ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Connekto]

I wonder if that takes into consideration projectiles

[tolakram]

Miami International

Wind ENE @ 14
Gusts 28.0 mph

How far away is Irma?

[tolakram]

In reply to the response to my previous question - Thanks i see I have much, much more to learn because I have idea what that means

I have no idea what it means either.

[DTMEDIC]

Based on some selective trends that have been showing regarding a weaker hurricane making landfall, I hope this doesn't add to the large complacency factor at hand. An estimated quarter of the states population (5 Million of ~20 million) has evacuated their residence to either another state or nearby locale. In the end, if thing landfalls as a Cat 3, it will have done a lot less damage than the Cat 4/5 they were predicting to hit. It will be great that the damage lessened and lives would be put at a considerably smaller risk throughout the entire state. But, what happens the next time something like this happens? Will the thought of "They always weaken before landfall" or "We evacuated last time and nothing big happened".

THAt's a risk with every storm. And it happens after every storm.

I don't know that there's a way to prevent that. Better to over-prepare than to put people's lives at stake for the sake of "not crying wolf" all the time.

This is why I am generally not a proponent of overevacuation and tend to recommend people stay in safe places closer by. Honesty if I was in a shelter or with family in Fort Lauderdale I would want to go home and spend this storm in my own home(provided it's not in a surge zone)...but if you evacuated to Valdosta you are committed and won't be home for 4 days. It's the risk you take and many folks are fine with that. It's just not for me.

Completely agree with you on that. Not everyone has to evacuate or get out...and a shelter just isn't for me either so I don't blame them

[tallywx]

Long time lurker and weather nerd here - thanks to this forum I have learned so much. I do have a question about models. I have a basic, I think, understanding of how they work. What I am curious about is how they improve. I assume they incorporate actual data from a storm after the event is over and compare that to their predictions, and thereby gain reliability going forward?

not accurate at all. The computer models simply provide a numerical approximation to the Navier-Stokes equations, with sub grid scale processes paramaterized

Too bad there isn't an AI/deep learning bias correction component to the models. With all the machine learning being done these days using deep neural networks, the next generation of models should incorporate these processes in order to self-correct and improve based on "experience."

[Evil Jeremy]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF307-2611A-IRMA.png

How far out to the East would you say those Hurricane winds extend?

[Patrick99]

Based on some selective trends that have been showing regarding a weaker hurricane making landfall, I hope this doesn't add to the large complacency factor at hand. An estimated quarter of the states population (5 Million of ~20 million) has evacuated their residence to either another state or nearby locale. In the end, if thing landfalls as a Cat 3, it will have done a lot less damage than the Cat 4/5 they were predicting to hit. It will be great that the damage lessened and lives would be put at a considerably smaller risk throughout the entire state. But, what happens the next time something like this happens? Will the thought of "They always weaken before landfall" or "We evacuated last time and nothing big happened".

THAt's a risk with every storm. And it happens after every storm.

I don't know that there's a way to prevent that. Better to over-prepare than to put people's lives at stake for the sake of "not crying wolf" all the time.

This is why I am generally not a proponent of overevacuation and tend to recommend people stay in safe places closer by. Honesty if I was in a shelter or with family in Fort Lauderdale I would want to go home and spend this storm in my own home(provided it's not in a surge zone)...but if you evacuated to Valdosta you are committed and won't be home for 4 days. It's the risk you take and many folks are fine with that. It's just not for me.

Social media also plays into this, with many of our out of state friends screaming "LEAVE FLORIDA NOW!" on Facebook. As you say.....evacuation isn't *always* the best decision. I was not in an evacuation zone, but had the opportunity to drive out of state...decided not to, in large part because I was worried about how I'd get back.

[dukeblue219]

Long time lurker and weather nerd here - thanks to this forum I have learned so much. I do have a question about models. I have a basic, I think, understanding of how they work. What I am curious about is how they improve. I assume they incorporate actual data from a storm after the event is over and compare that to their predictions, and thereby gain reliability going forward?

not accurate at all. The computer models simply provide a numerical approximation to the Navier-Stokes equations, with sub grid scale processes paramaterized

Captain1 -- Remember that the global models are indeed global models. They aren't tracking a hurricane as a distinct entity that moves as a result of highs here, lows there, fronts coming through, and so forth, but are constantly computing how the atmosphere changes as a large continuous fluid. They're used for all kind of weather forecasting, and plotting the path of a hurricane is just one use of that data. So in that sense, the "event" is never really over. Certainly there are on-going tweaks to the computing power and to the sophistication of those computations, but someone with direct experience developing the models would have to answer if they ever make manual adjustments to process certain types of weather more realistically.

[PandaCitrus]

What are the chances Irma keep a going west and the ridge is just stronger than the models think? This has been the trend.

Why can't Irma make the turn 50 or 100 west of the Florida peninsula and hit the big bend middle panhandle?

[tolakram]

THAt's a risk with every storm. And it happens after every storm.

I don't know that there's a way to prevent that. Better to over-prepare than to put people's lives at stake for the sake of "not crying wolf" all the time.

This is why I am generally not a proponent of overevacuation and tend to recommend people stay in safe places closer by. Honesty if I was in a shelter or with family in Fort Lauderdale I would want to go home and spend this storm in my own home(provided it's not in a surge zone)...but if you evacuated to Valdosta you are committed and won't be home for 4 days. It's the risk you take and many folks are fine with that. It's just not for me.

Social media also plays into this, with many of our out of state friends screaming "LEAVE FLORIDA NOW!" on Facebook. As you say.....evacuation isn't *always* the best decision. I was not in an evacuation zone, but had the opportunity to drive out of state...decided not to, in large part because I was worried about how I'd get back.

Let's have this conversation AFTER THE EVENT HAPPENS. I'm tired of hearing people justify their decisions. You do it for you, don't tell us why it's right for you.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Now IRMA looks to back over water lets see how long it takes too wrap tight around the centre and fire up.

Not seeing Irma quite clear of Cuba as some posted...EYW radar shows it straddling the coast and moving along the coast...not out to sea. Sat pix shows a good portion overland and even a good chunk offshore the south coast of Cuba feeding on those warm seas. Forecast track has it coming off the coast at 18z and she looks to be on target for that....

You was referring too me, centre looks off the coast too me.

[tolakram]

What are the chances Irma keep a going west and the ridge is just stronger than the models think? This has been the trend.

Why can't Irma make the turn 50 or 100 west of the Florida peninsula and hit the big bend middle panhandle?

It can, that area is inside the cone.

[stormreader]

As long Irma keeps half of its circulation over water I don't see it weakening below Cat 3, its core is still in tact. It still has a chance to strengthen before making landfall in SW FL tomorrow afternoon, over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. IMO.

It has not weakened at all in the last several hours on the Cuban coast. Only weakening was down from a Cat 5 upon first diving, and making a penetration of the Cuban coast. No Cat 5 is possible doing that. But she's still a 3-4 storm on the coast! Look at that radar loop. Ready to come off the coast now, into the Straits, and is at this moment a very tightly wound up major hurricane. Gonna be some very decent intensification, I think. Highest intensity will probably be just north of the keys, if she takes that exact route--somewhere near Naples.

[SoupBone]

As long Irma keeps half of its circulation over water I don't see it weakening below Cat 3, its core is still in tact. It still has a chance to strengthen before making landfall in SW FL tomorrow afternoon, over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. IMO.

Is it not amazing how she's doing just that?

[Michele B]

Forward speed has slowed down considerably now, I see with the 11 Advisory.

I expect the next advisory shows more NW or NNW. The turn is coming.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Big Easy Breeze]

What are the chances Irma keep a going west and the ridge is just stronger than the models think? This has been the trend.

Why can't Irma make the turn 50 or 100 west of the Florida peninsula and hit the big bend middle panhandle?

It can, that area is inside the cone.

Follow the NHC cone of probability. The cone of probability is dynamic; it changes. Outside of that, I do not know what else to say.

A key to the latest advisory, is not the motion, but the speed. It has slowed down quite a bit. 9 mph.

[PTPatrick]

It's crazy how much Cuba took off of the size of the CDO. She looks half the size she was last night. For the pros, do you think she will still be monster size when she emerges? Or will this have tightened her up.

I've seen in past storms where land seemed to spread them out, others where they seemed to help me tighten.

You can also see that ring of dry air on radar unless it's a reflectivity thing. If it isn't a radar distance thing it'll take some time to shake that off.

[PandaCitrus]

Storm surge now forecast to be 10 to 15 feet along southwest Florida. I hope people there have taken Irma seriously. It's a life threatening situation on Sanibel island, Marco island, Naples, ft Myers beach, cape coral.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906534996411904000




Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
All ECMWF ensembles show significant intensification once #Irma leaves Cuba. Even though storm is slightly weaker, won't be for long.