ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormreader]

G Cane did some good posting earlier in this regards, referring to the atmospheric environment in the Straits, just how primed everything is for storm development. Along with Irma's own latent energy (sustaining high intensity over incredible time and distance), another factor in its being able to maintain the core over the last several hours on the coast could be the prime conditions themselves in the Straits. I think this a harbinger for really solid intensification once the storm is clear of the coast.

[PandaCitrus]

Wow, over half the euro ensembles don't make landfall till north of Clearwater. This creates the worst possible storm surge into tampa bay and more time for irma to maintain strength or strengthen.

[CrazyC83]

[twe et]https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906534996411904000[/tweet]

Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
All ECMWF ensembles show significant intensification once #Irma leaves Cuba. Even though storm is slightly weaker, won't be for long.

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/yMmDXwt.png[/img]

Notice as well with Irma right on the beach, it is to the right of nearly all those ensembles.

[stormreader]

Storm surge now forecast to be 10 to 15 feet along southwest Florida. I hope people there have taken Irma seriously. It's a life threatening situation on Sanibel island, Marco island, Naples, ft Myers beach, cape coral.

When you get a storm surge of 15 ft, all bets are off.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Storm surge now forecast to be 10 to 15 feet along southwest Florida. I hope people there have taken Irma seriously. It's a life threatening situation on Sanibel island, Marco island, Naples, ft Myers beach, cape coral.

Something people need to understand. Potential tidal surge does not immediately come down with a reduction in a hurricane's intensity. It takes time for the surge to come down, as compared to the winds. Once a hurricane has reached such an intense level, the wave action and tidal surge remains for quite some time.

Do not be fooled by Irma's recent degradation to CAT 3 intensity. The winds have come down, BUT the wave action and surge still remain at this time.

[tolakram]

Wow, over half the euro ensembles don't make landfall till north of Clearwater. This creates the worst possible storm surge into tampa bay and more time for irma to maintain strength or strengthen.

I should have posted this in the models thread. Those ensembles don't hold equal weight and can't be used for predicting a track. The point is for all the crazy scenarios modeled all increase intensity.

[stormreader]

[tw eet]https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906534996411904000[/tweet]

Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
All ECMWF ensembles show significant intensification once #Irma leaves Cuba. Even though storm is slightly weaker, won't be for long.

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/yMmDXwt.png[/img]

Notice as well with Irma right on the beach, it is to the right of nearly all those ensembles.

Yeah, most of those ensembles have Irma too deeply embedded into Cuba. She's very near coming off the coast now. Maybe next 2 hours or so she'll be coming off.

[tolakram]

Latest NHC track

[northjaxpro]

Official now. Northeast Florida is now under Hurricane Warning per 11a.m. advisory.

[tolakram]

[MrJames]

Official now. Northeast Florida is now under Hurricane Warning per 11a.m. advisory.

Just got two emergency texts for that.

[norva]

Will likely be a 4 at landfall, as warm as the water is I am not sure it has time to ramp up to a 5 again.

[AutoPenalti]

6 hour gap for a distance of 25-30 miles? That's incredibly slow.

[MBryant]

Five People can look at the same radar and see five different things based on what they are looking for. I have looked and see wobbles and the southern side of the eye fill in, but no change in the direction while others detect a slowing and others see a northwesterly turn. It takes a while to find out who is right.

[PTPatrick]

I just did a little map scan of the tidal flooding areas in sw Florida and holy crap I never realized how many communities are essentially like man made islands. There's whole towns that have waterfront lagoons at every house, like Venice or something(see Cape Coral, punta Gorda)...that's going to be something else. Folks that went thru Charley along some of these areas that got next to no surge will be flooded majorly. Looking on real estate app they don't really look elevated either

[Ziltoid]

Here are some webcams for different areas, including the Keys:

http://basik.co/

[ava_ati]

Latest NHC track

https://i.imgur.com/nAlk2ur.png

Wow, worst case scenario incoming, pushing water up the gulf coast and maintaining major hurricane strength up to almost Tallahassee

[funster]

It looks like it is deepening again. That can make it difficult to determine the direction in the short term. Impressive intensification http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-200-1-10

[WeatherGuesser]

If that current five day track holds true, I may have to do some preparations like getting gas for the generator and picking up loose things by Monday. Ike was NOT kind to the Ohio Valley at all.

[jasons2k]

This is just not good folks. She's wobbled a little to the north now so it's a bit more offshore, and at the same time the coastline starts to bend west, so the separation from Cuba appears to be happening now. Core still intact (and looking better with each frame) and she's about to hit the jet fuel with no shear. This absolutely could become a Cat 5 again.

Remember...Harvey looked nothing like this and quickly ramped-up to Cat 4. Anyone in a surge zone in SW Florida needs to stop waiting for changes (or hope) and get out now!!