ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Place is pretty dead for a hurricane relatively close to Florida

Good job on preps guys!

[Blown Away]

5pm track shifted @20 miles East up to @Ft. Myers...

[KBBOCA]

I took a screen shot of the NHC storm surge innundation map for SW Florida

EXTREME danger for Naples, Bonita Springs, Fort Myers, Port Charlotte.... my heart is so heavy...

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map (Inundation)

NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Hurricane IRMA (2017) Advisory 42
From 11 AM EDT Saturday September 09 to 05 PM EDT Tuesday September 12

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

[NDG]

This is incredible and catastrophic if it comes true.






http://www.winknews.com/2017/09/09/cata ... -for-swfl/

[stormreader]

5pm track shifted @20 miles East up to @Ft. Myers then about the same from there...

And it looks like Irma took a little jog west just as she was lifting off the Cuban coast.

[Steve]

Dunno, maybe not the right place here, but I don't know where to write it to - please move to the appropriate place. We turned on 1-min-sat imagery for #Irma. Click to zoom in, (-) to zoom out, into edges for pan.

Choose channels from menu:

https://weather.us/satellite/815-w-213-n/satellite-superhd-1min.html#play

You guys are putting together a pretty great site. Thanks for all the links you and fosterjack have been providing. The bar drop menus are a little clunky for me because I'm not used to them yet. That's not a flaw, it's on me. Thanks again Maine. Per the CONUS Model in HD, it looks like 70mph winds hit the Keys around 2:00am and 80's by 4:00am EDT, 100's by 6am and staying there through about 10:00am. So that's 4 hours of 100+ and you know that it will still be howling from the back side of the system. Good 8 hours of hurricane conditions and maybe a peak of 3 or 4 Cat 2/3.

4:00am
https://weather.us/model-charts/conus-h ... 0900z.html

[wzrgirl1]

Conditions deteriorating here in South Florida. We are beginning to get squalls with tropical storm gusts. Power has flickered on and off. The only time my house has lost power for an extended period was during Wilma. Also spoke with my sister who works for FPL and they expect 3.4 out of 4.6 million to lose power. So, although we are not getting the core, we will be getting sustained hurricane winds on the high cat. 1, low cat. 2 scale tomorrow afternoon. Pray for us.

Wendy

[CronkPSU]

5pm track shifted @20 miles East up to @Ft. Myers then about the same from there...

And it looks like Irma took a little jog west just as she was lifting off the Cuban coast.

i think the NHC line just moved, looks like it is going on a pretty straight line

[Frank P]

well the forecast line updated on the radar loop and now Irma certainly west of the forecast track...

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Snowman67]

Starting to regain that classic buzz saw look again as it pulls away from Cuba.

[Ptarmigan]

That's about as much of Florida as can possibly fit in the NHC cone at this point (when the cone is narrower due to less forecast error so close to landfall). WOW.

Key West in far SW to Jax in far NE all in the cone < 24 hours from landfall.

And even though SE FL is techincally out of the cone (not likely to see storm center) - look at the size of Irma. Very much NOT out of danger.

http://i63.tinypic.com/9bep8l.png

The eastern half of the hurricane is the dirty side.

[stormreader]

This is incredible and catastrophic if it comes true.






http://www.winknews.com/2017/09/09/cata ... -for-swfl/

With falling pressures, some of the surge totals may have to be revised upward some, tomorrow morning. This will truly be a historic hurricane for SW Fl, I think, in terms of both surge and wind. Even if winds can't quite catch up to pressure falls (and we'll see about that), I think the latent energy of this long-track hurricane, and the very rapid pressure falls will create conditions for extreme gusts along the SW Fl coast in the right front quadrant. Really expecting that we will easily hear about gusts to 175 mph.

[Zadok]

They have the cone covering more of Alabama.

[Portastorm]

There's a great map I found that shows what would flood in key west under different surge height. And it really is all but a few blocks in the middle. Even the shelter at the high school is nothing but last resort. It would flood deeply at predicted surge. It's built for cat 5 wind. I imagine they will have people in second floors?

http://www.cityofkeywest-fl.gov/egov/do ... 922484.htm

Interesting. Wonder what the elevation is of the NWS office. They can handle Cat 5 winds but what happens with storm surge?

[SNOW_JOKE]

Less talked about is the potential for ground-flooding due to the rainfall forecast, FL has a aquifer-system beneath the state not only potentially raising the ground-water upwards but also stopping any rain-water from easily draining away due to the combination of the both.

With that in mind, is there any potential for a 'brown-ocean' effect to happen over FL due to the everglades and swamplands.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/906627917484105728




NWS Eastern Region‏Verified account @NWSEastern 20m20 minutes ago

#Irma max winds 125 mph but pressure falling. Trop storm force winds 195 mi from center. Ft. Lauderdale sustained wind 47 mph & gust 70 mph

[Rail Dawg]

I'm sitting in my truck in a parking garage in downtown historic Naples.

I'm about 15 ft up and can go to 40 ft if need be.

Lots of food water batteries gas shotgun chainsaw.

Wind is picking up and the clouds are getting darker.

The anticipation is palatable.

Just did Harvey with many neighbors (I live in Houston) flooded out and now this.

Miss Irma is coming and for better or for worse the time is now arriving.

Good luck my friends!!

[stormreader]

Conditions deteriorating here in South Florida. We are beginning to get squalls with tropical storm gusts. Power has flickered on and off. The only time my house has lost power for an extended period was during Wilma. Also spoke with my sister who works for FPL and they expect 3.4 out of 4.6 million to lose power. So, although we are not getting the core, we will be getting sustained hurricane winds on the high cat. 1, low cat. 2 scale tomorrow afternoon. Pray for us.

Wendy

Yes, in a "normal major" you probably wouldn't begin feeling those affects yet. The storm is still east of you, is what I am talking about. As Irma moves N of course, and then gains a little more longitude west, and you get a little east of the center is when you would normally see weather really deteriorating. Its gonna be tough where you are tomorrow morning.

[KBBOCA]

Matt Pearce, a journalist from LA Times has compiled a Twitter list from Irma featuring local officials and journalists providing on the ground reports:

https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/lists/hurricane-irma

[GCANE]

I'm sitting in my truck in a parking garage in downtown historic Naples.

I'm about 15 ft up and can go to 40 ft if need be.

Lots of food water batteries gas shotgun chainsaw.

Wind is picking up and the clouds are getting darker.

The anticipation is palatable.

Just did Harvey with many neighbors (I live in Houston) flooded out and now this.

Miss Irma is coming and for better or for worse the time is now arriving.

Good luck my friends!!

Stay Safe Rail Dawg
Update when you can.