ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10101 Postby Blinhart » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:59 pm

JBCycloneStan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:that outer eyewall sure looks to be getting much more intense.. needs to cut off the inner one to deepen rapidly


The last EWRC took like 24 hours lol. Hoping this one does too so it doesn't have a chance to strengthen.


Looks like it is about done.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
got ants?
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 3:44 am
Location: Hollywood/Ft Laud

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10102 Postby got ants? » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:59 pm

bordot wrote:Confirmed tornado in Fort Lauderdale. Please stay safe!

 https://twitter.com/gabrielben/status/906650004760264705




Umm, that's a waterspout, not a tornado
Last edited by got ants? on Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11507
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10103 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:59 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10104 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:00 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
GCANE wrote:Significant Tornado Potential starting to rotate onto the east coast.
Going to be a long night.

http://i.imgur.com/i2qacic.gif


Would you say the tornado threat for SE FL tonight was under-forecast?


Yes. We were talking about it earlier this morning once everything moved west. The tornado threat was thought to be moderate but that's because that storm vector would have mostly been offshore and along the mid and upper coast of Florida if it was a track through the SE part of the state. Because it will be the SW, then everything is dragged west accordingly. Lots of wrapping in bands with lots of on and off radar warnings.

Hurricane tornadoes are usually EF0 or EF1 rotating in from the SE instead of the usual SW motion in the southern US. From Live Science:

Cyclone-spawned tornadoes are not fundamentally different from the tornadoes that form in the Great Plains. One difference is that the former tend to be less powerful, usually not exceeding a rating of EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita scale. Secondly, twisters that form in the Plains, like the tornado that struck Moore, Okla., get all of their ingredients from separate places. In the case of the Oklahoma tornado outbreak, for example, the warm air came north from the Gulf of Mexico, while the cold air came south from Canada. In the case of hurricanes, however, they provide all the required components for twisters themselves.
1 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10105 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:01 pm

Shooting gallery

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
659 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Broward County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 730 PM EDT

* At 659 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Port Everglades, or near Fort Lauderdale, moving
west at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10106 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:02 pm

GCANE wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:I live in the line of path of that confirmed tornado, and have relocated to the safest part of my house. I am close to Sawgrass Mall.

Stay safe. Report in when over.


The confirmed touchdown either went north of me or fell apart. Cell looks like it was about 5ish miles north.

That said, another warning out, for a cell entering Port Everglades, and timestamped to be around me again in a half hour.

Not a fun start.
6 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10107 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:02 pm

well radar could be deceiving me but that outer wall has gained very little latitude over the past couple of hours...
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 16027
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#10108 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:04 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 092301
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 35 20170909
225130 2402N 07955W 6963 03015 9850 +120 +112 137066 066 057 002 00
225200 2401N 07957W 6967 03006 9843 +121 +118 135065 067 057 002 03
225230 2400N 07959W 6950 03024 9840 +121 +115 135063 065 056 003 00
225300 2359N 08001W 6967 02997 9831 +123 +115 135065 066 058 003 00
225330 2358N 08003W 6960 02998 9824 +122 //// 134065 067 057 005 01
225400 2356N 08005W 6957 02997 9818 +123 +120 134066 066 057 004 00
225430 2355N 08007W 6941 03006 9809 +124 +121 134065 066 057 003 00
225500 2354N 08009W 6958 02984 9800 +128 +118 133064 064 056 002 00
225530 2352N 08010W 6957 02982 9793 +129 +115 132066 067 056 002 00
225600 2351N 08012W 6955 02978 9785 +131 +119 132068 070 054 003 00
225630 2349N 08014W 6964 02959 9779 +129 +121 130068 069 054 002 00
225700 2348N 08016W 6957 02959 9766 +133 +112 130069 069 054 003 00
225730 2347N 08017W 6948 02964 9758 +132 +105 132071 071 055 002 00
225800 2345N 08019W 6956 02944 9750 +132 +109 131073 075 055 004 00
225830 2344N 08021W 6960 02930 9742 +129 +115 131077 078 054 004 00
225900 2343N 08023W 6955 02927 9735 +126 +118 130078 079 058 008 00
225930 2341N 08024W 6952 02919 9722 +126 +125 128081 083 061 013 00
230000 2340N 08026W 6953 02904 9703 +131 +125 128080 080 061 009 00
230030 2338N 08028W 6958 02885 9691 +130 +121 128082 083 062 007 00
230100 2337N 08030W 6953 02875 9670 +131 +122 125087 088 066 007 00
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4031
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10109 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:04 pm

And another EAS alert.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10110 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:04 pm

Frank P wrote:well radar could be deceiving me but that outer wall has gained very little latitude over the past couple of hours...

I was seeing the same thing. I think Irma is west of the last forecast point but I could be wrong.
1 likes   

Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10111 Postby Raebie » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:04 pm

got ants? wrote:
bordot wrote:Confirmed tornado in Fort Lauderdale. Please stay safe!

 https://twitter.com/gabrielben/status/906650004760264705




Umm, that's a waterspout, not a tornado


If it's over land, it's a tornado.
0 likes   

KBBOCA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10112 Postby KBBOCA » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:05 pm

Meant to include this in my earlier comment about current Miami-Dade power outages. Here's the link you can use to track FPL outages:

https://www.fplmaps.com/
0 likes   

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10113 Postby meriland29 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:05 pm

Anyone know her current max winds ?
1 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10114 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:05 pm

Another tornado-warned storm into South Dade, near Homestead-Miami Speedway
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10115 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:05 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
GCANE wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:I live in the line of path of that confirmed tornado, and have relocated to the safest part of my house. I am close to Sawgrass Mall.

Stay safe. Report in when over.


The confirmed touchdown either went north of me or fell apart. Cell looks like it was about 5ish miles north.

That said, another warning out, for a cell entering Port Everglades, and timestamped to be around me again in a half hour.

Not a fun start.


Trade you?!?

I get the eye... :double:
0 likes   

KBBOCA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1559
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 5:27 am
Location: Formerly Boca Raton, often West Africa. Currently Charlotte NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10116 Postby KBBOCA » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:05 pm

Sunshine Skyway Bridge closed now

Paul Dellegatto⚡️FOX‏Verified account @PaulFox13 10m10 minutes ago

Sunshine Skyway Bridge just closed due to strong winds. Will not reopen for a long time. #Irma
0 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2069
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10117 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:06 pm

meriland29 wrote:Anyone know her current max winds ?


Anything above 30 mph is too damned high. :eek:
2 likes   

dukeblue219
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 535
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10118 Postby dukeblue219 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:07 pm

meriland29 wrote:Anyone know her current max winds ?


You can always get the official advisory numbers from the NHC page or track the recon data live (Tropical Tidbits or Tropical Atlantic websites for starters). The plane is just about to enter the NE quadrant of the eye. Should have numbers in a few minutes. So far it doesn't look like it will be much different -- around 100kt or so at the surface.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11507
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10119 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:07 pm

1 likes   

JBCycloneStan
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10120 Postby JBCycloneStan » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:08 pm

Blinhart wrote:
JBCycloneStan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:that outer eyewall sure looks to be getting much more intense.. needs to cut off the inner one to deepen rapidly


The last EWRC took like 24 hours lol. Hoping this one does too so it doesn't have a chance to strengthen.


Looks like it is about done.


I'll believe it when I see it. Has recon detected a double wind maximum?
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests