ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

is 142 knots SFMR all of a sudden not grounds for a Cat 5?

That's pretty much the value that the planes were finding in Irmas eyewall when she was 150kt+

Edit: But yeah I agree with that post-season upgrade. Maybe they stayed conservative to avoid confusion with 2 cat 5s active at the same time and the whole media hype thing going on with Irma right now.

[CrazyC83]

I agree those, Jose is likely getting a TCR upgrade to cat 5 - at a minimum at 1800Z.

[EquusStorm]

Even though Igor (the storm whose structure I mentioned reminded me of) never got the bump from 155 in post season, I feel pretty confident that Jose was at some point 160+ between recon. Rapidly losing structure now, but I do hope it hangs around for a long time far from land to add some ACE and keep things from getting boring. Now if it can only trend north to stay away from the islands in the meantime...

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Jose ends being upgraded to Category 5.

[galaxy401]

Heh the Storm2k graphic shows two Category fives in the Atlantic. It's probably true too.

[CrazyC83]

Even though Igor (the storm whose structure I mentioned reminded me of) never got the bump from 155 in post season, I feel pretty confident that Jose was at some point 160+ between recon. Rapidly losing structure now, but I do hope it hangs around for a long time far from land to add some ACE and keep things from getting boring. Now if it can only trend north to stay away from the islands in the meantime...

Igor never had Recon anywhere near peak intensity, and when Recon finally came in, it was weaker than Dvorak believed.

[EquusStorm]

Even though Igor (the storm whose structure I mentioned reminded me of) never got the bump from 155 in post season, I feel pretty confident that Jose was at some point 160+ between recon. Rapidly losing structure now, but I do hope it hangs around for a long time far from land to add some ACE and keep things from getting boring. Now if it can only trend north to stay away from the islands in the meantime...

Igor never had Recon anywhere near peak intensity, and when Recon finally came in, it was weaker than Dvorak believed.

Was just reminded structurally of the two, not necessarily implying they were identical in intensity. Only so much Dvorak can nail down perfectly and never enough recon to go around to catch every thing

[Exalt]

Probably just didn't want to add any extra hysteria to the mix on top of Irma. I would put money down on them changing Jose to a 160-165 mph peak.

[znel52]

Those cooler waters Irma churned up are taking their toll on ole Jose.

[1900hurricane]

I do see some similarities to Igor '10, but during its first 130 kt analyzed peak on September 13 rather than the overall 135 kt analyzed peak near 00Z on September 15. Both had CDOs warmer than would be expected from a category 5, but extremely warm and well defined eyes embedded within amazing structure. Here the two are, with Jose on top and Igor '10 on bottom. First set of images are BD IR, and the second set are MODIS images from as near the same time as I could find. Not a perfect fit, but not awful either.

[CrazyC83]

Those cooler waters Irma churned up are taking their toll on ole Jose.

I think Jose just hit the point where Irma rapidly went from cat 3 to cat 5.

[1900hurricane]

Jose isn't done yet. Convection is cooling again with the eye once again becoming warmer and better defined. I suspect the previous weakening may have been from a small episode of dry air entrainment. Looks like it mixed out pretty quickly.

[hurricanes1234]

Yes, really looking good again. If it does manage to intensify some more, I hope recon arrives in time to sample it.

[supercane4867]

Satellite presentation improving big time.
It was such a bad timing for recon tonight. Let's see if he can hold until next recon.

[SouthFloridawx]

.

[mrbagyo]

Very tight core

[euro6208]

While Florida is about to deal with Irma (but weaker) and the other islands already suffering a devastating blow, Jose is again coming right at them. Just imagine if it was the other way around with Florida. The hype would be off the chart. Getting awfully close to Barbuda who just suffered a 160 knot landfall yet all attention is to the sunshine state...

[bob rulz]

I can't even imagine what it would be like to experience a cat 5 followed by a cat 4 a week later.

Luckily as of now it's looking like it's going to avoid a direct hit on Barbuda (though I will stress it cannot be ruled out!), but even a brushby could just add to the misery.

I've seen the videos and pictures from Barbuda. It's uninhabitable as is, and I fear it could be many years before it can be rebuilt, or before the residents on the island could even return. It's simply too much for such a small country as Antigua & Barbuda to deal with. At least St. Martin has Dutch & French resources, and the Virgin Islands have British and American resources. Antigua & Barbuda will have to rely on foreign aid.

They made the smart choice getting everyone off of the island.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

While Florida is about to deal with Irma (but weaker) and the other islands already suffering a devastating blow, Jose is again coming right at them. Just imagine if it was the other way around with Florida. The hype would be off the chart. Getting awfully close to Barbuda who just suffered a 160 knot landfall yet all attention is to the sunshine state...

I see your point about a devastating landfall, it has been punishing for Barbuda for the past few days and here goes another... The media gave sufficient coverage for this storm.

The main reason why the media is putting their attention on Florida is because it contains Miami, which is among the most highly populated metropolitan areas in the United States, cities like Orlando and Tampa and is densely populated whilst growing rapidly. It would be the first time since Hurricane Andrew that a major hurricane of that strength (IMO it would be stronger than Charley) would strike the state, and the swath of impact and winds is huge. The area has significant infrastructure and establishments built on the foundation of their cities and if destroyed, damage would reach hundreds of billions of dollars. I myself have relatives and friends over Palm Beach County, Port St. Lucie, Orlando and Vero Beach.

Not downplaying Jose's possible impact on the Antilles but Irma's coverage is not at all unwarranted.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like it would miss the Leeward islands based on the current trend in movement on radar - moving NW