ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9201 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:38 am

The track is now getting VERY close to not making landfall on the west coast of Florida, a just offshore track will probably allow its core to continue to tighten further than obviously if it hit SW florida. A VERY bad trend for Tampa and the west coast, maybe slightly better for the east coast but still strong winds there as well.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9202 Postby KyleEverett » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:38 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
Great, so I'm anticipating even further weakening.


could go to cat 3, but it is greatly expanded in size. Interaction with the trough will intensify this. Wilma blew up in 2005 and it sat over Cancun for 24 hours. It had no core at all


I'd be shocked if it already wasn't down to a 3. Regarding whether it'll intensify SIGNIFICANTLY before eventual landfall in FL remains to be seen, but I'm certainly not banking on it personally.

Langingbang187, you need to stop arguing with a man who is a professional in meteorology, and listen to what the adults who know what they're talking about are saying.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9203 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:43 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
d3v123 wrote:So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't


all models show significant intensification tomorrow.


Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.


You are acting like the core has fallen apart, if it would had then I would had said you are right.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9204 Postby Langinbang187 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:43 am

johngaltfla wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
all models show significant intensification tomorrow.


Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.


The Florida Straits and Florida Bay have 89 degree water, no shear, and nothing to prevent intensification. It can bomb out in less than 6 hours. Cuba is a flea fart in its development as the eye did not pass over the mountainous eastern region of the island.


I'm sorry, have you even looked at the storm compared to last night? The eye clearly didn't need to pass directly over the highest mountains to cause significant weakening. This thing doesn't exactly have 48+ hours over water to rebuild its core, it should have 24 or less. Not to mention it's still likely to weaken further as it's still going to be grazing the coast of Cuba for 6+ hours. Hell, look at all the time Ike had to rebuild it's core and it didn't really start to get it's inner structure figured back out until it was about to make landfall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9205 Postby JarrodB » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:46 am

Alyono wrote:all models show significant intensification tomorrow.


What about the shear in the forecast? It seems like Irma will be hugging Cuba for the next 12 hours, the shear is supposed to be there in about 24hrs. That seems like a very narrow window for strengthening.

I get RI is possible, especially with 88° water in Key West.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9206 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:46 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.


The Florida Straits and Florida Bay have 89 degree water, no shear, and nothing to prevent intensification. It can bomb out in less than 6 hours. Cuba is a flea fart in its development as the eye did not pass over the mountainous eastern region of the island.


I'm sorry, have you even looked at the storm compared to last night? The eye clearly didn't need to pass directly over the highest mountains to cause significant weakening. This thing doesn't exactly have 48+ hours over water to rebuild its core, it should have 24 or less. Not to mention it's still likely to weaken further as it's still going to be grazing the coast of Cuba for 6+ hours. Hell, look at all the time Ike had to rebuild it's core and it didn't really start to get it's inner structure figured back out until it was about to make landfall.



Ike also had started an EWRC BEFORE it hit Cuba. That is what it was trying to finish after it hit Cuba. Like Wilma this one FINISHED an EWRC before moving over land. The core can rebuild VERY quickly
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9207 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:47 am

JarrodB wrote:
Alyono wrote:all models show significant intensification tomorrow.


What about the shear in the forecast? It seems like Irma will be hugging Cuba for the next 12 hours, the shear is supposed to be there in about 24hrs. That seems like a very narrow window for strengthening.

I get RI is possible, especially with 88° water in Key West.


Dynamical models are intensifying it. I suspect that the area average shear will in fact increase. However, there will be significant outflow enhancement as the shear will be confined to the northern semicircle. Wilma was analyzed to be in a high shear environment due to this, when the real shear was very low
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9208 Postby bob rulz » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:49 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.


The Florida Straits and Florida Bay have 89 degree water, no shear, and nothing to prevent intensification. It can bomb out in less than 6 hours. Cuba is a flea fart in its development as the eye did not pass over the mountainous eastern region of the island.


I'm sorry, have you even looked at the storm compared to last night? The eye clearly didn't need to pass directly over the highest mountains to cause significant weakening. This thing doesn't exactly have 48+ hours over water to rebuild its core, it should have 24 or less. Not to mention it's still likely to weaken further as it's still going to be grazing the coast of Cuba for 6+ hours. Hell, look at all the time Ike had to rebuild it's core and it didn't really start to get it's inner structure figured back out until it was about to make landfall.


You don't have to rebuild the core if the core hasn't been destroyed. It's clear to see from IR and radar that the core is still intact!! Weakening of convection does NOT mean that the core needs to be rebuilt. Also, this storm needs to stop being compared to Ike. Ike made landfall and moved directly over the most mountainous part of Cuba. They are not comparable.
Last edited by bob rulz on Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9209 Postby Stormtrack03 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:49 am

Incoming bands coming into SE Florida on radar loop:
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9210 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:50 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.


The Florida Straits and Florida Bay have 89 degree water, no shear, and nothing to prevent intensification. It can bomb out in less than 6 hours. Cuba is a flea fart in its development as the eye did not pass over the mountainous eastern region of the island.


I'm sorry, have you even looked at the storm compared to last night? The eye clearly didn't need to pass directly over the highest mountains to cause significant weakening. This thing doesn't exactly have 48+ hours over water to rebuild its core, it should have 24 or less. Not to mention it's still likely to weaken further as it's still going to be grazing the coast of Cuba for 6+ hours. Hell, look at all the time Ike had to rebuild it's core and it didn't really start to get it's inner structure figured back out until it was about to make landfall.


The difference is Ike was already throwing out EWRC before Cuba and it went over a load of land over Cuba. Irma is hugging the coast at the moment and it is more or less over water still, hence why the presentation hasn't really gone massively downhill.

Anyway 24hrs is ALOT of time, and its going to have exceptional conditions aloft and its hardly starting from square one.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9211 Postby KBBOCA » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:50 am

Had to finally call it a night just after the 11 pm advisory (3 a.m. my time!). 20 pages to catch up on here, but not time as I have various appointments scheduled today. But there's a picture I saw on Twitter this a.m that I thought deserved posting here...

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/906431244430438401




https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJRJ4uRUIAAFKzR.jpg
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9212 Postby Vdogg » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:52 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
d3v123 wrote:So should I be feeling better in Tampa? Everyone is making it sound like Irma is falling apart, I can't keep up with the opinions and what's true and what isn't


all models show significant intensification tomorrow.


Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

This storm has rapidly intensified several times in it's life. I have no doubt it can rebuild quickly again.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9213 Postby Airboy » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:53 am

It will be intresting to see the pressure on the next recon eye pass, has it cotinued to rise or is it more or less the same.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9214 Postby Langinbang187 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:56 am

Vdogg wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
Alyono wrote:
all models show significant intensification tomorrow.


Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

This storm has rapidly intensified several times in it's life. I have no doubt it can rebuild quickly again.


We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9215 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:56 am

As plenty of people have said, the inner core is STILL alive and kicking, at the moment it needs to rebuild *nothing*. If it rolled off land right now its going to have the chance to strengthen almost instantly. Of course the inner core could weaken more if it goes deeper inland but right now its inner core still looks good and most of the eye is still over water.

Of course it will probably have somewhat lower winds now due to land interaction, but how much is a good question.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9216 Postby bob rulz » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:59 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
KyleEverett wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
I'd be shocked if it already wasn't down to a 3. Regarding whether it'll intensify SIGNIFICANTLY before eventual landfall in FL remains to be seen, but I'm certainly not banking on it personally.

Langingbang187, you need to stop arguing with a man who is a professional in meteorology, and listen to what the adults who know what they're talking about are saying.


You're clearly taking things out of context. Just because somebody is a professional doesn't mean I can't respectfully disagree or question something they say. Are these the same adults who argued tooth and nail with me two days ago and assured me two days ago that Cuba wouldn't cause any significant weakening with Irma? Because there were quite a few posters who assured me this wouldn't happen. I'm expecting Irma to weaken to a 3 here later today, if she hasn't already. We'll see what she does in with her 24 hours over water to rebuild herself. Congratulations on an extremely ignorant post.


Nobody gets points for making a correct hurricane prediction, and it doesn't guarantee that your next prediction will be correct.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9217 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:00 am

Next 12 hours will be interesting. The only non-flat part of central Cuba is the Escambray Mountains which is to the SW of Irma at this time. After Irma crosses the longitude of those mountains, downsloping flow off those mountains on the backside of the storm could *potentially* advect some dry air directly into a vulnerable, weakened core. How Irma reacts to that might determine whether Irma approaches western FL as a high-end hurricane or a moderate one.

Having an intact core will be of great importance especially since a healthy core will be able to buffet against the increasing shear, which will allow Irma to take advantage of increasing outflow and the upper-level support from the developing jet streak to her north. With a disheveled core, it is less clear whether Irma will recover. The encroaching upper-level flow will be from the WSW, perpendicular to the expected NNW motion of the storm. You can see the increasing 200mb flow in the GOM in the image below.

Image

TL;DR: next 12 hr could have big *max-wind* implications for the Florida peninsula. I still expect a life-threatening storm surge and a large area of damaging wind gust regardless, however.
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9218 Postby bob rulz » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:01 am

This does not look like a core that's in need of rebuilding to me.

Image
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Langinbang187

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9219 Postby Langinbang187 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:01 am

KWT wrote:As plenty of people have said, the inner core is STILL alive and kicking, at the moment it needs to rebuild *nothing*. If it rolled off land right now its going to have the chance to strengthen almost instantly. Of course the inner core could weaken more if it goes deeper inland but right now its inner core still looks good and most of the eye is still over water.

Of course it will probably have somewhat lower winds now due to land interaction, but how much is a good question.


The core has clearly weakened though, and it's likely to continue to do so throughout the day. Speaking of winds, have we had a NE quad sample recently? Last recon data showed max winds of 120 MPH or so.
Last edited by Langinbang187 on Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9220 Postby Kat5 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:02 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

This storm has rapidly intensified several times in it's life. I have no doubt it can rebuild quickly again.


We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.


Gonna be riding the Cuban coast for the day, not expecting strengthening until at least it gets by the dry tortugas.
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