ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Agua]

Yeah, good luck Ronjon

[CourierPR]

more i look look north movement not nw or wow unless wobble but look less as wobble (( may be nw track))

Good point and I was waiting for someone to mention this. To my untrained eyes, it appears to be lifting NNW.

[meriland29]

She looks to be reestablishing herself and looks to be heading N of Cuba now
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[stormhunter7]

Seeing a lot of dry air over NW Fla./Bama/MS.... and moving south into central GOM... this will be interesting to see how Irma handles it.

[tolakram]

more i look look north movement not nw or wow unless wobble but look less as wobble (( may be nw track))

Good point and I was waiting for someone to mention this. To my untrained eyes, it appears to be lifting NNW.

Yep, I think it is as well.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

[jasons2k]

Storm surge now forecast to be 10 to 15 feet along southwest Florida. I hope people there have taken Irma seriously. It's a life threatening situation on Sanibel island, Marco island, Naples, ft Myers beach, cape coral.

When you get a storm surge of 15 ft, all bets are off.

Do you think that this storm surge will extend out beyond
The mandatory evac zone in cape coral area due to this storm being so large?

It's definitely possible. The surge with Ike caught a lot of people off-guard and this will be much worse. If you're even debating...just go now.

[SoupBone]

Amazing how it has been able to stay away from entering the mainland of Cuba.

I posted something similar earlier. We all know these are not sentient beings, but they sure as hell act like they are sometimes. She doesn't want to lose her eye.

[jhpigott]

At times like this I really wish GCANE was hyper active on these boards with CAPE and theta-e ridge forecasts.

LOL, thanks.

Actually not too much to update other than very persistant high CAPE off the west coast of FL.
This is where intensification could be likely.

Based on current trajectory of the eye and the contour of the Cuba coast, Irma will be getting into more water in the next few hours.
Hot towers firing off on the eyewall will be the thing to watch.

The outer bands over S FL are already firing some and seeing Tornadic Vortex Signature in one.

One big worry is this part of the woods has a history where TC's make unexpected and quick turns.

Spine runner not out of the question?

[psyclone]

Well guys the worst cast scenario has indeed unfolded. Have shuttered the house, grabbed valuables, papers, food, clothing and our family is headed out the surge zone of coastal hernando county with boat in tow to a local home of a friend out of the surge zone. I pleaded with my neighbors not to ride this one out but to no avail. I hope to have a house when i get back but honestly know there is a chance it will be heavily damaged. I'm with you sanibel, same situation, just further north. Holding out a sliver of hope she'll be weaker by the time she hits here.

I hear you. Same situation here in Clearwater. Although I'm not in a flood zone, I am not confident in my (rented) house and for various reasons which I'm not going to go into here, I wasn't able to board up. I will be riding it out at my brother's in East Hudson, well away from US 19 & surge areas in a new, hurricane-rated home with no trees around it.

I am also planning on vacating my condo out of fear of large falling trees and riding the storm out in safety harbor with at friend's place.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Stay safe everyone crunch time is coming fast for South Florida.

[NDG]

Amazing convergance that that has been going on across the coastal waters of central FL since yesterday afternoon, the circulation around Irma and the old front is causing all these storms well ahead of Irma.

[northjaxpro]

Amazing how it has been able to stay away from entering the mainland of Cuba.

Yes she is rapidly reorganizing her inner core. Irma just about to re-emerge over open water and with her impressive outflow channel already in place, plus near 90 degree sea surface temps in that region of the FL Straits, it will be lift off for Irma to possibly rapidly intensify before the next landfall on the Southern tip or SW tip of the Florida coast.

[TJRE]

OPC 24hr wind and wave cast

39ft seas.....in the channel

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrww.gif

[tolakram]

Seeing a lot of dry air over NW Fla./Bama/MS.... and moving south into central GOM... this will be interesting to see how Irma handles it.

That's the front and Irma will use it for enhanced outflow up until near the coast but eventually get under that shear and start to weaken. It appears landfall will be just before the wall of shear, but of course that's hard to say.

[ObsessedMiami]

I don't get that storm surge map on the Erdman tweet calling for 6 foot inundation along Miami coast when NHC storm surge prediction map shows minimal surge along the SFL coast. Where is getting those numbers?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/095407.shtml?inundation#contents

[weathaguyry]

A very good tool that I didn't think about, but if anyone has Snapchat, there is a map, and if you click on a specific area, it will show you all of the videos and pictures from the area

[tolakram]

DO NOT PUT IMAGE TAGS AROUND LINKS TO OTHER WEATHER SITES

This puts a massive load on their servers as each person who tries to view this thread loads the image. Just post the URL or copy to an image hosting site first.

Posts that violate this rule will be deleted without warning.

Thanks.

[Raebie]

I'm terrified for those folks who decided to stay on the Keys. I saw estimates of 15-30K. I hope that's wrong.

[dgparent]

DO NOT PUT IMAGE TAGS AROUND LINKS TO OTHER WEATHER SITES

This puts a massive load on their servers as each person who tries to view this thread loads the image. Just post the URL or copy to an image hosting site first.

Posts that violate this rule will be deleted without warning.

Thanks.

Can't you just disallow that in the admin area ? Posts will look messed up but it at leasts stops the images from loading

[FLeastcoast]

When you get a storm surge of 15 ft, all bets are off.

Do you think that this storm surge will extend out beyond
The mandatory evac zone in cape coral area due to this storm being so large?

It's definitely possible. The surge with Ike caught a lot of people off-guard and this will be much worse. If you're even debating...just go now.

it is my 2 sons and their families with toddlers and an infant. We've been begging them to get out. 5 min from mandatory evac zone. Any data to show them where other storms have gone beyond the storm surge boundaries???