ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 2-96-1-100

[tatlopuyo]

I still have a feeling this system will keep going w/wnw than the forecasted nw track. Strong systems tend to do that here in the wespac.

[MBryant]

It looks like it is deepening again. That can make it difficult to determine the direction in the short term. Impressive intensification http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-200-1-10

Rapid Intensification phase?

[jasons2k]

I still have a feeling this system will keep going w/wnw than the forecasted nw track. Strong systems tend to do that here in the wespac.

Very doubtful. New GFS doesn't agree, either. Signs the western edge of the ridge may be receding a bit too. Should start pulling more NW now, if she hasn't already. Will be off to the races soon.

[nutkin517]

It looks like it is going to sit in the same area for about 12 hours, am I reading that right? If so, that's a ton of rainfall on top of the surge.

I feel like FL may have bungled this evacuation a little by focusing on the Miami area for so long.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Storm surge now forecast to be 10 to 15 feet along southwest Florida. I hope people there have taken Irma seriously. It's a life threatening situation on Sanibel island, Marco island, Naples, ft Myers beach, cape coral.

Something people need to understand. Potential tidal surge does not immediately come down with a reduction in a hurricane's intensity. It takes time for the surge to come down, as compared to the winds. Once a hurricane has reached such an intense level, the wave action and tidal surge remains for quite some time.

Do not be fooled by Irma's recent degradation to CAT 3 intensity. The winds have come down, BUT the wave action and surge still remain at this time.

Louisiana is a good example... ike hit TX, yet our parish flooded from storm surge.. Same as Rita, she hit TX/LA border. We still took the surge. It flooded some of the homes the lower-end on the parish.

[Sanibel]

Breezy here on Sanibel...Hazy sun and obvious low level band clouds...No rain...Very near to completion...Got steel braces on main living room and dining room shutters...


Need shower and will re-box computer tower right before going...

[Exalt]

It might be more east than the NHC's track. The way it just bounced up has me thinking east, maybe center south FL.

Also wow, the re-intensification of the eye and as soon as it bounced back off the coast is astounding.. The rebuilt convection is intense as well, she's really making use of those outflow channels.

[nutkin517]

Storm surge now forecast to be 10 to 15 feet along southwest Florida. I hope people there have taken Irma seriously. It's a life threatening situation on Sanibel island, Marco island, Naples, ft Myers beach, cape coral.

Something people need to understand. Potential tidal surge does not immediately come down with a reduction in a hurricane's intensity. It takes time for the surge to come down, as compared to the winds. Once a hurricane has reached such an intense level, the wave action and tidal surge remains for quite some time.

Do not be fooled by Irma's recent degradation to CAT 3 intensity. The winds have come down, BUT the wave action and surge still remain at this time.

Louisiana is a good example... ike hit TX, yet our parish flooded from storm surge.. Same as Rita, she hit TX/LA border. We still took the surge. It flooded some of the homes the lower-end on the parish.

Yeah, Ike made landfall near Galveston but Bridge City (here in SETX) was completely underwater, up to the roof of 99% of buildings in the city. Orange didn't fair much better.

[jasons2k]

Already a 62mph gust at Homestead AFB. This storm is huge and will affect the whole state.

[rickybobby]

What are the odds going east?

[tatlopuyo]

I still have a feeling this system will keep going w/wnw than the forecasted nw track. Strong systems tend to do that here in the wespac.

Very doubtful. New GFS doesn't agree, either. Signs the western edge of the ridge may be receding a bit too. Should start pulling more NW now, if she hasn't already. Will be off to the races soon.

I remember gfs model forecasted that too during haiyan that it will go nw after landfall in leyte to the ncr area. I think all models forecasted that. Even jtwc and haiyan keeps moving w/wnw throughout. Cat 4 and 5 seems to do that all the time. Experienced it first hand when they forecasted a typhoon to land in northern part of luzon and it ended up here in the ncr region a couple of times.

[MBryant]

It looks like it is deepening again. That can make it difficult to determine the direction in the short term. Impressive intensification http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-200-1-10

Rapid Intensification phase?

[Exalt]

I would call for very rapid deepening, the eye is starting to clear out way faster than I thought it would and the convection flare as soon as the eye re-entered the water is scary.

[AutoPenalti]

2 more hours left till it's projected bend towards the North.

[jasons2k]

It looks like it is going to sit in the same area for about 12 hours, am I reading that right? If so, that's a ton of rainfall on top of the surge.

I feel like FL may have bungled this evacuation a little by focusing on the Miami area for so long.

They didn't bungle anything. If you are in the cone, you prepare for the worst, as they did. In fact, I've never seen a state more prepared for a storm, and the gov't officials have done an outstanding job of warning and preparing the public.

[Airboy]

It looks like it is deepening again. That can make it difficult to determine the direction in the short term. Impressive intensification http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-200-1-10

Yeah, when moves away from land I'm pretty sure it will get back to a 4 pretty fast and maybe a 5 again tomorrow.

[Exalt]

What are the odds going east?

Higher than they were before IMO, Irma seems to be going N instead of NW or WNW with the latest bounce/wobble..

[tolakram]

Breezy here on Sanibel...Hazy sun and obvious low level band clouds...No rain...Very near to completion...Got steel braces on main living room and dining room shutters...


Need shower and will re-box computer tower right before going...

Good luck, I'm glad to hear you are going to a shelter. Hoping for the best.

[SFLcane]

Miami dade and broward down to 10% chance of hurricane force it's now more like a TS event down here. Glad serious impacts not expected here