ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Zarniwoop]

Euro not forecasting it to explode.

Moderate strengthening to about 928 at landfall is current I believe.

I do understand that's still a terrible storm with life-threatening effects. And also that it's size makes it more difficult. Whether the higher winds make it down to the surface will also be interesting.

[Kingarabian]

NOAA2 from tropicaltidbits.com:

195130 2415N 08028W 6957 03028 9861 +116 +110 088083 083 058 010 00
195200 2413N 08028W 6958 03020 9852 +117 +107 091078 083 059 017 00
195230 2411N 08028W 6956 03017 9841 +117 //// 093076 080 060 017 05
195300 2409N 08028W 6963 03001 9831 +121 //// 096071 072 062 008 01
195330 2407N 08028W 6956 03003 9823 +123 //// 096081 083 063 008 01
195400 2405N 08028W 6956 02998 9819 +120 //// 095071 074 063 009 01
195430 2403N 08028W 6955 02994 9812 +121 +120 093069 071 063 007 00
195500 2401N 08028W 6957 02984 9802 +125 +116 093069 070 064 004 00
195530 2359N 08028W 6961 02974 9797 +125 +113 093071 072 063 004 00
195600 2357N 08028W 6957 02972 9793 +122 +116 093074 076 063 002 00
195630 2355N 08028W 6957 02967 9782 +125 +115 092076 076 067 004 00
195700 2353N 08028W 6951 02965 9774 +124 +119 092075 075 063 004 00
195730 2351N 08028W 6954 02950 9763 +123 +123 092078 079 062 006 00
195800 2349N 08028W 6957 02939 9755 +122 +120 092079 080 064 006 00
195830 2347N 08028W 6953 02933 9742 +123 +120 090080 081 067 004 00
195900 2345N 08028W 6952 02920 9727 +126 +119 090084 086 071 006 00
195930 2343N 08028W 6960 02899 9701 +138 +116 086084 086 071 012 00
200000 2341N 08028W 6945 02901 9690 +129 +122 087088 092 073 012 00
200030 2339N 08028W 6954 02870 9670 +128 //// 086092 093 076 014 01
200100 2337N 08028W 6954 02854 9649 +130 +127 087097 098 077 013 00

[SFLcane]

All buttoned up here in Western Port St. Lucie. Now just to wait for Irma to see what she has for us. Think we'll see some decent wind here but nothing like what Naples and Fort Myers is going to experience. I'm leaving my weather station up to monitor it as long as I have power and internet. If anyone would like to follow it on Wunderground the station ID is KFLPORTS97. As long as I have power and internet it will still broadcast...as long as it doesn't blow away.

Hey SouthFLTropics My grandma lives in your area NWS barely forecasting TS winds and EURO shows 80-90 mph gusts so not really sure what to believe lol. I just saw there lifting evas along the eastcoast almost giving the all clear on some channels.

[dukeblue219]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 20:20Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 20:06:42Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°13'N 80°27'W (23.2167N 80.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 73 statute miles (118 km) to the N (360°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,543m (8,343ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (~ 108.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the N (359°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 84° at 99kts (From the E at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the N (359°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 935mb (27.61 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,065m (10,056ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

[Steve]

Anybody got a good sense of what wind gusts Tallahassee will see. Looking more and more like they could end up in a western eyewall situation...in so much as it'll have one up there.

TS probably. If the ECMWF Ensembles are closer to that part of the track, high end TS/Cat 1ish? Higher? I think if you go to the us.weather site and run the wind parameters for the different models you will have a better idea. I haven't figured out how to navigate their menus in any kind of coordinated way yet or I'd link them.

[craptacular]

Pressure down to 935 from last VDM.

[KBBOCA]

I assume others may have already posted this while I've been posting a bunch of tweets here in the past 30 minutes, but in case not:

SPECIAL EMERGENCY MESSAGE FROM NWS MIAMI:

CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE RISK FOR SW FLORIDA!!!

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906602929305649153




NWS Miami‏Verified account @NWSMiami

SPECIAL EMERGENCY MESSAGE from the National Weather Service in Miami

YOU TUBE LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IJ1k0u2RvM

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure down to 935 from last VDM.

With a 25 kt surface wind. Pressure likely down to 933 mb. This TC appears to be deepening very quickly.

[eastcoastFL]

All buttoned up here in Western Port St. Lucie. Now just to wait for Irma to see what she has for us. Think we'll see some decent wind here but nothing like what Naples and Fort Myers is going to experience. I'm leaving my weather station up to monitor it as long as I have power and internet. If anyone would like to follow it on Wunderground the station ID is KFLPORTS97. As long as I have power and internet it will still broadcast...as long as it doesn't blow away.

I fled to Davenport FL but came back to my mother's home in Western PSL. So I'll be ok in touch with you as long as we have power.

[WeatherOrKnot]

All buttoned up here in Western Port St. Lucie. Now just to wait for Irma to see what she has for us. Think we'll see some decent wind here but nothing like what Naples and Fort Myers is going to experience. I'm leaving my weather station up to monitor it as long as I have power and internet. If anyone would like to follow it on Wunderground the station ID is KFLPORTS97. As long as I have power and internet it will still broadcast...as long as it doesn't blow away.

Hey SouthFLTropics My grandma lives in your area NWS barely forecasting TS winds and EURO shows 80-90 mph gusts so not really sure what to believe lol. I just saw there lifting evas along the eastcoast almost giving the all clear on some channels.

I know in PBC we're under a curfew. So I can't see them lifting the evac warnings.

[HenkL]

URNT12 KWBC 091840
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/18:30:41Z
B. 23 deg 08 min N
080 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2579 m
D. 82 kt
E. 305 deg 11 nm
F. 026 deg 92 kt
G. 304 deg 14 nm
H. 939 mb
I. 13 C / 3050 m
J. 18 C / 3066 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. NOAA2 2711A IRMA OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 98 KT 088 / 18 NM 18:35:03Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 09 KTS


URNT12 KWBC 092020
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/20:06:42Z
B. 23 deg 13 min N
080 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2543 m
D. 94 kt
E. 359 deg 16 nm
F. 084 deg 99 kt
G. 359 deg 22 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 12 C / 3060 m
J. 19 C / 3065 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. NOAA2 2711A IRMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 99 KT 359 / 22 NM 20:01:26Z
SEC MAX FL WIND 85 KT; BRNG:360 deg RNG:65 nm
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 25 KTS

[Kingarabian]

URNT15 KWBC 092011
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 18 20170909
200130 2335N 08028W 6951 02827 9616 +132 //// 086095 099 082 031 01
200200 2333N 08028W 6906 02851 9573 +136 //// 086087 093 084 033 01
200230 2331N 08028W 6952 02771 9536 +147 //// 082087 089 088 012 01
200300 2329N 08028W 6957 02735 9506 +153 +143 083088 089 093 009 00
200330 2327N 08028W 6957 02704 9469 +157 +127 082091 092 086 006 00
200400 2325N 08028W 6956 02664 9415 +170 +121 082091 093 081 007 00
200430 2322N 08028W 6963 02623 9378 +168 +148 080061 067 069 007 00
200500 2320N 08027W 6956 02615 9353 +175 +151 075031 039 040 003 00
200530 2318N 08027W 6957 02609 9340 +185 +143 073016 019 024 003 03
200600 2316N 08027W 6957 02604 9341 +179 +144 096012 013 015 001 03
200630 2314N 08027W 6965 02589 9331 +183 +146 125008 011 016 000 03
200700 2312N 08027W 6952 02612 9343 +172 +150 265030 039 015 000 03
200730 2311N 08025W 6957 02621 9366 +164 +152 249045 046 /// /// 03
200800 2312N 08022W 6957 02626 9374 +163 +159 225045 047 /// /// 03
200830 2313N 08020W 6960 02624 9378 +162 //// 207049 056 070 006 05
200900 2315N 08018W 6965 02642 9400 +161 +160 186071 082 082 016 00
200930 2316N 08016W 6970 02678 9456 +151 //// 178091 094 085 012 01
201000 2316N 08013W 6954 02738 9505 +147 +130 175083 084 086 008 00
201030 2317N 08011W 6966 02752 9539 +144 +140 178083 085 083 017 00
201100 2317N 08009W 6947 02800 9573 +135 //// 183088 092 085 023 01

URNT15 KWBC 092021
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 19 20170909
201130 2317N 08007W 6956 02817 9610 +129 //// 177092 093 079 021 01
201200 2317N 08005W 6959 02835 9637 +131 +116 179089 091 075 011 00
201230 2317N 08003W 6969 02846 9663 +130 +120 180085 086 076 009 00
201300 2317N 08000W 6957 02876 9681 +129 +118 179087 088 072 007 00
201330 2317N 07958W 6956 02897 9699 +127 //// 177084 085 069 007 01
201400 2317N 07956W 6952 02918 9714 +127 //// 179081 084 065 013 01
201430 2317N 07954W 6954 02922 9729 +124 //// 178082 084 062 016 05
201500 2317N 07952W 6971 02912 9744 +121 //// 176082 082 061 008 01
201530 2317N 07950W 6957 02937 9754 +122 //// 178079 080 060 007 01
201600 2318N 07947W 6957 02949 9764 +123 +122 179079 080 059 007 00
201630 2319N 07945W 6952 02967 9777 +121 +119 174080 080 057 008 00
201700 2321N 07943W 6958 02962 9784 +121 //// 175078 079 056 008 01
201730 2322N 07941W 6960 02968 9789 +122 +120 174075 076 060 007 00
201800 2324N 07940W 6964 02971 9799 +121 //// 172075 078 061 006 01
201830 2326N 07938W 6956 02988 9806 +122 +119 170070 072 065 003 00
201900 2327N 07936W 6955 02995 9814 +121 +115 168069 069 062 004 00
201930 2329N 07934W 6968 02982 9820 +121 +113 170070 071 059 005 00
202000 2331N 07932W 6949 03008 9829 +114 +113 173071 073 068 019 03
202030 2333N 07930W 6951 03009 9825 +120 //// 166078 080 069 019 05
202100 2334N 07929W 6957 03008 9826 +123 //// 163073 076 063 011 01

URNT15 KWBC 092031
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 20 20170909
202130 2336N 07927W 6955 03019 9837 +121 //// 163071 072 062 009 01
202200 2338N 07925W 6961 03014 9841 +122 //// 164073 075 060 008 01
202230 2339N 07923W 6953 03026 9849 +119 //// 164071 072 060 008 01
202300 2341N 07921W 6958 03026 9858 +117 //// 162075 078 058 012 05
202330 2343N 07920W 6958 03031 9862 +117 //// 158077 079 056 013 05
202400 2344N 07918W 6955 03042 9872 +113 //// 151079 079 054 010 01
202430 2346N 07916W 6957 03041 9878 +114 +114 147081 082 055 010 00
202500 2347N 07915W 6964 03041 9889 +109 //// 151080 082 054 011 01
202530 2349N 07913W 6947 03064 9894 +109 //// 149077 078 055 011 01
202600 2350N 07911W 6952 03060 9898 +109 //// 143080 081 055 010 01
202630 2352N 07910W 6957 03060 9905 +107 //// 143080 083 056 008 01
202700 2353N 07908W 6958 03063 9910 +107 //// 145080 082 052 009 01
202730 2355N 07906W 6950 03076 9917 +106 //// 150085 086 050 012 01
202800 2356N 07905W 6958 03071 9921 +107 //// 152084 086 050 012 01
202830 2358N 07903W 6960 03073 9928 +105 //// 152084 085 049 010 01
202900 2359N 07901W 6957 03082 9936 +103 //// 154082 083 049 010 01
202930 2401N 07900W 6956 03088 9943 +102 //// 151078 081 047 011 01
203000 2403N 07858W 6952 03096 9946 +102 //// 148075 075 045 013 01
203030 2404N 07856W 6954 03095 9952 +099 //// 145073 074 044 012 01
203100 2406N 07855W 6961 03090 9958 +097 //// 144072 073 045 010 01

[CaptinCrunch]

Irma will continue to strengthen all the way to landfall. Don't think it will make it back to C5 status, but C4 is pretty much guaranteed.

[Frank P]

recent radar loops shows Irma still pretty close to the NHC track, maybe a touch northeast... got to admit that have been great with their forecasts to date.. best in the world in what they do... cudos...
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[ALhurricane]

Euro not forecasting it to explode.

Moderate strengthening to about 928 at landfall is current I believe.

I do understand that's still a terrible storm with life-threatening effects. And also that it's size makes it more difficult. Whether the higher winds make it down to the surface will also be interesting.

At the current rate of deepening, it will be at 928mb by midnight.

[eastcoastFL]

All buttoned up here in Western Port St. Lucie. Now just to wait for Irma to see what she has for us. Think we'll see some decent wind here but nothing like what Naples and Fort Myers is going to experience. I'm leaving my weather station up to monitor it as long as I have power and internet. If anyone would like to follow it on Wunderground the station ID is KFLPORTS97. As long as I have power and internet it will still broadcast...as long as it doesn't blow away.

Hey SouthFLTropics My grandma lives in your area NWS barely forecasting TS winds and EURO shows 80-90 mph gusts so not really sure what to believe lol. I just saw there lifting evas along the eastcoast almost giving the all clear on some channels.

I know in PBC we're under a curfew. So I can't see them lifting the evac warnings.

St Lucie county lifted evacs and no curfew

[KBBOCA]

Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits 27m27 minutes ago

Molasses Reef, just off Key Largo is reporting sustained winds of 49 mph w/ gusts to 56 mph. Tropical Storm conditions in SFL already. #Irma
0 replies 29 retweets 15 likes

Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 23m23 minutes ago

The eye of #Irma showing up well on radar now. Keys already gusting 50+mph. Expected to make landfall very near Key West Sunday morning.

 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906610251859939328

[weathaguyry]

Things like this scare me

[KBBOCA]

An amazing article from an NWS scientist in Key West:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/ ... ave-lives/

SO THANKFUL FOR THEIR DEDICATION & PROFESSIONALISM!!!

Excerpt:

We chose to stay because we have a duty. Our storm bunker is rated to withstand 220 mph winds, which means we're safe from the brute force of the storm. But that doesn't mean we don't need to worry. A storm as strong as Irma could easily wipe out bridges connecting the Keys to the mainland, and we could be without power for weeks.

Related: [Follow live updates on the devastating path of monster storm Irma]

But we'll be here. Mentally, it's draining: All of us are working 12-hour shifts; in between we try to secure our own homes and properties as best we can. But right now, our focus is on protecting the lives and property of the people left behind here in the Keys.

My colleagues and I can still save lives. As conditions become increasingly dangerous tonight, we're going to monitor the radar closely, watching rain bands, keeping an eye on damage and getting the word out to locals about where the worst points of the storm are and how they're moving. When Irma comes closer, we'll focus on the eye wall — the most dangerous part of the storm — and will issue an Extreme Wind Warning when destructive winds are expected to cross an area. As soon as we have news like that, we get that warning to the public to alert them to get to an interior room, or their safest place, as quickly as possible.

There are refuges of last resort set up throughout the Keys, and we can also help get information about those shelters whereabouts to people who are otherwise stuck in vehicles or unsafe structures as the storm intensifies.

We're using social media — such as Twitter and Facebook — to keep in touch with stranded people on the ground.

We're also working with emergency management services and the local sheriff's office to help them position first responders. Using our monitoring equipment, we can let emergency personnel know when sustained tropical storm-force winds have ended, so they can enter the field to rescue victims with minimal risk to their own lives. Timing, in these kinds of disaster scenarios, is crucial.

[northjaxpro]

Wishing all of the Florida folks here nothing but the best. Do some last minute laundry, take a hot shower, bake some cookies...and of course have your favorite beverage of choice. Love to all of you. Xoxo

Thanks Raebie. I appreciate your prayers and thoughts down here. I am sure my other fellow Storm2K Floridians agree with me!!