ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

all models show significant intensification tomorrow.

[Hammy]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

Dennis in 2005 went over significantly more land than this and still intensified almost 50 mph in 12 hours, so I'd advise against feeling better about Irma until it's completely passed--it's still forecast to ride up the coast or just inland at the moment.

[johngaltfla]

Based on the 0500 disco, still looks like secondary Florida landfall after the Keys between Bonita Springs and Englewood. Not good. Poor Punta Gorda, just now recovering from Charley and getting zapped again.

[d3v123]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

NO. You should be seriously finalizing your preps. I have a few windows to do today then I'm ready other than filling my bathtub in the morning.

Thank you. I'm all boarded up and ready to go. It's just easy to get lost in everyone's posts running on very little, anxious sleep

[johngaltfla]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

NO. You should be seriously finalizing your preps. I have a few windows to do today then I'm ready other than filling my bathtub in the morning.

Thank you. I'm all boarded up and ready to go. It's just easy to get lost in everyone's posts running on very little, anxious sleep

If this is your first storm, welcome to one hell of a ride.

[d3v123]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

all models show significant intensification tomorrow.

Okay thank you so much. I appreciate everyone here more than y'all know! We are prepared and ready to handle what comes.

[Langinbang187]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

all models show significant intensification tomorrow.

Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

[wxmann_91]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

Follow the advice of local authorities and the professionals at the NHC, not some random people on a message board.

[scogor]

This is scogor checking in from Sarasota. Currently still considering hunkering down with my wife at either a nearby shelter, with friends in a fairly new home with hurricane shutters, or heading up to Jacksonville to stay with my wife's mother in a older (but brick) home. Jax is 4 and a half hours away but we have a full tank of gas. Our home does not have hurricane shutters (it does have upgraded sliding glass doors) but does have some "safe rooms". Any thoughts on whether we ride it out in Sarasota (we have hotel reservations in downtown Sarasota beginning Monday evening as we assume we'll have no power at our home) or whether we should hit the road to Jax would be greatly appreciated. Thanks to all of the storm2kers (both new and my fellow "oldtimers") and please stay safe!

[Alyono]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

all models show significant intensification tomorrow.

Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

it was SUPPOSED to hug the coast for much of today. This is doing what it was supposed to do

[Langinbang187]

all models show significant intensification tomorrow.

Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

it was SUPPOSED to hug the coast for much of today. This is doing what it was supposed to do

Great, so I'm anticipating even further weakening. The NHC forecast from last night had this thing pulling away from Cuba hours ago though, no? Doesn't seem to be in a hurry to do so at all.

[NDG]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

Stay by the official forecast, and the Euro model which shows to make landfall even after making landfall over Cuba as a strong Cat 4 hurricane.

[txrok]

I was taught since early childhood that hurricanes do what they want to do and are very unpredictable.

all models show significant intensification tomorrow.

Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

it was SUPPOSED to hug the coast for much of today. This is doing what it was supposed to do

[Alyono]

Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

it was SUPPOSED to hug the coast for much of today. This is doing what it was supposed to do

Great, so I'm anticipating even further weakening.

could go to cat 3, but it is greatly expanded in size. Interaction with the trough will intensify this. Wilma blew up in 2005 and it sat over Cancun for 24 hours. It had no core at all

[NDG]

all models show significant intensification tomorrow.

Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

it was SUPPOSED to hug the coast for much of today. This is doing what it was supposed to do

Exactly right, is doing what the models, especially the Euro has been showing for at least 2-3 runs in row, that it was going to make landfall over Cuba, loose some strength then regain strength as it tracks over the very warm FL Straights and extreme SE GOM.

[johngaltfla]

So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't

all models show significant intensification tomorrow.

Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

The Florida Straits and Florida Bay have 89 degree water, no shear, and nothing to prevent intensification. It can bomb out in less than 6 hours. Cuba is a flea fart in its development as the eye did not pass over the mountainous eastern region of the island.

[johngaltfla]

This is scogor checking in from Sarasota. Currently still considering hunkering down with my wife at either a nearby shelter, with friends in a fairly new home with hurricane shutters, or heading up to Jacksonville to stay with my wife's mother in a older (but brick) home. Jax is 4 and a half hours away but we have a full tank of gas. Our home does not have hurricane shutters (it does have upgraded sliding glass doors) but does have some "safe rooms". Any thoughts on whether we ride it out in Sarasota (we have hotel reservations in downtown Sarasota beginning Monday evening as we assume we'll have no power at our home) or whether we should hit the road to Jax would be greatly appreciated. Thanks to all of the storm2kers (both new and my fellow "oldtimers") and please stay safe!

That is a personal decision. This latest forecast is bad for Sarasota as the eye is projected to pass just east or over the city. If this verifies we will experience solid cat 3 winds with cat 4 gusts. It is going to suck. If you know the back way to Jax, I would leave if you have a place to go.

[Langinbang187]

it was SUPPOSED to hug the coast for much of today. This is doing what it was supposed to do

Great, so I'm anticipating even further weakening.

could go to cat 3, but it is greatly expanded in size. Interaction with the trough will intensify this. Wilma blew up in 2005 and it sat over Cancun for 24 hours. It had no core at all

I'd be shocked if it already wasn't down to a 3. Regarding whether it'll intensify SIGNIFICANTLY before eventual landfall in FL remains to be seen, but I'm certainly not banking on it personally.

[brghteys1216]

I think the only thing you SHOULD bank on is this being a major, destructive hurricane landfalling in Florida like the NHC says.

However,
Irma has done several fascinating things and I haven't got a doubt that this storm will once again be able to take advantage of a set up for intensification.

Great, so I'm anticipating even further weakening.

could go to cat 3, but it is greatly expanded in size. Interaction with the trough will intensify this. Wilma blew up in 2005 and it sat over Cancun for 24 hours. It had no core at all

I'd be shocked if it already wasn't down to a 3. Regarding whether it'll intensify SIGNIFICANTLY before eventual landfall in FL remains to be seen, but I'm certainly not banking on it personally.

[Sanibel]

We're in it now...Parking garage position yesterday was for winds from north...Probably will have winds from south now...


Worst case scenario for surge on Sanibel...Must try to get another hour sleep before final securing of house...Have about 1.5 hours of final preparations and ready to go...


Intended shelter will now be in hard NE eyewall...



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