ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

more i look look north movement not nw or wnw unless wobble but look less as wobble (( may be nw track))

[stormreader]

I think the potential for rapid intensification over the next 12-24 hours is very possible. Not looking good for the FL Keys right now at all... I think once Irma passes the Keys, increasingly vertical wind shear may keep the storm in check, but by that time, Irma will likely be back to at least a category 4 hurricane. The storm surge along the SW FL coast will be very dangerous! Please evacuate from mandatory evacuation zones before it's too late!

I agree. At least a Cat 4. Giving credit to TWC's main on air host, who said he could not rule out a Cat 5. 150 mph storm seems very reasonable, and I think 160 mph is in play with a good 24-36 hours of intensification.

[HurricaneBelle]

Well guys the worst cast scenario has indeed unfolded. Have shuttered the house, grabbed valuables, papers, food, clothing and our family is headed out the surge zone of coastal hernando county with boat in tow to a local home of a friend out of the surge zone. I pleaded with my neighbors not to ride this one out but to no avail. I hope to have a house when i get back but honestly know there is a chance it will be heavily damaged. I'm with you sanibel, same situation, just further north. Holding out a sliver of hope she'll be weaker by the time she hits here.

I hear you. Same situation here in Clearwater. Although I'm not in a flood zone, I am not confident in my (rented) house and for various reasons which I'm not going to go into here, I wasn't able to board up. I will be riding it out at my brother's in East Hudson, well away from US 19 & surge areas in a new, hurricane-rated home with no trees around it.

[NDG]

Amazing how it has been able to stay away from entering the mainland of Cuba.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Getting ready here in Hillsborough County. I'm not sure how much I'll be able to post tomorrow, but I'll try to keep you guys updated. Latest track brings the eye/NE eyewall right over me.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/906556125176385539




Jonathan Erdman ✔ @wxjerdman
Avg. adult male is 5' 6" tall. #Irma peak surge fcsts are >2x that tall. If in the forecast surge zone, get out now. http://bit.ly/2jdb1AQ
12:33 PM - Sep 9, 2017

[Evil Jeremy]

Four quick power surges over the last half hour at home. Doesn't bode well this far out.

[nascarfan999]

G-bye Cuba.... eye moving back into Florida straights and up next is SW Florida, via - Key West. Eyewall held together pretty good and seeing very cold cloud tops around center. Homestead AFB just had gust to 62mph.

Geez, that tells you a lot. 62 mph squall quite a distance from the center.

Buoy just off the coast of Miami has had sustained winds in the 30-40kt range for the last hour. Current gusts as high as 68 MPH.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1

[emeraldislenc]

It looks like it is getting ready to re intensify does not look good for the keys and Florida looks like a north movement over the past hour or at least a wnw movement

[StormingB81]

I live in Rockledge in brevard county and just took a ride and it almost seems business as usual here. Minus a few places that are shut there are still lots of people out and about.

[GCANE]

At times like this I really wish GCANE was hyper active on these boards with CAPE and theta-e ridge forecasts.

LOL, thanks.

Actually not too much to update other than very persistant high CAPE off the west coast of FL.
This is where intensification could be likely.

Based on current trajectory of the eye and the contour of the Cuba coast, Irma will be getting into more water in the next few hours.
Hot towers firing off on the eyewall will be the thing to watch.

The outer bands over S FL are already firing some and seeing Tornadic Vortex Signature in one.

One big worry is this part of the woods has a history where TC's make unexpected and quick turns.

[jlauderdal]

ok look more north movement if that movement east coast could get more wind i going keep eye on that if moving toward keywest or middle keys

Did you leave your mobile home?

[emeraldislenc]

How far from Miami is the buoy?

[floridasun78]

ok look more north movement if that movement east coast could get more wind i going keep eye on that if moving toward keywest or middle keys

Did you leave your mobile home?

yes

[GOMOilFieldRadioOp]

Anybody thinking this "could" be a GOM storm? No significant turn yet.

[Preemptivestrike]

She appears to be blowing up in the last couple of frames IMO.

[psyclone]

[quote="SFLcane"]Miami dade and broward down to 10% chance of hurricane force it's now more like a TS event down here. Glad serious impacts not expected here[/quote

I remember that feeling

[tolakram]

Anybody thinking this "could" be a GOM storm? No significant turn yet.

Very very low to no chance, plus conditions in the GOM unfavorable with > 40kts shear, it would be torn apart.

[Blown Away]

It appears Irma making that turn a bit early and is right of the Euro ensembles... Let's see if it's just a wobble or a turn... Just an amateur analysis only...

[FLeastcoast]

Storm surge now forecast to be 10 to 15 feet along southwest Florida. I hope people there have taken Irma seriously. It's a life threatening situation on Sanibel island, Marco island, Naples, ft Myers beach, cape coral.

When you get a storm surge of 15 ft, all bets are off.

Do you think that this storm surge will extend out beyond
The mandatory evac zone in cape coral area due to this storm being so large?