ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

its pulling away from the coast ever slowly.. convection returning now that the southern eyewall is alittle more back over water.

[KWT]

As plenty of people have said, the inner core is STILL alive and kicking, at the moment it needs to rebuild *nothing*. If it rolled off land right now its going to have the chance to strengthen almost instantly. Of course the inner core could weaken more if it goes deeper inland but right now its inner core still looks good and most of the eye is still over water.

Of course it will probably have somewhat lower winds now due to land interaction, but how much is a good question.

The core has clearly weakened though, and it's likely to continue to do so throughout the day. Speaking of winds, have we had a NE quad sample recently? Last recon data showed max winds of 120 MPH or so.

Yeah its weaker but its still there, you should have seen last night, the eyewall literally lit up within the space of 3hrs it went from looking a little weaker with the SW quad looking very weak, to once again having a strong band of convection.

There is a reason why hurricanes can go from 1/2 to 4/5 in 12-18hrs, and thats because once it gets that inner core, systems can strengthen very rapidly in good conditions.

[KWT]

its pulling away from the coast ever slowly.. convection returning now that the southern eyewall is alittle more back over water.

Amazing to watch, its riding up the coast!

Love to see these dynamics where eyes interact with land, very interesting. If it does go over land now, its not going to be for a huge amount of time and its actually slightly offshore.

[Michele B]

The track is now getting VERY close to not making landfall on the west coast of Florida, a just offshore track will probably allow its core to continue to tighten further than obviously if it hit SW florida. A VERY bad trend for Tampa and the west coast, maybe slightly better for the east coast but still strong winds there as well.

Just like Donna. Just like Charley.

The warm water of the Peace River will pull it in at. Charlotte Harbor.

[caneman]

Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.

This storm has rapidly intensified several times in it's life. I have no doubt it can rebuild quickly again.

We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.

Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.

[Nimbus]

its pulling away from the coast ever slowly.. convection returning now that the southern eyewall is alittle more back over water.

Irma is going to regenerate very quickly riding over the straits with those high SST's.
Euro has the ridge north of Irma just maintaining between the 12Z and 00z runs, 06z GFS is building the ridge a little stronger and further east.

WV loop has the trough draped over the Tampa bay area currently but it doesn't look like it is ready to dig much till that next impulse arrives from Arkansas. Models should be coming into agreement with the better upper air data?

I think wobble watching may be of some use since the steering currents are still kind of weak and we are near the point where small track changes get amplified.

[NDG]

Irma's outflow has expanded tremendously, now starting to tap into the trough to the north of her.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If the current forecast holds I'll find myself in the NE eyewall of a Cat 3 hurricane... eek.

[jlauderdal]

This storm has rapidly intensified several times in it's life. I have no doubt it can rebuild quickly again.

We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.

Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.

listen to caneman...the system is in a very favorable area ot intensify, doesnt mean it will but intensity forecasting is extremely difficult..they are having a tough enough time figuring out the ridge let alone what happens with the core dynamics...everyone on the west coast prepare for a major just like we did on the east coast


good luck to west coast peeps...nbc6 miami just showed a very large tree down in miami..maybe those were 60 mph winds in that feeder band that sent that tree on top of the house

[Langinbang187]

This storm has rapidly intensified several times in it's life. I have no doubt it can rebuild quickly again.

We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.

Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.

Harvey & Charley were literally less than half the size of Irma. It's common knowledge that larger systems tend to take more time to ramp up than smaller ones. Very strange comparisons. This place is doom cast central today.

Anyway the eye is currently open to the NW, not expecting things to get any better for Irma for quite some time. We'll see if she bounces back as quickly as everybody here seems to think.

[marionstorm]

What do you mean the eyewall is open to the NW? It doesn't look that way on radar to me.

[NDG]

OK we need to stop the personal attacks, Longinbang187 has his thinking that it will not restrengthen from the current state of Irma and going against the Euro, GFS and NHC that show landfall of a Cat 4.
He's right that Irma has probably gone down to a Cat 3 but I don't see that he is right that the core is in that bad of a shape.
Lets move on, Cat 3 or 4 it would still bring significant damaging surge to SW FL, is not going to make a difference.
Stop feeding a troll

[O Town]

We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.

Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.

Harvey & Charley were literally less than half the size of Irma. It's common knowledge that larger systems tend to take more time to ramp up than smaller ones. Very strange comparisons. This place is doom cast central today.

Anyway the eye is currently open to the NW, not expecting things to get any better for Irma for quite some time. We'll see if she bounces back as quickly as everybody here seems to think.

Definitely NOT doom cast central... pretty sure they just don't want people letting their guard down. Better to get out or be over prepared then caught in a major hurricane with your pants down, so to speak. Too many storms have quickly intensified in those waters to not think Irma won't do the same.

[Nimbus]

We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.

Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.

Harvey & Charley were literally less than half the size of Irma. It's common knowledge that larger systems tend to take more time to ramp up than smaller ones. Very strange comparisons. This place is doom cast central today.

Anyway the eye is currently open to the NW, not expecting things to get any better for Irma for quite some time. We'll see if she bounces back as quickly as everybody here seems to think.

If she crosses 80w at 23N she will have had a fairly long period of interaction with land but since she is forecast to track through the same waters as Hurricane Charley for a fairly long time she will likely regenerate.

[bob rulz]

We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.

Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.

Harvey & Charley were literally less than half the size of Irma. It's common knowledge that larger systems tend to take more time to ramp up than smaller ones. Very strange comparisons. This place is doom cast central today.

Is that why it intensified so rapidly on its approach to Cuba?

Anyway the eye is currently open to the NW, not expecting things to get any better for Irma for quite some time. We'll see if she bounces back as quickly as everybody here seems to think.

Have you bothered to even look at the radar, or the IR images that have been posted on this page? Or are you so convinced of your narrative that you will ignore all evidence to the contrary, or dismiss any kind of suggestion that this MIGHT be able to intensify rapidly again over the Straits?

[Nimbus]

Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.

Harvey & Charley were literally less than half the size of Irma. It's common knowledge that larger systems tend to take more time to ramp up than smaller ones. Very strange comparisons. This place is doom cast central today.

Anyway the eye is currently open to the NW, not expecting things to get any better for Irma for quite some time. We'll see if she bounces back as quickly as everybody here seems to think.

If she crosses 80w at 23N she will have had a fairly long period of interaction with land but since she is forecast to track through the same waters as Hurricane Charley for a fairly long time she will likely regenerate.

It is a critical forecast for people like Caneman on the beach off Tampa bay in a normally safe CBC with a good roof..

[NDG]

BTW, the eye is still closed as reported by the recon.

URNT12 KNHC 091029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/10:12:30Z
B. 22 deg 32 min N
079 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2546 m
D. 101 kt
E. 060 deg 18 nm
F. 141 deg 108 kt
G. 056 deg 25 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 11 C / 3045 m
J. 16 C / 3046 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 2611A IRMA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 112 KT 026 / 18 NM 08:32:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 12 KT
;

[Langinbang187]

OK we need to stop the personal attacks, Longinbang187 has his thinking that it will not restrengthen from the current state of Irma and going against the Euro, GFS and NHC that show landfall of a Cat 4.
He's right that Irma has probably gone down to a Cat 3 but I don't see that he is right that the core is in that bad of a shape.
Lets move on, Cat 3 or 4 it would still bring significant damaging surge to SW FL, is not going to make a difference.
Stop feeding a troll

I wouldn't be surprised to see some strengthening. Merely said I expect it to take some time to rebuild itself for a while.

[caneman]

We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.

Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.

Harvey & Charley were literally less than half the size of Irma. It's common knowledge that larger systems tend to take more time to ramp up than smaller ones. Very strange comparisons. This place is doom cast central today.

Anyway the eye is currently open to the NW, not expecting things to get any better for Irma for quite some time. We'll see if she bounces back as quickly as everybody here seems to think.

Nice try. You were also given an example of Wilma and I'm sure there are many others. Trust the NHC folks and some of our great Mets here.

[KWT]

OK we need to stop the personal attacks, Longinbang187 has his thinking that it will not restrengthen from the current state of Irma and going against the Euro, GFS and NHC that show landfall of a Cat 4.
He's right that Irma has probably gone down to a Cat 3 but I don't see that he is right that the core is in that bad of a shape.
Lets move on, Cat 3 or 4 it would still bring significant damaging surge to SW FL, is not going to make a difference.
Stop feeding a troll

Yeah the damage in terms of storm surge is pretty much set in stone now whatever happens from here on out.

Also, even if it does weaken down to cat-3, that is still a major hurricane and even if it doesn't restrengthen your still looking at a powerful hurricane making landfall.

My guess though is it WILL restrengthen and will probably come in as a fierce top end cat-4. Thats where I'd nail my mast right now.