ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Very slow motion at the moment for sure, still drifting westwards again but I think that the lift out is now only a matter of a couple of hours away, can't imagine this will last much longer.

maybe a little ridge pumping...

though you can see the mid to upper low over the lower MS valley dropping south.. only a mater of time..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Last evening, around this time, it was written...Irma should begin her move to the WNW to NW motion, in the next 12-18 hours. Now this evening; it is only a matter of time, You are correct!

Here it is, over 24 hours later and Irma still has not made that change in motion.

Irma has moved within the cone of the NHC. The issue is; from a timing standpoint, she has been slow to change direction within the forecast cone.

That said, with time, weather patterns change and the dynamics could change such that she takes a different path. Time will tell and is a huge factor, with being so close to a landfall.

I guess you can say; "Stay tuned folks"!

What does "it was written" mean? Some poster said that? They were a little fast. Look at the NHC's track from yesterday and Thursday as well as the Euro's. Despite being a little bit slower because it went a little farther south and interacted with Cuba, nothing else is appreciably different. Sometimes things take time. Look at it from a bigger overview if you need to.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

[Blown Away]

mid level shear will be increases will be increases as that low drops south.. so the window will be closing for any RI in about 12 to 18 hours.

Won't this delay allow Irma to go more W of the track?

[Nimbus]

mid level shear will be increases will be increases as that low drops south.. so the window will be closing for any RI in about 12 to 18 hours.

Saw that strange motion the "radar center" was making and looked at the high resolution visible to see what was going on. Looks like that old huge outer eyewall is spiraling the inner eyewall around 360 degrees. The slower forward motion is probably good news since it gives more time for the Arkansas now Mississippi upper level low to bring some of that dry shear in while Irma is still a little weaker from her stay in Cuba.

[ozonepete]

its been cralwing or stalled the last hour.. or so.. we dont need that..

Could very well be starting a clockwise loop? The Euro actually had some indications of that on and off over the last few days. Would be a sensible response to an abruptly forced recurve.

So Irma could actually stall and then just loop around to the NNW rather than a curve north?

Sure. If you look at the historical record of hurricane loops, most of them return to their original direction after they loop. That's why if Irma does loop here it most likely only affects the timing (delays forecast point arrival times) but not the expected path. Of course there are always exceptions, but due to the overall steering currents there's nothing that indicates the NHC track is off at all.

[Bamagirl2408]

8pm

23.3 80.8
WNW 7mph at 290

Lost .1 latitude from 7pm position.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Steve]

8pm

23.3 80.8
WNW 7mph at 290

Lost .1 latitude from 7pm position.

I don't exactly remember, but I thought it was moving NW about 81.3 or 81.4 on a couple of the UKMET runs which has been one of the better performing models with Irma. Too tough to search with time delays. But I seem to remember beyond 81.x it was predominately NNW.

[Preemptivestrike]

Meanwhile Miami looks like its about to be rocked.

[AxaltaRacing24]

8pm

23.3 80.8
WNW 7mph at 290

Lost .1 latitude from 7pm position.

It appears to be looping.

[Hurricaneman]

saved radar loop

https://i.imgur.com/hShR9cR.gif

Looks like the inner eye wall is expanding into the outer one and merging, similar to what happened 4 days ago

[jlauderdal]

We are in Lantana. 7 of us are in an interior bathroom.

Lantana? Unless there is a tornado in the area it seems too early for that..

Yes, we like sitting in the bathroom for no reason.

We got an extreme alert of tornado activity and told to go to safe room. So we did.

Bunch of tornado warnings in se Florida, heading to the bathroom was a good idea

Sent from my DL8006 using Tapatalk

[MrStormX]

A west track with the center not making landfall significantly increases potential storm surge in Tampa Bay. Right now they are forecasting 5-8 feet in Tampa.

The maximum Cat 4 numbers are over 20 feet in many locations. They didn't evacuate for 20 feet.

Indeed the angle of incidence from which Irma would theoretically hit the coast makes that scenario a disturbing possibility, should the right conditions manifest.

[ronyan]

Yeah eyewalls look very close together, doubt that it can maintain that structure for long.

[ObsessedMiami]

Was a pretty snappy feeder band that went through Miami-Dade 15 min ago. Still have power but the weather radio hasn't stopped with Tornado warnings

[KWT]

The eye is really wobbling around at the moment, steering currents are really weak now and I've gotta think that a turn is pretty close to happening. ECM ensembles did suggest it will be moving very slowly over the next 12hrs before it hooks into the stronger steering currents taking it northwards.

Eyewalls are indeed very close to each other now, one is going to have to give.

[MrStormX]

IMO this current eye will soon collapse, and in time give way to a new eye.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Stalling out tells me the steering currents are collapsing; the northwest turn should commence shortly, IMO.

[SkeetoBite]

[lrak]

Goodness wouldn't I have been grateful for a generator during Harvey. If you plan to go back home after it has passed you'll need a generator.

[AutoPenalti]

I wonder if the collapsed steering would mean it gets steered due north or start moving NNW...