band not that strong

well he must have some special weather equipment...

you know much better equipment than the NWS..




Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Miami FL
1232 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

FLZ072>074-173-174-090530-
Metro Broward County FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-
Dade County FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
1232 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

...Significant Weather Advisory for 45 to 55 mph winds for eastern
Miami-Dade County Until 130 AM EDT...

* At 1231 AM EDT...Doppler radar was tracking a Line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles east of Miami
Beach to 6 miles west of Ocean Reef...and moving west at 40 mph.

* The primary impacts will be gusty winds of 45 TO 55 mph. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Miami, Hialeah, Miramar, Miami Beach, Homestead, Coral Gables, Key
Biscayne, South Miami, Surfside, Homestead Miami Speedway, Black
Point, Miami Gardens, The Redland, Turkey Point, Virginia Key,
Kendall, North Miami, Doral, North Miami Beach and Aventura.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to street flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

[Aric Dunn]

doppler velocites now showing an area of 50 kt and 60 to 70 kt at 400 feet about to come ashore..

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't understand the comments saying the NHC will shift east at this point? It's done nothing but shift west the last few days? All of Florida doesn't even seem to be in the come at this point.

The things wrong with your post:

1: About 90% of Florida is still in the cone at this point.

2: Models shifting west over time does not mean they can't shift back east.

3: People saying the NHC will shift back east should patient to see how the rest of the model suite rolls out, and how here long-term motion appears over the next few hours. Lets not jump all over a slight shift back east... but let's not ignore it.

[LesKat]

I don't understand the comments saying the NHC will shift east at this point? It's done nothing but shift west the last few days? All of Florida doesn't even seem to be in the come at this point.

The things wrong with your post:

1: About 90% of Florida is still in the cone at this point.

2: Models shifting west over time does not mean they can't shift back east.

3: People saying the NHC will shift back east should patient to see how the rest of the model suite rolls out, and how here long-term motion appears over the next few hours. Lets not jump all over a slight shift back east... but let's not ignore it.

Well yes sure.

1. I understand this is about to be a life changing event for Florida.

2. I understand how models work. I'm speaking specifically on the NHC track which has been rather conservative on when and how far it shifts.

3. I totally agree on patience and that was part of my point.

[westcoastnative]

15,000-35,000 remain in the FL Keys per the latest estimate, even though many many more have left. This is per Rep. Carlos Curbelo on NBC 6 in Miami. This is a worrying figure based on the latest track from the NHC.

There ain't no cure for stupid.

A cat 5 hurricane could do the trick.

Seriously, though, after the director of the NHC point-blank says survivability is not possible in the Keys, what more incentive do people need to leave? If the Keys gets the devastation predicted and thousands of people die (which would be horrific), I would assume that people would take the NHC/NWS's warnings more seriously the next time they say, "GET OUT NOW!"

[westcoastnative]

I wanted to post a Google + GIS link to a map showing lots of info about open FEMA shelters. Earlier this evening the map worked fine. Now it does not work at all.

Apparently either the FEMA ArcGIS server crashed hard or the data was moved.

I have searched online for a working map showing open FEMA shelters but no joy. While I am safe and sound many states removed from Irma, I do want to help by producing map links.

Does anyone have a working map link that displays open FEMA shelters?

Maybe this will help:

https://services.femadata.com/arcgis/rest/services/Shelters/FEMA_Open_Shelters/FeatureServer/0

http://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?url=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.femadata.com%2Farcgis%2Frest%2Fservices%2FShelters%2FFEMA_Open_Shelters%2FFeatureServer%2F0&source=sd

ETA: 38 total shelters, Georgia and both Carolinas plus one in Washington State for whatever reason.

The open shelter in Washington State is likely due to the wildfires that are raging in the Pacific Northwest right now.

[ApproximateKnowledge]

What the heck is happening to Irma's west side? The whole W eyewall collapsed in like an hour.

[Aric Dunn]

winds are down a good bit. probably 140 mph

[utweather]

Looks like it's about to turn to a more NW direction.

Yes.

Strange. Most thought, and models generally showed, a graze, or perhaps a slight tangential penetration of the Cuban coast.Looks like what we may get is an abrupt drop to the SW onto the coast, and then an equally extreme correction, right off, or along the coast. Could be no penetration. Storm maintains itself. Very mysterious.

Well the UKMET did have Irma going into Cuba a few days ago. I didn't think it would but if it does, then there was that other model(I can't remember which one that when it went over Cuba it did the drainyo?(what did yall call it lol) evapo shredder thing. Wouldn't it be something if that happened..