ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10121 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:09 pm

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
704 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

FLC011-092330-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-170909T2330Z/
Broward FL-
704 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY...

At 704 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Port Everglades, or over Fort Lauderdale, moving
west at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Franklin Park, Washington Park, Golden Heights, Melrose Park,
Chula Vista, Broadview Park, Twin Lakes and Chambers Estates
around 710 PM EDT.
Lauderhill, Lauderdale Lakes, St. George, Village Park, Nova
Southeastern University, Broadview-Pompano Park and Palm Aire
around 715 PM EDT.
Davie, Sunrise, Tamarac, North Lauderdale and Pine Island Ridge
around 720 PM EDT.
Plantation and Sawgrass Mills Mall around 725 PM EDT.
Weston around 730 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Fort
Lauderdale Beach, North Pompano Beach, Markham Park, Riverland
Village, North Andrews Gardens, Ramblewood East, Downtown Davie,
Roosevelt Gardens, Terra Mar and Intersection I-595 And I-95.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2624 8007 2602 8011 2612 8039 2632 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 106DEG 31KT 2611 8012

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

IRL
Tornado Warning
FLC086-092330-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0027.170909T2302Z-170909T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
702 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 730 PM EDT

* At 702 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Homestead Miami Speedway, moving west at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Homestead General Airport and Royal Palm Ranger around 715 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2549 8033 2534 8039 2541 8076 2559 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 098DEG 50KT 2542 8041

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10122 Postby stormreader » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:10 pm

Continues to wobble further west just north of the Cuban coast. Still waiting for that north turn. Doesn't necessarily mean that it will affect further north along the Fl coast, but it does make you wonder. It will make that north move and then there is the time frame (just how much time over water off the coast of Fl---time for intensification) before landfall somewhere along the west coast of Fl.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10123 Postby ava_ati » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:11 pm

Steve wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
GCANE wrote:Significant Tornado Potential starting to rotate onto the east coast.
Going to be a long night.

http://i.imgur.com/i2qacic.gif


Would you say the tornado threat for SE FL tonight was under-forecast?


Yes. We were talking about it earlier this morning once everything moved west. The tornado threat was thought to be moderate but that's because that storm vector would have mostly been offshore and along the mid and upper coast of Florida if it was a track through the SE part of the state. Because it will be the SW, then everything is dragged west accordingly. Lots of wrapping in bands with lots of on and off radar warnings.

Hurricane tornadoes are usually EF0 or EF1 rotating in from the SE instead of the usual SW motion in the southern US. From Live Science:

Cyclone-spawned tornadoes are not fundamentally different from the tornadoes that form in the Great Plains. One difference is that the former tend to be less powerful, usually not exceeding a rating of EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita scale. Secondly, twisters that form in the Plains, like the tornado that struck Moore, Okla., get all of their ingredients from separate places. In the case of the Oklahoma tornado outbreak, for example, the warm air came north from the Gulf of Mexico, while the cold air came south from Canada. In the case of hurricanes, however, they provide all the required components for twisters themselves.


With all of this shear across mid-Florida, will that increase as the storm moves north? They are giving us a moderate here in NE Florida but just pure common sense tells me that if you have upper level winds at 45 kts going in the opposite direction of a cyclone that has natural spin to begin with that threat of tornadoes should be quite high....

I am no pro but that seems like a really bad setup.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10124 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:12 pm

I think any delay will send Irma farther W of the track...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10125 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:12 pm

its been cralwing or stalled the last hour.. or so.. we dont need that..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10126 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:13 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
Frank P wrote:well radar could be deceiving me but that outer wall has gained very little latitude over the past couple of hours...

I was seeing the same thing. I think Irma is west of the last forecast point but I could be wrong.


Shes turning...add in EWRC. Going to start polward in next 3-6 hrs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10127 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its been cralwing or stalled the last hour.. or so.. we dont need that..


Unless it turns hard right. I really do not like the prospect of enduring the eye of the storm. :grr:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10128 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:14 pm

New tornado warned storm in Lantana & Hypoluxo, south Palm Beach County
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#10129 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:15 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 092311
NOAA2 2711A IRMA HDOB 36 20170909
230130 2336N 08032W 6956 02851 9650 +132 +120 125091 094 071 008 00
230200 2334N 08033W 6963 02818 9625 +131 +111 124098 100 074 013 00
230230 2333N 08035W 6958 02790 9583 +134 +128 124102 104 077 031 00
230300 2331N 08037W 6906 02812 9533 +135 //// 126087 096 087 035 01
230330 2330N 08039W 6932 02753 9491 +147 //// 121083 085 091 012 01
230400 2328N 08041W 6938 02707 9446 +156 +133 116087 087 093 006 00
230430 2327N 08043W 6956 02635 9383 +171 +136 114086 092 084 010 00
230500 2325N 08044W 6951 02607 9341 +169 +160 111054 060 091 009 03
230530 2323N 08045W 6952 02590 9320 +175 +159 111034 041 035 002 00
230600 2321N 08046W 6957 02575 9304 +183 +160 126013 019 019 002 03
230630 2319N 08047W 6951 02586 9307 +182 +153 083004 006 015 001 00
230700 2318N 08049W 6952 02588 9313 +182 +144 352013 017 014 001 03
230730 2317N 08051W 6950 02598 9321 +180 +141 335020 022 010 002 03
230800 2318N 08052W 6938 02607 9315 +184 +144 342024 027 /// /// 03
230830 2320N 08053W 6957 02591 9325 +179 +151 014038 045 046 002 00
230900 2322N 08054W 6961 02601 9343 +174 +155 023060 066 062 005 00
230930 2323N 08055W 6957 02633 9378 +167 +154 032083 089 070 007 00
231000 2325N 08056W 6967 02657 9423 +165 +116 037088 090 077 004 00
231030 2326N 08057W 6964 02689 9453 +163 +129 038085 085 084 005 00
231100 2328N 08058W 6957 02724 9484 +157 +136 042085 089 090 009 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10130 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:15 pm

It's always possible the intensity of Irma is pumping up the ridge more than the models expect and she will make a broader less drastic turn to the north. Lots of the Euro ensembles never make landfall on the peninsula and keep the center 20-30 miles off the coast the whole way up. This will save many inland areas from the most extreme winds but will keep Irma strong and create horrific storm surge in Tampa Bay.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10131 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:15 pm

pressure 930 in the minobs lets see what the dropsonde says.. that over 10 mb on the minobs alone since the flight arived.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10132 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:15 pm

Pressure still dropping. 930 extrap.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10133 Postby dukeblue219 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:16 pm

Recon extrapolated 930mb and found 93 knot surface winds on the SFMR. We'll see what the vortex message says but the pressure looks to be down another smidge.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10134 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:17 pm

Could it make a run at below 900 mb?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10135 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:18 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Could it make a run at below 900 mb?


only if that inner eye collapses soon.. running out of time for that kind of pressure..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10136 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its been cralwing or stalled the last hour.. or so.. we dont need that..


Yep she has put on the brakes that is for sure.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10137 Postby Mattie2 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:19 pm

I really feel for those people that evacuated to Tampa and elsewhere and now are in the bulls eye. May be more loss of life in less sturdy buildings than if they stayed. Just no way to judge what to do, I guess. Prayers for all.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10138 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:pressure 930 in the minobs lets see what the dropsonde says.. that over 10 mb on the minobs alone since the flight arived.


Looks like Irma this time is spreading the winds rather than concentrating it, kind of similar to Ike in 2008 after it crossed Cuba. Probably good with regards to not getting extreme winds but it will mean the wind swathe will be huge.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10139 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its been cralwing or stalled the last hour.. or so.. we dont need that..


Yep she has put on the brakes that is for sure.


she is still very close to the 21z position ... but two hours later.. it wont make the 6z position unles it start really moving..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#10140 Postby KBBOCA » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:21 pm

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