ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9241 Postby got ants? » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:36 am

We were getting some feeder bands just before I went to sleep. About 12-ish. Now, it totoally calm. I think interaction with Cuba is knocking her down.

I'm not a pro met, and just my uneducated opinion.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9242 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:38 am

Not seeing where people think this storm is going to struggle. It's obvious the storm has weakened significantly as a result of interaction from Cuba: Pressures have risen nearly 10mb, winds have decreased to around low-end Cat 4, and the structure on satellite is very ragged. That said, the core is very much still intact per radar and the latest VDM. Barring an EWRC, I do not see why the storm won't intensify before it reaches the Keys. Yes, it's true larger storms intensify slower, but Irma has proven that, despite its size, it's still more than capable of quickly intensifying. Not doomcasting either, because I'm going to be right in the absolute worst of this storm. I've seen posts on other forums, like AmericanWx, claiming it's going all the way to Alabama. I hope we can avoid that type of nonsensical, sensationalist talk today.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9243 Postby bob rulz » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:40 am

Image

As I thought, convection is already increasing rapidly on the south side of the storm as it has moved into the "notch".

Compare to the image from just 35 minutes before and notice the increased convection in the southern eyewall.
Image

The hurricane may be weaker, but it's perfectly intact structurally, and I'm not sure how you can believe otherwise.

NDG wrote:BTW, the eye is still closed as reported by the recon.

URNT12 KNHC 091029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/10:12:30Z
B. 22 deg 32 min N
079 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2546 m
D. 101 kt
E. 060 deg 18 nm
F. 141 deg 108 kt
G. 056 deg 25 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 11 C / 3045 m
J. 16 C / 3046 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 2611A IRMA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 112 KT 026 / 18 NM 08:32:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 12 KT
;


Is that proof enough lang??
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9244 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:40 am

According to IR satellite right now there is a fantastic core with fantastic clearly visible eye. It passed north of the NHC forecast point by about 10 mikes and is completely offshore right now. It's going to continue to skirt the Cuban islands but there is little or no chance of a significantly disrupted Irma. The question is how much does it strengthen in the Straits.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9245 Postby caneman » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:42 am

Nimbus wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
Harvey & Charley were literally less than half the size of Irma. It's common knowledge that larger systems tend to take more time to ramp up than smaller ones. Very strange comparisons. This place is doom cast central today.

Anyway the eye is currently open to the NW, not expecting things to get any better for Irma for quite some time. We'll see if she bounces back as quickly as everybody here seems to think.


If she crosses 80w at 23N she will have had a fairly long period of interaction with land but since she is forecast to track through the same waters as Hurricane Charley for a fairly long time she will likely regenerate.


It is a critical forecast for people like Caneman on the beach off Tampa bay in a normally safe CBC with a good roof..


I have an older home without most of the modern day hurricane protection upgrades afforded to new home owners. Aside from damage to the home, Frances and Jeanne left us without power for 10 days and those were max winds of 70 here. So, my worse fear is that many of us will be without power for weeks, if not longer.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9246 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:42 am

jlauderdal wrote:
caneman wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
We'll see what type of shape the core is in when it finally starts to move away from Cuba later today.


Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.
listen to caneman...the system is in a very favorable area ot intensify, doesnt mean it will but intensity forecasting is extremely difficult..they are having a tough enough time figuring out the ridge let alone what happens with the core dynamics...everyone on the west coast prepare for a major just like we did on the east coast


good luck to west coast peeps...nbc6 miami just showed a very large tree down in miami..maybe those were 60 mph winds in that feeder band that sent that tree on top of the house


Indeed those bands are hundreds of miles long and can contain meso's will spin up a tornado or waterspout in the tails. That's not doom and gloom its fact.
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9247 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:42 am

NDG wrote:BTW, the eye is still closed as reported by the recon.

URNT12 KNHC 091029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/10:12:30Z
B. 22 deg 32 min N
079 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2546 m
D. 101 kt
E. 060 deg 18 nm
F. 141 deg 108 kt
G. 056 deg 25 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 11 C / 3045 m
J. 16 C / 3046 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 2611A IRMA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 112 KT 026 / 18 NM 08:32:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 12 KT
;


Yeah to be honesty its really obvious on the radar that the eyewall is still closed, its a little ragged on the western side for sure, but its still closed. The eye is in still a good shape, though for sure winds suggestive of a high 3 rather than 4 right now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9248 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:44 am

Irma is riding parallel to the coast, for now. The Euro actually had it going inland a little further this morning. If it stays on the current path then further weakening is not likely before going back to open waters.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9249 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:44 am

I'd still like to see Allen's 190 challenged, even if only briefly. Don't want it approaching land that way though.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9250 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:46 am

Langinbang187 wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
Langinbang187 wrote:
Not buying it personally. That core is going to need to take some serious time to rebuild itself, and the thing is STILL hugging the coast.


The Florida Straits and Florida Bay have 89 degree water, no shear, and nothing to prevent intensification. It can bomb out in less than 6 hours. Cuba is a flea fart in its development as the eye did not pass over the mountainous eastern region of the island.


I'm sorry, have you even looked at the storm compared to last night? The eye clearly didn't need to pass directly over the highest mountains to cause significant weakening. This thing doesn't exactly have 48+ hours over water to rebuild its core, it should have 24 or less. Not to mention it's still likely to weaken further as it's still going to be grazing the coast of Cuba for 6+ hours. Hell, look at all the time Ike had to rebuild it's core and it didn't really start to get it's inner structure figured back out until it was about to make landfall.


I'm going to defer to the pro mets as to why you're wrong on this, but understand something very important: Eastern GOM storms this time of year (Aug-Oct) can intensify in HOURS, not days. We have shallower water, 88+ degree SSTs, and normally favorable shear environments. That is why everyone I know around here is preparing for Cat 4 conditions from Naples to Bradenton. And Tampa had best pray it turns N and not NW to NNW only because there is sufficient time to build a major storm surge into Tampa Bay.

Godspeed to everyone in this monster's path. We are all going to have a long month down here.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9251 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:46 am

The Bahamas: First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall since Andrew (1992)

- Cuba: First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall since the Cuba Hurricane of 1924


https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/m ... ecords.pdf
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9252 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:46 am

Tornado Threat has me concerned too, Charley itself felt like going thru an EF2,
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9253 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:48 am

KWT wrote:
NDG wrote:OK we need to stop the personal attacks, Longinbang187 has his thinking that it will not restrengthen from the current state of Irma and going against the Euro, GFS and NHC that show landfall of a Cat 4.
He's right that Irma has probably gone down to a Cat 3 but I don't see that he is right that the core is in that bad of a shape.
Lets move on, Cat 3 or 4 it would still bring significant damaging surge to SW FL, is not going to make a difference.
Stop feeding a troll ;)


Yeah the damage in terms of storm surge is pretty much set in stone now whatever happens from here on out.

Also, even if it does weaken down to cat-3, that is still a major hurricane and even if it doesn't restrengthen your still looking at a powerful hurricane making landfall.

My guess though is it WILL restrengthen and will probably come in as a fierce top end cat-4. Thats where I'd nail my mast right now.


Agreed. I think Key West gets 150 mph+ and secondary landfall on the peninsula around that figure. I would not be shocked to see Cat 5 winds however from Key West to Marathon. This is going to be a historic storm for us down here and with the eye now set to pass over my house, it's going to really suck.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9254 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:49 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:I'd still like to see Allen's 190 challenged, even if only briefly. Don't want it approaching land that way though.


No thanks. I have no desire to be impaled by palm fronds.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9255 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:50 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:
The Bahamas: First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall since Andrew (1992)

- Cuba: First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall since the Cuba Hurricane of 1924


https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/m ... ecords.pdf


Which means the Keys will get the challenge to the 1935 Labor Day storm record. :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9256 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:50 am

Anybody else notice the 5 day cone of 'you don't want to be here' now includes the Nashville, TN area?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9257 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:52 am

The surge could be intense in Collier and Lee Counties. There are many brand new high dollar neighborhoods south of 41 and just 1 mile from open ocean. Looking pretty stupid to build there at this point.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9258 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:52 am

GeneratorPower wrote:According to IR satellite right now there is a fantastic core with fantastic clearly visible eye. It passed north of the NHC forecast point by about 10 mikes and is completely offshore right now. It's going to continue to skirt the Cuban islands but there is little or no chance of a significantly disrupted Irma. The question is how much does it strengthen in the Straits.


GP, I hope you're inland. Fort Myers is going to get the next beating it looks like. Good luck to ya!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9259 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:53 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
caneman wrote:
Are you that ignorant? Many people have tried to explain to you how it can and most likely will ramp up quickly. You stated your opinion once so move on. As someone who is in the direct path, i could give a rate azz about your opinion. I've lived here forever and seen many a storm blowup quickly in this region. Harvey ring a bell? Charley went up 2 or 3 categories after crossing Cuba and into the same waters.
listen to caneman...the system is in a very favorable area ot intensify, doesnt mean it will but intensity forecasting is extremely difficult..they are having a tough enough time figuring out the ridge let alone what happens with the core dynamics...everyone on the west coast prepare for a major just like we did on the east coast


good luck to west coast peeps...nbc6 miami just showed a very large tree down in miami..maybe those were 60 mph winds in that feeder band that sent that tree on top of the house


Indeed those bands are hundreds of miles long and can contain meso's will spin up a tornado or waterspout in the tails. That's not doom and gloom its fact.
definitely, we had a feeder band from a gulf storm over 10 years ago that took out power to 250k residents in sofla..it was really a one feeder band event...keep the shutters up and the generators ready in se florida..one coconut is all it takes so dont open the shutters especially later tonight and tomorrow
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#9260 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:53 am

GeneratorPower wrote:The surge could be intense in Collier and Lee Counties. There are many brand new high dollar neighborhoods south of 41 and just 1 mile from open ocean. Looking pretty stupid to build there at this point.


I often wondered who/why they built those $750K+ homes on the waterfront. They look great, have nice docks, beautiful country clubs, and are in Zone B. This storm is going to destroy our real estate market.... :double:
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